Equity Profile

LMND

Lemonade, Inc.

FinancialsProperty & Casualty Insurance$5.4B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) is a technology-driven property and casualty insurance company that aims to simplify the insurance process through its digital platform....

Key Metrics to Watch

Customer Growth

Tracking the number of new customers is crucial as it indicates market acceptance and demand for Lemonade's insurance products.

Expected to show strong growth compared to previous quarters.

Loss Ratio

This metric measures the percentage of claims paid out versus premiums earned, reflecting the company's profitability and risk management.

Expected to remain stable or improve.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

LMND Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) is a technology-driven property and casualty insurance company that aims to simplify the insurance process through its digital platform. Operating in the financial sector, Lemonade leverages artificial intelligence and behavioral economics to offer affordable insurance products and improve customer experience.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+18.72%

Avg Stock Reaction

+4.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Lemonade reported an EPS of -$0.47, outperforming estimates by nearly 19%. However, the stock fell 14.85% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding customer base through enhanced marketing strategies.
Commitment to improving technology for better user experience.
Plans to introduce new insurance products in the upcoming quarters.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Lemonade's upcoming earnings report, given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns about profitability and market competition remain prevalent.

Bull Case

If Lemonade continues to show strong customer growth and improves its loss ratio, it could signal a sustainable path to profitability, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to demonstrate significant revenue growth or if the loss ratio worsens, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Customer Growth

Expected to show strong growth compared to previous quarters.

Tracking the number of new customers is crucial as it indicates market acceptance and demand for Lemonade's insurance products.

Loss Ratio

Expected to remain stable or improve.

This metric measures the percentage of claims paid out versus premiums earned, reflecting the company's profitability and risk management.

Revenue Growth

Expected to show positive growth year-over-year.

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to scale its business and attract more customers.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the projected customer growth rate for Q2-2026?

Customer growth is a key indicator of market acceptance and can significantly impact future revenue.

How has the loss ratio changed compared to previous quarters?

A stable or improving loss ratio is crucial for demonstrating effective risk management and profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may underestimate Lemonade's ability to leverage technology for customer acquisition, leading to stronger growth than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating potential for continued performance.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, reflecting investor uncertainty that may not align with the company's growth potential.

Key Risk

If customer growth comes in below expectations, it could significantly undermine the bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on whether Lemonade can maintain its growth trajectory while managing costs effectively.

Bull Confirmed If

Customer growth exceeding 20% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A loss ratio above 75% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±34.22%

Historical Avg

±12.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±34.2% while LMND has averaged ±12.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.2%

Calls (226K)P/C Ratio: 0.13Puts (88K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Lemonade beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.79%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down.

Miss

If the company misses estimates, history suggests a potential decline of around 14.85%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on customer acquisition strategies and their effectiveness.
2Details on the performance of new insurance products launched.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and how Lemonade plans to differentiate itself.
4Management's outlook on future profitability and loss ratio management.
5Any commentary on technology enhancements and their impact on customer experience.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) is a technology-driven property and casualty insurance company that aims to simplify the insurance process through its digital platform....

Key Metrics to Watch

Customer Growth

Tracking the number of new customers is crucial as it indicates market acceptance and demand for Lemonade's insurance products.

Expected to show strong growth compared to previous quarters.

Loss Ratio

This metric measures the percentage of claims paid out versus premiums earned, reflecting the company's profitability and risk management.

Expected to remain stable or improve.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

LMND Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+18.72%

Avg Stock Reaction

+4.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Lemonade reported an EPS of -$0.47, outperforming estimates by nearly 19%. However, the stock fell 14.85% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding customer base through enhanced marketing strategies.
Commitment to improving technology for better user experience.
Plans to introduce new insurance products in the upcoming quarters.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Lemonade continues to show strong customer growth and improves its loss ratio, it could signal a sustainable path to profitability, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to demonstrate significant revenue growth or if the loss ratio worsens, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Customer Growth

Expected to show strong growth compared to previous quarters.

Tracking the number of new customers is crucial as it indicates market acceptance and demand for Lemonade's insurance products.

Loss Ratio

Expected to remain stable or improve.

This metric measures the percentage of claims paid out versus premiums earned, reflecting the company's profitability and risk management.

Revenue Growth

Expected to show positive growth year-over-year.

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to scale its business and attract more customers.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the projected customer growth rate for Q2-2026?

Customer growth is a key indicator of market acceptance and can significantly impact future revenue.

How has the loss ratio changed compared to previous quarters?

A stable or improving loss ratio is crucial for demonstrating effective risk management and profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may underestimate Lemonade's ability to leverage technology for customer acquisition, leading to stronger growth than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating potential for continued performance.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, reflecting investor uncertainty that may not align with the company's growth potential.

Key Risk

If customer growth comes in below expectations, it could significantly undermine the bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on whether Lemonade can maintain its growth trajectory while managing costs effectively.

Bull Confirmed If

Customer growth exceeding 20% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A loss ratio above 75% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±34.22%

Historical Avg

±12.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±34.2% while LMND has averaged ±12.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

66.2%

Calls (226K)P/C Ratio: 0.13Puts (88K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Lemonade beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.79%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down.

Miss

If the company misses estimates, history suggests a potential decline of around 14.85%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on customer acquisition strategies and their effectiveness.
2Details on the performance of new insurance products launched.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and how Lemonade plans to differentiate itself.
4Management's outlook on future profitability and loss ratio management.
5Any commentary on technology enhancements and their impact on customer experience.