Equity Profile

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

Health CarePharmaceuticals$1.1T

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is a leading pharmaceutical company that develops and manufactures a wide range of medications, particularly in the areas of diabetes, oncology, and immunology. With a market cap of over $1 trillion, its innovations play a crucial role in healthcare, impacting millions of patients worldwide.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Expected to be around $8.55.

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market share and introduce successful products.

Not available.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

LLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+10.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.58%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Eli Lilly reported an EPS of $8.55, surpassing estimates by 21.07%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 9.80% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on innovation in diabetes and cancer treatments.
Commitment to expanding market presence in emerging markets.
Plans to enhance supply chain efficiency.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are high for Eli Lilly as it has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters. Investors are looking for continued strong performance.

Bull Case

If Eli Lilly can maintain or exceed its previous EPS growth rates, it may see significant stock price appreciation as confidence in its product pipeline grows.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet EPS expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Expected to be around $8.55.

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue Growth

Not available.

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market share and introduce successful products.

Market Reaction

Historically, the stock has moved an average of ±8.6% after earnings.

Understanding how the stock reacts post-earnings can provide insights into investor sentiment and future expectations.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a strong performance could boost investor confidence.

What guidance will management provide for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?

Future revenue guidance will indicate the company's growth trajectory and impact stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Eli Lilly's potential for revenue growth due to its strong pipeline and market expansion strategies.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, reflecting high expectations from traders.

Recent insider activity shows no major selling, which could indicate confidence in the company's future.

Key Risk

If revenue growth comes in below expectations, it could undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Eli Lilly can sustain its recent growth rates amid increasing competition and market pressures.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $8.75 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $8.00 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues in the company's growth strategy.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.56%

Historical Avg

±8.6%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.6% while LLY has averaged ±8.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

41.6%

Calls (3.2M)P/C Ratio: 0.97Puts (1.4M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Eli Lilly beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around +3.77% on the following day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

If the company misses EPS expectations, history suggests a potential drop of around -8.97% in the stock price.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·5 sells

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$22,008.00–$155,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OHDavid J. TaylorRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on competitive pressures in the pharmaceutical market.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their effect on margins.
4Details on international market expansion efforts and expected timelines.
5Any changes in guidance for future quarters based on current performance.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Expected to be around $8.55.

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market share and introduce successful products.

Not available.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

LLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+10.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.58%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Eli Lilly reported an EPS of $8.55, surpassing estimates by 21.07%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 9.80% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on innovation in diabetes and cancer treatments.
Commitment to expanding market presence in emerging markets.
Plans to enhance supply chain efficiency.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are high for Eli Lilly as it has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters. Investors are looking for continued strong performance.

Bull Case

If Eli Lilly can maintain or exceed its previous EPS growth rates, it may see significant stock price appreciation as confidence in its product pipeline grows.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet EPS expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Expected to be around $8.55.

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue Growth

Not available.

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market share and introduce successful products.

Market Reaction

Historically, the stock has moved an average of ±8.6% after earnings.

Understanding how the stock reacts post-earnings can provide insights into investor sentiment and future expectations.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a strong performance could boost investor confidence.

What guidance will management provide for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?

Future revenue guidance will indicate the company's growth trajectory and impact stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Eli Lilly's potential for revenue growth due to its strong pipeline and market expansion strategies.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, reflecting high expectations from traders.

Recent insider activity shows no major selling, which could indicate confidence in the company's future.

Key Risk

If revenue growth comes in below expectations, it could undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Eli Lilly can sustain its recent growth rates amid increasing competition and market pressures.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $8.75 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $8.00 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues in the company's growth strategy.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.56%

Historical Avg

±8.6%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.6% while LLY has averaged ±8.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

41.6%

Calls (3.2M)P/C Ratio: 0.97Puts (1.4M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Eli Lilly beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around +3.77% on the following day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

If the company misses EPS expectations, history suggests a potential drop of around -8.97% in the stock price.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·5 sells

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$22,008.00–$155,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OHDavid J. TaylorRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on competitive pressures in the pharmaceutical market.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their effect on margins.
4Details on international market expansion efforts and expected timelines.
5Any changes in guidance for future quarters based on current performance.