Equity Profile

GPOR

Gulfport Energy Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production$3.0B

Feb25Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2022After Close5:00 PM EST

Company Snapshot

Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR) is an energy company focused on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the oil and gas sector, which is influenced by global energy demand and prices.

Key Metrics to Watch

Production Volume

This metric indicates how much oil and gas Gulfport is producing, which directly impacts revenue.

N/A

Average Selling Price

The price at which Gulfport sells its oil and gas is crucial for determining revenue and profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

GPOR Q2-2022 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+315.09%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.12%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2022, Gulfport reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $6.15, beating estimates by 13.62%. The stock reacted positively, increasing by 3.43% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on increasing production efficiency.
Commitment to managing costs effectively.
Plans to explore new drilling opportunities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Gulfport's upcoming earnings, especially after a strong performance last quarter. However, uncertainty remains regarding production levels and costs.

Bull Case

If Gulfport can maintain or increase production while keeping costs low, it could see significant revenue growth, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if production falls short or costs rise unexpectedly, it could lead to disappointing earnings and a negative market response.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected production volume for the upcoming quarter?

Production volume is a key driver of revenue, and any significant changes could impact earnings expectations.

How are operating expenses trending compared to previous quarters?

Understanding cost management will be crucial for assessing profitability in the current market environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Gulfport's ability to manage costs effectively while increasing production, which could lead to a surprise in earnings.

Supporting Evidence

Gulfport's recent performance shows a strong ability to beat EPS estimates, indicating potential for continued success.

The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, suggesting that investors may be overly cautious.

Key Risk

If production volume exceeds 100,000 barrels per day, it could significantly alter earnings expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around balancing production growth with cost management in a fluctuating energy market.

Bull Confirmed If

Production volume exceeding 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If operating expenses rise above $30 per barrel, it would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.9%

Historical Avg

±5.8%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a modest move of about 3.9%, suggesting that investors expect some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.9% while GPOR has averaged ±5.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

32.4%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.10Puts (1K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Gulfport beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.27%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report could lead to muted stock movement, as investors await clearer guidance on future performance.

Miss

If Gulfport misses earnings expectations, the stock could decline by about 2.03%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production volume targets for the upcoming quarter.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into market conditions affecting oil and gas prices.
4Any commentary on future drilling plans or new projects.
5Management's outlook on the energy market for the rest of the year.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Production Volume

This metric indicates how much oil and gas Gulfport is producing, which directly impacts revenue.

N/A

Average Selling Price

The price at which Gulfport sells its oil and gas is crucial for determining revenue and profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

GPOR Q2-2022 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+315.09%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.12%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2022, Gulfport reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $6.15, beating estimates by 13.62%. The stock reacted positively, increasing by 3.43% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on increasing production efficiency.
Commitment to managing costs effectively.
Plans to explore new drilling opportunities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Gulfport's upcoming earnings, especially after a strong performance last quarter. However, uncertainty remains regarding production levels and costs.

Bull Case

If Gulfport can maintain or increase production while keeping costs low, it could see significant revenue growth, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if production falls short or costs rise unexpectedly, it could lead to disappointing earnings and a negative market response.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected production volume for the upcoming quarter?

Production volume is a key driver of revenue, and any significant changes could impact earnings expectations.

How are operating expenses trending compared to previous quarters?

Understanding cost management will be crucial for assessing profitability in the current market environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Gulfport's ability to manage costs effectively while increasing production, which could lead to a surprise in earnings.

Supporting Evidence

Gulfport's recent performance shows a strong ability to beat EPS estimates, indicating potential for continued success.

The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, suggesting that investors may be overly cautious.

Key Risk

If production volume exceeds 100,000 barrels per day, it could significantly alter earnings expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around balancing production growth with cost management in a fluctuating energy market.

Bull Confirmed If

Production volume exceeding 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If operating expenses rise above $30 per barrel, it would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.9%

Historical Avg

±5.8%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a modest move of about 3.9%, suggesting that investors expect some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.9% while GPOR has averaged ±5.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

32.4%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.10Puts (1K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Gulfport beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.27%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report could lead to muted stock movement, as investors await clearer guidance on future performance.

Miss

If Gulfport misses earnings expectations, the stock could decline by about 2.03%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production volume targets for the upcoming quarter.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into market conditions affecting oil and gas prices.
4Any commentary on future drilling plans or new projects.
5Management's outlook on the energy market for the rest of the year.