Equity Profile

KMX

CarMax, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$7.8B

Jun17Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2027Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is a leading retailer of used cars in the U.S., providing a no-haggle pricing model and a wide selection of vehicles....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

0.96

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for used vehicles.

7.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KMX Q1-2027 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is a leading retailer of used cars in the U.S., providing a no-haggle pricing model and a wide selection of vehicles. As a part of the consumer discretionary sector, CarMax's performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and the overall health of the automotive market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

-6.71%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter (Q4-2026), CarMax reported an EPS of $0.34, significantly beating estimates, which led to a notable drop in stock price the following day. The company has shown volatility in its earnings performance, with mixed results in previous quarters.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect CarMax to report a solid EPS of $0.96 and revenue of $7.4 billion for Q1-2027, reflecting cautious optimism in the used car market.

Bull Case

If CarMax can exceed EPS expectations, it may indicate strong demand and effective cost management, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if CarMax misses EPS estimates, it could signal ongoing challenges in the used car market, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.96

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

7.4B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for used vehicles.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will CarMax's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.96?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected demand and operational efficiency, which would be crucial for investor confidence.

What is the revenue outlook for the used car market, and how does it compare to the expected $7.4 billion?

Revenue performance will provide insights into market trends and consumer behavior, impacting future growth expectations.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for CarMax to exceed EPS expectations due to recent improvements in operational efficiency and cost management.

Supporting Evidence

CarMax's recent EPS surprises indicate potential for strong performance despite market challenges.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Recent consumer spending trends may favor used vehicles, benefiting CarMax.

Key Risk

If CarMax's EPS comes in above $1.10, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate revolves around whether CarMax can sustain profitability in a fluctuating used car market amid changing consumer preferences.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.10 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.83 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the used car market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.06%

Historical Avg

±9.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 14%, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.1% while KMX has averaged ±9.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

42.6%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (70K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CarMax beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by approximately 6% the next day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 8% based on historical patterns, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on inventory levels and how they are impacting sales.
2Insights into consumer demand trends for used vehicles.
3Management's outlook on the competitive landscape in the automotive retail sector.
4Comments on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
5Any guidance on future quarters and how they align with current market conditions.

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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is a leading retailer of used cars in the U.S., providing a no-haggle pricing model and a wide selection of vehicles....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

0.96

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for used vehicles.

7.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KMX Q1-2027 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

-6.71%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect CarMax to report a solid EPS of $0.96 and revenue of $7.4 billion for Q1-2027, reflecting cautious optimism in the used car market.

Bull Case

If CarMax can exceed EPS expectations, it may indicate strong demand and effective cost management, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if CarMax misses EPS estimates, it could signal ongoing challenges in the used car market, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.96

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

7.4B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for used vehicles.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will CarMax's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.96?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected demand and operational efficiency, which would be crucial for investor confidence.

What is the revenue outlook for the used car market, and how does it compare to the expected $7.4 billion?

Revenue performance will provide insights into market trends and consumer behavior, impacting future growth expectations.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for CarMax to exceed EPS expectations due to recent improvements in operational efficiency and cost management.

Supporting Evidence

CarMax's recent EPS surprises indicate potential for strong performance despite market challenges.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Recent consumer spending trends may favor used vehicles, benefiting CarMax.

Key Risk

If CarMax's EPS comes in above $1.10, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate revolves around whether CarMax can sustain profitability in a fluctuating used car market amid changing consumer preferences.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.10 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.83 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the used car market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.06%

Historical Avg

±9.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 14%, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.1% while KMX has averaged ±9.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

42.6%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (70K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CarMax beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by approximately 6% the next day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 8% based on historical patterns, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on inventory levels and how they are impacting sales.
2Insights into consumer demand trends for used vehicles.
3Management's outlook on the competitive landscape in the automotive retail sector.
4Comments on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
5Any guidance on future quarters and how they align with current market conditions.