Equity Profile

LYB

LyondellBasell Industries N.V.

MaterialsCommodity Chemicals$20.8B

May1Fri

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:30 AM EDT

LyondellBasell Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.52%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.49	$0.28	+60.66%
Revenue	N/A	$7.5B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

LyondellBasell Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.52%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.49	$0.28	+60.66%
Revenue	N/A	$7.5B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

LyondellBasell's earnings report shows a significant beat on EPS, which likely contributed to the stock's modest increase of 0.52%. The strong EPS performance indicates better-than-expected profitability, although revenue figures were not disclosed. Investors may view this positive surprise as a sign of resilience in the company's operations.

Company Snapshot

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) is a leading global producer of chemicals and plastics, playing a crucial role in various industries including automotive, construction, and consumer goods....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.28

Revenue

Revenue is critical for assessing overall business health and growth, reflecting demand for LyondellBasell's products.

$7.5B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) is a leading global producer of chemicals and plastics, playing a crucial role in various industries including automotive, construction, and consumer goods. As a major player in the materials sector, its performance is closely tied to global economic trends and commodity prices.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-28.52%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, LyondellBasell reported an EPS of -$0.26, significantly missing estimates, which led to a decline in stock price. The company has faced challenges in maintaining profitability amid fluctuating demand and pricing pressures.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic for Q1 2026, expecting a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. However, the wide range of estimates indicates uncertainty about market conditions and demand.

Bull Case

If LyondellBasell can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a rebound in demand and operational efficiency, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the commodity chemicals market, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.28

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$7.5B

Revenue is critical for assessing overall business health and growth, reflecting demand for LyondellBasell's products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will LyondellBasell achieve an EPS of $0.28 or better?

This figure is crucial for assessing the company's recovery from previous misses and its ability to manage costs effectively.

How does management view demand trends and pricing pressures for the upcoming quarters?

Understanding management's outlook on demand will provide insights into potential revenue growth and operational challenges.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a rebound in demand, particularly if LyondellBasell can leverage cost efficiencies.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Recent earnings history shows volatility, suggesting that investor sentiment may shift rapidly based on new information.

Key Risk

If the company reports strong demand signals, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it follows a significant earnings miss, and market expectations are cautiously optimistic.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.28 or higher with revenue exceeding $7.5B would confirm a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.28 or revenue significantly under $7.5B would indicate ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.39%

Historical Avg

±2.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.4% while LYB has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

56.6%

Calls (90K)P/C Ratio: 0.22Puts (181K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If LyondellBasell beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.20% on the following day, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about -2.43% based on historical patterns, raising concerns about the company's future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
2Insights into demand trends for key products in the automotive and construction sectors.
3Management's commentary on pricing pressures and their strategies to address them.
4Any guidance on expected revenue growth for the next quarter.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) is a leading global producer of chemicals and plastics, playing a crucial role in various industries including automotive, construction, and consumer goods....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.28

Revenue

Revenue is critical for assessing overall business health and growth, reflecting demand for LyondellBasell's products.

$7.5B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-28.52%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic for Q1 2026, expecting a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. However, the wide range of estimates indicates uncertainty about market conditions and demand.

Bull Case

If LyondellBasell can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a rebound in demand and operational efficiency, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the commodity chemicals market, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.28

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$7.5B

Revenue is critical for assessing overall business health and growth, reflecting demand for LyondellBasell's products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will LyondellBasell achieve an EPS of $0.28 or better?

This figure is crucial for assessing the company's recovery from previous misses and its ability to manage costs effectively.

How does management view demand trends and pricing pressures for the upcoming quarters?

Understanding management's outlook on demand will provide insights into potential revenue growth and operational challenges.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a rebound in demand, particularly if LyondellBasell can leverage cost efficiencies.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Recent earnings history shows volatility, suggesting that investor sentiment may shift rapidly based on new information.

Key Risk

If the company reports strong demand signals, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it follows a significant earnings miss, and market expectations are cautiously optimistic.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.28 or higher with revenue exceeding $7.5B would confirm a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.28 or revenue significantly under $7.5B would indicate ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.39%

Historical Avg

±2.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.4% while LYB has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

56.6%

Calls (90K)P/C Ratio: 0.22Puts (181K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If LyondellBasell beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.20% on the following day, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about -2.43% based on historical patterns, raising concerns about the company's future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
2Insights into demand trends for key products in the automotive and construction sectors.
3Management's commentary on pricing pressures and their strategies to address them.
4Any guidance on expected revenue growth for the next quarter.