Equity Profile

HTGC

Hercules Capital, Inc.

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$2.9B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Net Investment Income

This metric reflects the company's ability to generate income from its investments, which is crucial for assessing profitability this quarter.

N/A

Portfolio Growth Rate

Investors will be keen to see how quickly Hercules is expanding its investment portfolio, as this indicates future revenue potential.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HTGC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) is a financial services company that specializes in providing debt and equity financing to growth-stage companies, primarily in the technology and life sciences sectors. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the asset management and custody banking industry, helping innovative firms access the capital they need to grow.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Hercules Capital reported an EPS of $0.48, slightly beating expectations of $0.47. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.79% the following day, indicating some investor confidence.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining a strong portfolio of growth-stage companies.
Commitment to managing risk effectively in the current economic climate.
Plans to continue diversifying investment strategies to enhance returns.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Hercules Capital's upcoming earnings are mixed, with uncertainty surrounding portfolio performance and income generation.

Bull Case

If Hercules shows strong portfolio growth and maintains low default rates, it could signal robust financial health and attract more investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports higher default rates or stagnant portfolio growth, it may raise concerns about its risk management and future profitability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current default rate on loans in the portfolio?

This figure will be critical in assessing the risk profile of Hercules' investments and could significantly impact investor confidence.

How much has the investment portfolio grown compared to last quarter?

Portfolio growth is a key indicator of Hercules' ability to generate future income and attract new clients.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Hercules Capital's ability to manage its portfolio effectively, especially in a challenging economic environment.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical EPS surprises indicate a potential for consistent performance.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, which may not align with the actual volatility observed in past quarters.

Key Risk

If the default rate comes in below 3%, it could challenge the bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on Hercules' ability to manage risk while expanding its investment portfolio.

Bull Confirmed If

A portfolio growth rate exceeding 10% quarter-over-quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A default rate exceeding 5% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.74%

Historical Avg

±0.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.7% while HTGC has averaged ±0.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

22.8%

Calls (10K)P/C Ratio: 1.13Puts (8K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Hercules beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.79%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may remain flat or see a slight decline.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 0.38%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$50,001.00–$100,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCVirginia FoxxRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the default rate of loans in the portfolio.
2Details on the growth rate of the investment portfolio compared to previous quarters.
3Management's commentary on risk management strategies in the current economic climate.
4Insights into new sectors or companies being targeted for investment.
5Any changes to dividend policies or capital allocation strategies.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Net Investment Income

This metric reflects the company's ability to generate income from its investments, which is crucial for assessing profitability this quarter.

N/A

Portfolio Growth Rate

Investors will be keen to see how quickly Hercules is expanding its investment portfolio, as this indicates future revenue potential.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

HTGC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Hercules Capital reported an EPS of $0.48, slightly beating expectations of $0.47. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.79% the following day, indicating some investor confidence.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining a strong portfolio of growth-stage companies.
Commitment to managing risk effectively in the current economic climate.
Plans to continue diversifying investment strategies to enhance returns.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Hercules Capital's upcoming earnings are mixed, with uncertainty surrounding portfolio performance and income generation.

Bull Case

If Hercules shows strong portfolio growth and maintains low default rates, it could signal robust financial health and attract more investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports higher default rates or stagnant portfolio growth, it may raise concerns about its risk management and future profitability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current default rate on loans in the portfolio?

This figure will be critical in assessing the risk profile of Hercules' investments and could significantly impact investor confidence.

How much has the investment portfolio grown compared to last quarter?

Portfolio growth is a key indicator of Hercules' ability to generate future income and attract new clients.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Hercules Capital's ability to manage its portfolio effectively, especially in a challenging economic environment.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical EPS surprises indicate a potential for consistent performance.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, which may not align with the actual volatility observed in past quarters.

Key Risk

If the default rate comes in below 3%, it could challenge the bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on Hercules' ability to manage risk while expanding its investment portfolio.

Bull Confirmed If

A portfolio growth rate exceeding 10% quarter-over-quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A default rate exceeding 5% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.74%

Historical Avg

±0.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.7% while HTGC has averaged ±0.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

22.8%

Calls (10K)P/C Ratio: 1.13Puts (8K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Hercules beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.79%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may remain flat or see a slight decline.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 0.38%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$50,001.00–$100,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-NCVirginia FoxxRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the default rate of loans in the portfolio.
2Details on the growth rate of the investment portfolio compared to previous quarters.
3Management's commentary on risk management strategies in the current economic climate.
4Insights into new sectors or companies being targeted for investment.
5Any changes to dividend policies or capital allocation strategies.