Equity Profile

KNF

Knife River Corporation

MaterialsConstruction Materials$4.1B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Knife River Corporation operates in the materials sector, focusing on construction materials. With a market cap of $4 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the construction industry, providing essential materials for infrastructure projects.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and capture market share in the construction materials sector.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

-2.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.08%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Knife River reported an EPS of -$1.40, slightly beating expectations of -$1.42. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.52% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of Knife River's Q2 2026 earnings report, especially after a mixed performance in previous quarters. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If Knife River can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved margins, it could signal a turnaround in the company's financial performance, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to show improvement in EPS or revenue, it may reinforce concerns about its profitability, leading to further declines in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for Q2 2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How does Knife River plan to address revenue growth challenges?

Insights into strategies for revenue growth will be crucial for assessing the company's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Knife River's potential for a turnaround, especially given its recent EPS beat in Q4 2025.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising on the upside, with a 63% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility, which could reflect underlying optimism.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $0.50, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market perceptions.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Knife River can turn around its recent performance and achieve sustainable growth.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or better would confirm the bull case, indicating a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below -$1.00 would reinforce bearish sentiment and raise concerns about the company's financial stability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.76%

Historical Avg

±6.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.8% while KNF has averaged ±6.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

49.1%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +0.5% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knife River beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 5.69%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see muted movement.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 3.92%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
2Details on new contracts or projects that could drive revenue growth.
3Management's outlook on market conditions and demand for construction materials.
4Insights into operational efficiencies and how they may affect future performance.
5Responses to analysts' questions regarding competitive pressures in the construction materials market.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Aug3

ONBMO

ON Semiconductor Corporation

PreviewView

Aug3

LBMO

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and capture market share in the construction materials sector.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

KNF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

-2.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.08%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Knife River reported an EPS of -$1.40, slightly beating expectations of -$1.42. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.52% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Knife River can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved margins, it could signal a turnaround in the company's financial performance, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to show improvement in EPS or revenue, it may reinforce concerns about its profitability, leading to further declines in the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for Q2 2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How does Knife River plan to address revenue growth challenges?

Insights into strategies for revenue growth will be crucial for assessing the company's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Knife River's potential for a turnaround, especially given its recent EPS beat in Q4 2025.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising on the upside, with a 63% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility, which could reflect underlying optimism.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $0.50, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market perceptions.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Knife River can turn around its recent performance and achieve sustainable growth.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or better would confirm the bull case, indicating a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below -$1.00 would reinforce bearish sentiment and raise concerns about the company's financial stability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.76%

Historical Avg

±6.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.8% while KNF has averaged ±6.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

49.1%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Knife River beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 5.69%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see muted movement.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 3.92%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
2Details on new contracts or projects that could drive revenue growth.
3Management's outlook on market conditions and demand for construction materials.
4Insights into operational efficiencies and how they may affect future performance.
5Responses to analysts' questions regarding competitive pressures in the construction materials market.