Equity Profile

LTM

LATAM Airlines Group S.A.

IndustrialsPassenger Airlines$15.3B

Aug11Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is a major airline in South America, providing passenger and cargo services across the continent and internationally....

Key Metrics to Watch

Passenger Revenue

This metric is crucial as it reflects the demand for air travel, which has been recovering post-pandemic.

N/A

Load Factor

A high load factor indicates efficient use of capacity and strong demand, impacting profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

LTM Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is a major airline in South America, providing passenger and cargo services across the continent and internationally. As a key player in the industrial sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer travel demand and economic conditions in the region.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

-13.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.20%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, LATAM Airlines reported a significant earnings miss, with EPS at $0.00 compared to an expectation of $1.26. This was a drastic decline, reflecting ongoing challenges in the airline industry.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to improving operational efficiency.
They emphasized a focus on increasing passenger capacity.
Plans to enhance customer service and loyalty programs were highlighted.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for LATAM Airlines are cautious, given the recent earnings miss and ongoing economic pressures. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in passenger demand and cost management.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on a strong rebound in travel demand, leading to improved passenger revenue and better-than-expected load factors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the airline fails to show signs of recovery or if operating costs continue to rise, it could lead to further earnings disappointments.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current load factor for the quarter?

The load factor will indicate how well LATAM is filling its flights and managing capacity, which is critical for revenue generation.

How are operating expenses trending compared to previous quarters?

Understanding the trajectory of operating costs will help assess the company's ability to maintain profitability amid rising fuel prices.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a strong recovery in travel demand, particularly in South America, as vaccination rates rise and restrictions ease.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 5% move, but the stock has historically moved more than 6% in similar setups.

Recent trends in consumer spending indicate a rebound in travel-related expenditures.

LATAM's operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected load factors.

Key Risk

If the load factor exceeds 85%, it could shift the narrative towards a stronger recovery than anticipated.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis this quarter revolves around balancing recovery in passenger demand against rising operational costs.

Bull Confirmed If

A load factor above 85% would confirm strong demand recovery and support the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Operating expenses rising more than 10% year-over-year would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5%

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5% following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty among investors.

Detail

30d HV

51.7%

Calls (29K)P/C Ratio: 1.02Puts (14K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss setup in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If LATAM beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 1.64%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer signals of recovery.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.64%, reinforcing concerns about the airline's operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on passenger demand trends and load factors.
2Details on cost management strategies and operating expenses.
3Any commentary on international travel recovery.
4Insights into customer loyalty program performance.
5Management's outlook on future capacity expansion.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Aug8

ONReported

ON Semiconductor Corporation

RecapView

Aug9

PARRReported

Company Snapshot

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is a major airline in South America, providing passenger and cargo services across the continent and internationally....

Key Metrics to Watch

Passenger Revenue

This metric is crucial as it reflects the demand for air travel, which has been recovering post-pandemic.

N/A

Load Factor

A high load factor indicates efficient use of capacity and strong demand, impacting profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

LTM Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

-13.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.20%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to improving operational efficiency.
They emphasized a focus on increasing passenger capacity.
Plans to enhance customer service and loyalty programs were highlighted.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on a strong rebound in travel demand, leading to improved passenger revenue and better-than-expected load factors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the airline fails to show signs of recovery or if operating costs continue to rise, it could lead to further earnings disappointments.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current load factor for the quarter?

The load factor will indicate how well LATAM is filling its flights and managing capacity, which is critical for revenue generation.

How are operating expenses trending compared to previous quarters?

Understanding the trajectory of operating costs will help assess the company's ability to maintain profitability amid rising fuel prices.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a strong recovery in travel demand, particularly in South America, as vaccination rates rise and restrictions ease.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 5% move, but the stock has historically moved more than 6% in similar setups.

Recent trends in consumer spending indicate a rebound in travel-related expenditures.

LATAM's operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected load factors.

Key Risk

If the load factor exceeds 85%, it could shift the narrative towards a stronger recovery than anticipated.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis this quarter revolves around balancing recovery in passenger demand against rising operational costs.

Bull Confirmed If

A load factor above 85% would confirm strong demand recovery and support the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Operating expenses rising more than 10% year-over-year would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5%

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5% following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty among investors.

Detail

30d HV

51.7%

Calls (29K)P/C Ratio: 1.02Puts (14K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss setup in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If LATAM beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 1.64%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer signals of recovery.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.64%, reinforcing concerns about the airline's operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on passenger demand trends and load factors.
2Details on cost management strategies and operating expenses.
3Any commentary on international travel recovery.
4Insights into customer loyalty program performance.
5Management's outlook on future capacity expansion.