Equity Profile

FLY

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

IndustrialsAerospace & Defense$5.9B

Aug12Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a company in the aerospace and defense sector, focusing on developing small to medium-sized launch vehicles for satellite deployment....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be looking for any signs of improvement or continued losses.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's ability to scale and capture market share in the competitive aerospace sector.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a company in the aerospace and defense sector, focusing on developing small to medium-sized launch vehicles for satellite deployment. With a market cap of $9 billion, it plays a crucial role in the growing space industry, which is increasingly important for communications, scientific research, and national security.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-378.72%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.38%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Firefly Aerospace reported an EPS of -$0.46, which was better than the expected -$0.50, resulting in a positive surprise. However, the stock still declined by 1.27% the following day, indicating cautious investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as the company has shown some ability to beat EPS estimates, but the stock reaction has been negative post-earnings. Investors will be keen to see if this trend continues or if the company can turn around its stock performance.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on the potential for Firefly to report a smaller loss than expected and show signs of revenue growth, which could boost investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again or provides weak guidance, it could reinforce concerns about its financial health and lead to further declines in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, the market will closely watch this figure to gauge financial health and operational efficiency.

What insights can management provide regarding revenue growth and future contracts?

Understanding revenue trends and potential contracts is crucial for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Firefly's potential for a quicker turnaround in profitability, as evidenced by its recent EPS surprises. Investors might be overly focused on the negative historical performance without considering the company's strategic contracts and market position.

Supporting Evidence

Firefly has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating potential for better performance than expected.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, which may reflect higher investor interest in the stock's potential upside.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than -$0.40, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Firefly can stabilize its financial performance and regain investor confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS loss of less than -$0.40, coupled with indications of revenue growth, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than -$0.50, along with no clear guidance on revenue growth, would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.42%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±12.3% while FLY has averaged ±4.0% over the last 4 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.7%

30d HV

122.1%

Calls (1.3M)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (783K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 21 (19%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 17 of 21 (81%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.6% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$169,607.84

3,766 sh

1 insider

Net

$169,607.84

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

General CounselWheeler David Leigh
$169,607.84

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Firefly beats EPS expectations and provides positive guidance, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +2.18%.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but lack strong guidance, the stock may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement.

Miss

If the company misses EPS estimates, history suggests an average one-day move of -4.29%, which could further dampen investor sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new contracts or partnerships that could drive revenue growth.
2Details on cost management strategies that could improve profitability.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and how Firefly plans to differentiate itself.
4Management's outlook on the aerospace market and demand for launch services.
5Clarification on any operational challenges faced in the last quarter.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a company in the aerospace and defense sector, focusing on developing small to medium-sized launch vehicles for satellite deployment....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be looking for any signs of improvement or continued losses.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's ability to scale and capture market share in the competitive aerospace sector.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

FLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-378.72%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.38%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again or provides weak guidance, it could reinforce concerns about its financial health and lead to further declines in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, the market will closely watch this figure to gauge financial health and operational efficiency.

What insights can management provide regarding revenue growth and future contracts?

Understanding revenue trends and potential contracts is crucial for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

Supporting Evidence

Firefly has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating potential for better performance than expected.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, which may reflect higher investor interest in the stock's potential upside.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than -$0.40, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Firefly can stabilize its financial performance and regain investor confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS loss of less than -$0.40, coupled with indications of revenue growth, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than -$0.50, along with no clear guidance on revenue growth, would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.42%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±12.3% while FLY has averaged ±4.0% over the last 4 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.7%

30d HV

122.1%

Calls (1.3M)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (783K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 21 (19%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$169,607.84

3,766 sh

1 insider

Net

$169,607.84

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

General CounselWheeler David Leigh
$169,607.84

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Firefly beats EPS expectations and provides positive guidance, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +2.18%.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but lack strong guidance, the stock may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement.

Miss

If the company misses EPS estimates, history suggests an average one-day move of -4.29%, which could further dampen investor sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new contracts or partnerships that could drive revenue growth.
2Details on cost management strategies that could improve profitability.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and how Firefly plans to differentiate itself.
4Management's outlook on the aerospace market and demand for launch services.
5Clarification on any operational challenges faced in the last quarter.