Equity Profile

KOF

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.

Consumer StaplesSoft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages$22.4B

Apr29Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market9:04 AM EDT

Coca-Cola FEMSA Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.00%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.19	$1.26	-3.43%
Revenue	N/A	$4.1B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Coca-Cola FEMSA Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.00%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.19	$1.26	-3.43%
Revenue	N/A	$4.1B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Cautiously Optimistic

Overall, management conveyed a cautious outlook, emphasizing resilience in the face of market challenges. They remain focused on strategic initiatives to drive future growth.

Management acknowledged the challenging market conditions but expressed confidence in long-term growth.

They highlighted ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency.

What It Means

Coca-Cola FEMSA's earnings report shows a slight miss on EPS, which may raise concerns among investors about profitability. However, the stock reaction remained flat, indicating that investors may have anticipated the results. The absence of revenue figures and guidance leaves some uncertainty about future performance, but management's focus on operational efficiency suggests a commitment to navigating current challenges.

Company Snapshot

Coca-Cola Femsa S A Series L ADR (KOF) is a major player in the consumer staples sector, specifically in the soft drinks and non-alcoholic beverages industry. The company is significant as it operates one of the largest bottling systems for Coca-Cola products in the world, which is influenced by consumer spending trends and preferences for beverages.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$1.26

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$4.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-12.29%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.12%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Coca-Cola Femsa reported an EPS of just $0.02, falling significantly short of expectations, leading to a notable market reaction. This disappointing performance raised concerns about the company's ability to meet future earnings targets.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic for Q1 2026, with expectations set for an EPS of $1.26 and revenue of $4.1 billion. The market is eager to see if the company can recover from its previous quarter's significant miss.

Bull Case

If Coca-Cola Femsa can exceed the EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal a strong recovery and renewed investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise further doubts about its operational efficiency and market position, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.26

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$4.1B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.26?

A beat on EPS would indicate a strong recovery from the previous quarter's poor performance and could boost investor confidence.

What factors contributed to revenue expectations of $4.1 billion?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue projections will help assess the company's market position and growth potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for a strong recovery in Coca-Cola Femsa's earnings, given the company's historical resilience and market position.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a track record of bouncing back from earnings misses, as seen in previous quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that the market is not fully confident in the consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If the EPS exceeds $1.30, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a significant earnings miss, and the market will be closely watching for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.20 would support the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.2%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of 4.2% around the earnings announcement, indicating some uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±6.7% while KOF has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

26.1%

Calls (100)P/C Ratio: 1.00Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss setup in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 30 (30%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 21 of 30 (70%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +1.0% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Coca-Cola Femsa beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +1.15%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around +1.15%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on sales growth in key markets.
2Updates on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into consumer trends affecting beverage choices.
4Discussion on any new product launches or marketing initiatives.
5Management's outlook on the overall beverage market for the coming quarters.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$1.26

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$4.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-12.29%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.12%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Coca-Cola Femsa can exceed the EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal a strong recovery and renewed investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise further doubts about its operational efficiency and market position, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.26

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$4.1B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.26?

A beat on EPS would indicate a strong recovery from the previous quarter's poor performance and could boost investor confidence.

What factors contributed to revenue expectations of $4.1 billion?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue projections will help assess the company's market position and growth potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the potential for a strong recovery in Coca-Cola Femsa's earnings, given the company's historical resilience and market position.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a track record of bouncing back from earnings misses, as seen in previous quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that the market is not fully confident in the consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If the EPS exceeds $1.30, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a significant earnings miss, and the market will be closely watching for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.20 would support the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.2%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of 4.2% around the earnings announcement, indicating some uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±6.7% while KOF has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

26.1%

Calls (100)P/C Ratio: 1.00Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss setup in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 30 (30%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Coca-Cola Femsa beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +1.15%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around +1.15%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on sales growth in key markets.
2Updates on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into consumer trends affecting beverage choices.
4Discussion on any new product launches or marketing initiatives.
5Management's outlook on the overall beverage market for the coming quarters.