Equity Profile

HOG

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryMotorcycle Manufacturers$2.6B

May5Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market7:00 AM EDT

Harley-Davidson Misses on EPS, Stock Up 8.19%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.22	$0.22	-36.05%
Revenue	—	$996M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Harley-Davidson Misses on EPS, Stock Up 8.19%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.22	$0.22	-36.05%
Revenue	—	$996M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Harley-Davidson's earnings report showed an EPS that met expectations but had a significant surprise in the negative direction. Despite this, the stock reacted positively, rising by 8.19%. This increase may indicate investor optimism or a response to other factors not detailed in the earnings report.

Company Snapshot

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is a well-known motorcycle manufacturer that operates in the consumer discretionary sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors assess the company's financial health.

$0.22

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its motorcycles.

$996M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is a well-known motorcycle manufacturer that operates in the consumer discretionary sector. The company is significant for its iconic brand and loyal customer base, which are crucial in a competitive market where consumer spending can fluctuate.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.56%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Harley-Davidson reported a significant EPS miss at -$2.44, which was much lower than the expected -$0.92. Despite this, the stock saw a modest increase of 3.97% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Harley-Davidson's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. However, the company has faced volatility in its earnings history, which adds uncertainty.

Bull Case

If Harley-Davidson can meet or exceed the EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal a turnaround in performance, boosting investor confidence and potentially leading to a stock rally.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise concerns about its long-term viability and lead to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.22

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors assess the company's financial health.

Revenue

$996M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its motorcycles.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Harley-Davidson's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.22?

This figure is crucial as it will indicate whether the company is on a path to recovery or if it continues to struggle.

How does the company plan to address the declining sales trend seen in previous quarters?

Management's strategy for boosting sales will be pivotal in determining investor confidence and future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Harley-Davidson's ability to recover, as recent product launches could drive unexpected sales growth.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a loyal customer base that may respond positively to new offerings.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move, suggesting that traders anticipate significant news.

Past performance shows that the stock can rebound sharply after a miss if future guidance is strong.

Key Risk

If Harley-Davidson's new product lines show strong initial sales, it could invalidate the bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is critical as it will reveal whether Harley-Davidson can stabilize its earnings after a series of misses.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.22 or higher would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.22 would reinforce bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.04%

Historical Avg

±6.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while HOG has averaged ±6.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.1%

30d HV

41.4%

Calls (376K)P/C Ratio: 1.37Puts (515K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Harley-Davidson beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.1%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of about 5.3%.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$45,003.00–$150,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCTim MooreRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Management's commentary on strategies to improve sales and profitability.
3Insights into consumer demand trends and how they are affecting production.
4Any changes in guidance for the upcoming quarters.
5Responses to competitive pressures in the motorcycle market.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is a well-known motorcycle manufacturer that operates in the consumer discretionary sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors assess the company's financial health.

$0.22

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its motorcycles.

$996M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.56%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Harley-Davidson reported a significant EPS miss at -$2.44, which was much lower than the expected -$0.92. Despite this, the stock saw a modest increase of 3.97% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Harley-Davidson can meet or exceed the EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal a turnaround in performance, boosting investor confidence and potentially leading to a stock rally.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise concerns about its long-term viability and lead to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.22

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors assess the company's financial health.

Revenue

$996M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its motorcycles.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Harley-Davidson's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.22?

This figure is crucial as it will indicate whether the company is on a path to recovery or if it continues to struggle.

How does the company plan to address the declining sales trend seen in previous quarters?

Management's strategy for boosting sales will be pivotal in determining investor confidence and future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Harley-Davidson's ability to recover, as recent product launches could drive unexpected sales growth.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a loyal customer base that may respond positively to new offerings.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move, suggesting that traders anticipate significant news.

Past performance shows that the stock can rebound sharply after a miss if future guidance is strong.

Key Risk

If Harley-Davidson's new product lines show strong initial sales, it could invalidate the bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is critical as it will reveal whether Harley-Davidson can stabilize its earnings after a series of misses.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.22 or higher would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.22 would reinforce bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.04%

Historical Avg

±6.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while HOG has averaged ±6.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.1%

30d HV

41.4%

Calls (376K)P/C Ratio: 1.37Puts (515K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Harley-Davidson beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.1%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of about 5.3%.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$45,003.00–$150,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCTim MooreRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Management's commentary on strategies to improve sales and profitability.
3Insights into consumer demand trends and how they are affecting production.
4Any changes in guidance for the upcoming quarters.
5Responses to competitive pressures in the motorcycle market.