Equity Profile

KMX

CarMax, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$8.5B

Jun17Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2027Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

CarMax, Inc. is a leading retailer of used cars in the U.S., operating a large network of stores that offer a wide selection of vehicles....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

$0.96

Revenue

Revenue reflects the total sales and is crucial for understanding the company's growth trajectory.

$7.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KMX Q1-2027 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

CarMax, Inc. is a leading retailer of used cars in the U.S., operating a large network of stores that offer a wide selection of vehicles. As a part of the consumer discretionary sector, it is influenced by trends in consumer spending and the automotive market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

-6.71%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, CarMax reported an EPS of $0.34, significantly beating expectations, which led to a notable drop in stock price the following day. This volatility highlights the market's sensitivity to earnings surprises.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic, expecting CarMax to report an EPS of $0.96 and revenue of $7.4B. However, the company has had mixed results in recent quarters, leading to uncertainty.

Bull Case

If CarMax can meet or exceed the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal a recovery in sales and consumer demand, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the used car market, potentially leading to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.96

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue

$7.4B

Revenue reflects the total sales and is crucial for understanding the company's growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will CarMax's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.96?

This figure is crucial for assessing the company's profitability and could influence investor sentiment significantly.

What insights will management provide regarding revenue growth, particularly in light of recent market trends?

Understanding revenue performance will help gauge the company's ability to navigate challenges in the used car market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for CarMax to capitalize on improving consumer sentiment and demand in the used car market.

Supporting Evidence

Recent earnings surprises indicate a potential for stronger performance than anticipated.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, indicating that investors expect significant movement based on the earnings report.

Key Risk

If CarMax reports an EPS significantly above $1.00, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether CarMax can sustain its profitability amidst fluctuating consumer demand and economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.83 would indicate ongoing struggles and could lead to further stock declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.06%

Historical Avg

±9.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.1% while KMX has averaged ±9.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

42.6%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (70K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CarMax beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 6.6%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 8.19%, as the market reacts negatively to disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on inventory levels and how they are impacting sales.
2Management's outlook on consumer demand for used cars in the coming months.
3Details on operational efficiencies that could improve margins.
4Insights into competitive pressures and how CarMax plans to address them.
5Any commentary on financing options for customers and its impact on sales.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

CarMax, Inc. is a leading retailer of used cars in the U.S., operating a large network of stores that offer a wide selection of vehicles....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

$0.96

Revenue

Revenue reflects the total sales and is crucial for understanding the company's growth trajectory.

$7.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KMX Q1-2027 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

-6.71%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic, expecting CarMax to report an EPS of $0.96 and revenue of $7.4B. However, the company has had mixed results in recent quarters, leading to uncertainty.

Bull Case

If CarMax can meet or exceed the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal a recovery in sales and consumer demand, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the used car market, potentially leading to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.96

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue

$7.4B

Revenue reflects the total sales and is crucial for understanding the company's growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will CarMax's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.96?

This figure is crucial for assessing the company's profitability and could influence investor sentiment significantly.

What insights will management provide regarding revenue growth, particularly in light of recent market trends?

Understanding revenue performance will help gauge the company's ability to navigate challenges in the used car market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for CarMax to capitalize on improving consumer sentiment and demand in the used car market.

Supporting Evidence

Recent earnings surprises indicate a potential for stronger performance than anticipated.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, indicating that investors expect significant movement based on the earnings report.

Key Risk

If CarMax reports an EPS significantly above $1.00, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether CarMax can sustain its profitability amidst fluctuating consumer demand and economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.83 would indicate ongoing struggles and could lead to further stock declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.06%

Historical Avg

±9.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.1% while KMX has averaged ±9.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

42.6%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (70K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CarMax beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 6.6%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 8.19%, as the market reacts negatively to disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on inventory levels and how they are impacting sales.
2Management's outlook on consumer demand for used cars in the coming months.
3Details on operational efficiencies that could improve margins.
4Insights into competitive pressures and how CarMax plans to address them.
5Any commentary on financing options for customers and its impact on sales.