Equity Profile

MARA

MARA Holdings, Inc.

Information TechnologyApplication Software$4.6B

May11Mon

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:16 PM EDT

MARA Holdings Misses on EPS, Stock Up 3.48%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-3.31	$-0.51	-619.57%
Revenue	—	$181M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

MARA Holdings Misses on EPS, Stock Up 3.48%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-3.31	$-0.51	-619.57%
Revenue	—	$181M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

MARA Holdings reported a significant miss on EPS, which may raise concerns about its financial health. Despite this, the stock reacted positively, increasing by 3.48%. This could indicate that investors are looking beyond the earnings miss, possibly focusing on other factors or future potential.

Company Snapshot

MARA Holdings, Inc. is a technology company focused on application software....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter, analysts expect a loss of $-0.51, which will be closely scrutinized.

$-0.51

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth, with a consensus estimate of $181 million.

$181M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

MARA Holdings, Inc. is a technology company focused on application software. With a market cap of $5 billion, it plays a significant role in the software sector, which is increasingly important as businesses continue to adopt digital solutions and automation.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-219.27%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.90%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, MARA reported an EPS of $-4.52, significantly missing expectations. This disappointing performance led to a 1.40% decline in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautious ahead of MARA's earnings report, with expectations of continued losses. The market is particularly focused on revenue growth and any signs of recovery.

Bull Case

If MARA can exceed revenue expectations and narrow its losses, it could signal a turnaround, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

A larger-than-expected loss or disappointing revenue could reinforce concerns about the company's financial health and lead to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$-0.51

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter, analysts expect a loss of $-0.51, which will be closely scrutinized.

Revenue

$181M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth, with a consensus estimate of $181 million.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will MARA's revenue meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $181 million?

Revenue growth is crucial for demonstrating the company's ability to recover from recent losses and attract investor confidence.

How will management address the significant EPS loss of $-4.52 from the last quarter?

Understanding management's strategy to mitigate losses will be key for investors looking for signs of improvement.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate MARA's potential for revenue recovery, as previous quarters showed unexpected revenue spikes despite losses.

Supporting Evidence

MARA has a history of surprising analysts with revenue figures, which could happen again this quarter.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant surprise.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in above $181 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a history of significant EPS misses, and investors are looking for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth exceeding $181 million with a narrower EPS loss than expected could confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $-0.51 and revenue below $163 million would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.45%

Historical Avg

±3.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty about the results.

Options are pricing ±11.2% while MARA has averaged ±3.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.3%

30d HV

67.1%

Calls (18.8M)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (4.1M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If MARA beats expectations, history suggests a potential average 1-day move of +2.95%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average 1-day move of -0.27%, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new software products or services that could drive revenue growth.
2Management's commentary on cost-cutting measures and their impact on future profitability.
3Insights into customer acquisition and retention strategies in the current market.
4Any discussion on partnerships or collaborations that could enhance market position.
5Clarification on the company's long-term growth strategy amidst recent losses.

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Company Snapshot

MARA Holdings, Inc. is a technology company focused on application software....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter, analysts expect a loss of $-0.51, which will be closely scrutinized.

$-0.51

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth, with a consensus estimate of $181 million.

$181M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-219.27%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.90%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, MARA reported an EPS of $-4.52, significantly missing expectations. This disappointing performance led to a 1.40% decline in stock price the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautious ahead of MARA's earnings report, with expectations of continued losses. The market is particularly focused on revenue growth and any signs of recovery.

Bull Case

If MARA can exceed revenue expectations and narrow its losses, it could signal a turnaround, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

A larger-than-expected loss or disappointing revenue could reinforce concerns about the company's financial health and lead to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$-0.51

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter, analysts expect a loss of $-0.51, which will be closely scrutinized.

Revenue

$181M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth, with a consensus estimate of $181 million.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will MARA's revenue meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $181 million?

Revenue growth is crucial for demonstrating the company's ability to recover from recent losses and attract investor confidence.

How will management address the significant EPS loss of $-4.52 from the last quarter?

Understanding management's strategy to mitigate losses will be key for investors looking for signs of improvement.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate MARA's potential for revenue recovery, as previous quarters showed unexpected revenue spikes despite losses.

Supporting Evidence

MARA has a history of surprising analysts with revenue figures, which could happen again this quarter.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant surprise.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in above $181 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a history of significant EPS misses, and investors are looking for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth exceeding $181 million with a narrower EPS loss than expected could confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $-0.51 and revenue below $163 million would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.45%

Historical Avg

±3.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty about the results.

Options are pricing ±11.2% while MARA has averaged ±3.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.3%

30d HV

67.1%

Calls (18.8M)P/C Ratio: 0.39Puts (4.1M)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If MARA beats expectations, history suggests a potential average 1-day move of +2.95%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average 1-day move of -0.27%, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new software products or services that could drive revenue growth.
2Management's commentary on cost-cutting measures and their impact on future profitability.
3Insights into customer acquisition and retention strategies in the current market.
4Any discussion on partnerships or collaborations that could enhance market position.
5Clarification on the company's long-term growth strategy amidst recent losses.