Equity Profile

KMX

CarMax, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$6.7B

Jun17Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2027Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is a leading retailer of used cars in the U.S., providing a no-haggle pricing model that appeals to consumers....

Key Metrics to Watch

Used Vehicle Sales Growth

This metric indicates how well CarMax is selling its inventory, which is crucial for revenue generation.

N/A

Gross Profit per Unit

This measures the profitability of each vehicle sold, reflecting operational efficiency and pricing strategy.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KMX Q1-2027 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is a leading retailer of used cars in the U.S., providing a no-haggle pricing model that appeals to consumers. As a part of the consumer discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and the overall health of the automotive market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

-6.71%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2026, CarMax reported an EPS of $0.34, exceeding expectations by 57.41%. However, the stock dropped 15.12% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving inventory turnover.
Enhance customer experience through technology.
Commit to maintaining competitive pricing.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are uncertain about CarMax's upcoming earnings, given mixed signals from previous quarters and the current economic environment.

Bull Case

If CarMax shows strong used vehicle sales growth and improved profit margins, it could signal a recovery in consumer demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing sales figures or declining profit margins, it could raise concerns about its competitive position in a challenging market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the growth rate of used vehicle sales compared to last year?

This figure will indicate whether CarMax is successfully attracting customers in a competitive market and can drive future revenue.

What is the gross profit per unit sold this quarter?

Understanding profitability on each vehicle sold will help assess the company's pricing strategy and operational efficiency.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating CarMax's ability to leverage its operational efficiencies and customer loyalty to drive sales growth despite economic headwinds.

Supporting Evidence

Previous quarters have shown significant EPS surprises, indicating potential for continued operational strength.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, hinting at investor expectations for a substantial shift in sentiment.

CarMax's commitment to enhancing customer experience could translate into improved sales performance.

Key Risk

If used vehicle sales growth exceeds 10% YoY, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether CarMax can maintain its sales momentum and profitability in a fluctuating economic environment.

Bull Confirmed If

Used vehicle sales growth of +10% YoY or better, with gross profit per unit exceeding $2,000.

Bear Confirmed If

Sales growth below 0% YoY or gross profit per unit dropping below $1,500.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.06%

Historical Avg

±9.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.1% while KMX has averaged ±9.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

42.6%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (70K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CarMax beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 6.59%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing market concerns.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 20.07%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on inventory turnover rates and how they compare to historical averages.
2Details on customer satisfaction initiatives and their early impacts on sales.
3Any commentary on competitive pressures in the used car market.
4Insights into pricing strategies and how they are adapting to market conditions.
5Management's outlook on consumer spending trends for the remainder of the year.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Jabil Inc.

Company Snapshot

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is a leading retailer of used cars in the U.S., providing a no-haggle pricing model that appeals to consumers....

Key Metrics to Watch

Used Vehicle Sales Growth

This metric indicates how well CarMax is selling its inventory, which is crucial for revenue generation.

N/A

Gross Profit per Unit

This measures the profitability of each vehicle sold, reflecting operational efficiency and pricing strategy.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KMX Q1-2027 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

-6.71%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2026, CarMax reported an EPS of $0.34, exceeding expectations by 57.41%. However, the stock dropped 15.12% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving inventory turnover.
Enhance customer experience through technology.
Commit to maintaining competitive pricing.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are uncertain about CarMax's upcoming earnings, given mixed signals from previous quarters and the current economic environment.

Bull Case

If CarMax shows strong used vehicle sales growth and improved profit margins, it could signal a recovery in consumer demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing sales figures or declining profit margins, it could raise concerns about its competitive position in a challenging market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the growth rate of used vehicle sales compared to last year?

This figure will indicate whether CarMax is successfully attracting customers in a competitive market and can drive future revenue.

What is the gross profit per unit sold this quarter?

Understanding profitability on each vehicle sold will help assess the company's pricing strategy and operational efficiency.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating CarMax's ability to leverage its operational efficiencies and customer loyalty to drive sales growth despite economic headwinds.

Supporting Evidence

Previous quarters have shown significant EPS surprises, indicating potential for continued operational strength.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, hinting at investor expectations for a substantial shift in sentiment.

CarMax's commitment to enhancing customer experience could translate into improved sales performance.

Key Risk

If used vehicle sales growth exceeds 10% YoY, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether CarMax can maintain its sales momentum and profitability in a fluctuating economic environment.

Bull Confirmed If

Used vehicle sales growth of +10% YoY or better, with gross profit per unit exceeding $2,000.

Bear Confirmed If

Sales growth below 0% YoY or gross profit per unit dropping below $1,500.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.06%

Historical Avg

±9.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.1% while KMX has averaged ±9.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

42.6%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.33Puts (70K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If CarMax beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 6.59%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing market concerns.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 20.07%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on inventory turnover rates and how they compare to historical averages.
2Details on customer satisfaction initiatives and their early impacts on sales.
3Any commentary on competitive pressures in the used car market.
4Insights into pricing strategies and how they are adapting to market conditions.
5Management's outlook on consumer spending trends for the remainder of the year.