Equity Profile

FERG

Ferguson Enterprises Inc.

IndustrialsTrading Companies & Distributors$48.0B

Jun8Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is a leading distributor of plumbing and heating products, serving both residential and commercial markets....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will be keen to see if Ferguson can continue its trend of beating expectations.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to demand in the construction sector.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FERG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is a leading distributor of plumbing and heating products, serving both residential and commercial markets. As a major player in the industrial sector, it benefits from trends in construction and infrastructure spending, making it a key company to watch in the current economic climate.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 6Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

67%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.07%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.91%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter (Q1-2026), Ferguson reported an EPS of $2.28, surpassing estimates by 6.69%. However, the stock fell by 3.06% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, Wall Street is cautiously optimistic about Ferguson's upcoming earnings, given its recent history of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns about revenue growth and market conditions could temper enthusiasm.

Bull Case

If Ferguson continues its trend of exceeding EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could lead to a significant stock price increase, as seen in previous quarters.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports lower revenue growth due to market challenges, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, similar to past performance after misses.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and a strong performance could boost investor confidence, while a miss could lead to negative sentiment.

What is the outlook for revenue growth in the upcoming quarter?

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to capitalize on market demand, and any signs of weakness could impact stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ferguson's ability to leverage its market position for revenue growth, especially given recent trends in construction spending.

Supporting Evidence

Ferguson has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, which may not be fully reflected in current expectations.

The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, indicating potential undervaluation.

Recent economic indicators suggest a rebound in construction activity, which could benefit Ferguson more than anticipated.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge current bearish sentiment and lead to a positive reassessment of the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is focused on Ferguson's ability to maintain profitability and growth amidst economic uncertainties, making these metrics critical.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.50 or higher, combined with revenue growth of at least 10%, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.00 or negative revenue growth would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.0%

Historical Avg

±8.14%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 4%, which is lower than the historical average of 8.14%, suggesting a more cautious outlook.

Options are pricing a 4% move, but the stock has averaged an 8.14% move historically, indicating a potentially undervalued setup.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

27.1%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 4.00Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options cheap in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ferguson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 6.77%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 7.83%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on revenue growth projections for the upcoming quarter.
2Insights into cost management and gross margin trends.
3Management's commentary on market conditions and demand in the construction sector.
4Details on any new product lines or services that could drive future growth.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive pressures in the industry.

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Company Snapshot

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is a leading distributor of plumbing and heating products, serving both residential and commercial markets....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will be keen to see if Ferguson can continue its trend of beating expectations.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to demand in the construction sector.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FERG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 6Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

67%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.07%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.91%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ferguson continues its trend of exceeding EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could lead to a significant stock price increase, as seen in previous quarters.

Bear Case

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and a strong performance could boost investor confidence, while a miss could lead to negative sentiment.

What is the outlook for revenue growth in the upcoming quarter?

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to capitalize on market demand, and any signs of weakness could impact stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ferguson's ability to leverage its market position for revenue growth, especially given recent trends in construction spending.

Supporting Evidence

Ferguson has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, which may not be fully reflected in current expectations.

The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, indicating potential undervaluation.

Recent economic indicators suggest a rebound in construction activity, which could benefit Ferguson more than anticipated.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge current bearish sentiment and lead to a positive reassessment of the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is focused on Ferguson's ability to maintain profitability and growth amidst economic uncertainties, making these metrics critical.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.50 or higher, combined with revenue growth of at least 10%, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.00 or negative revenue growth would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.0%

Historical Avg

±8.14%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 4%, which is lower than the historical average of 8.14%, suggesting a more cautious outlook.

Options are pricing a 4% move, but the stock has averaged an 8.14% move historically, indicating a potentially undervalued setup.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

27.1%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 4.00Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options cheap in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ferguson beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 6.77%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 7.83%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on revenue growth projections for the upcoming quarter.
2Insights into cost management and gross margin trends.
3Management's commentary on market conditions and demand in the construction sector.
4Details on any new product lines or services that could drive future growth.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive pressures in the industry.