Equity Profile

MAT

Mattel, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryLeisure Products$4.1B

Apr29Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:05 PM EDT

Mattel, Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.68%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.20	$-0.21	+16.67%
Revenue	N/A	$809M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Mattel, Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.68%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.20	$-0.21	+16.67%
Revenue	N/A	$809M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Mattel's earnings report showed a better-than-expected performance on EPS, which likely contributed to the stock's modest increase of 0.68%. However, the lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves some uncertainty about the company's overall performance. Investors may be cautiously optimistic but will need more information to assess future growth prospects.

Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading toy manufacturer known for iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

$-0.21

Revenue

Revenue figures will reflect the demand for Mattel's products and overall sales performance in a competitive market.

$809M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading toy manufacturer known for iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels. Operating in the consumer discretionary sector, Mattel's performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and the overall health of the leisure products market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+17.77%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.82%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Mattel reported an EPS of $0.39, which was below expectations, leading to a slight decline in stock price. The company continues to face challenges in meeting analyst forecasts.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts anticipate a challenging quarter for Mattel, with expectations of a loss in EPS and modest revenue. The market is closely watching how the company navigates its product offerings and consumer demand.

Bull Case

If Mattel can outperform expectations on revenue and show signs of strong brand performance, it could lead to a positive reassessment of its growth potential.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or reports a larger loss than anticipated, it could further dampen investor sentiment and lead to a significant stock decline.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.21

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

Revenue

$809M

Revenue figures will reflect the demand for Mattel's products and overall sales performance in a competitive market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Mattel's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $809 million?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing demand for Mattel's products and overall market health.

How will management address the recent trend of missing EPS estimates?

Understanding management's strategy for improving profitability is key to investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a rebound in sales driven by new product launches and marketing initiatives.

Supporting Evidence

Despite recent misses, Mattel has a strong brand portfolio that could drive unexpected revenue growth.

The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that traders expect a surprise in either direction.

Key Risk

If new product lines perform better than expected, it could significantly alter revenue forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is under scrutiny as the company attempts to regain investor confidence after recent earnings misses.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth exceeding $809 million would signal strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than the consensus of $-0.21 would indicate deeper issues in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.2%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.2% while MAT has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

21.9%

Calls (15K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (10K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mattel beats expectations, history suggests a modest positive reaction, confirming a potential turnaround in performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see limited movement as the market digests the information.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.11%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Management's commentary on consumer trends and demand for toys.
3Any insights into cost management strategies to improve profitability.
4Guidance on future quarters and how the company plans to regain market confidence.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive pressures in the toy industry.

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Company Snapshot

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading toy manufacturer known for iconic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

$-0.21

Revenue

Revenue figures will reflect the demand for Mattel's products and overall sales performance in a competitive market.

$809M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+17.77%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.82%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Mattel reported an EPS of $0.39, which was below expectations, leading to a slight decline in stock price. The company continues to face challenges in meeting analyst forecasts.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Mattel can outperform expectations on revenue and show signs of strong brand performance, it could lead to a positive reassessment of its growth potential.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or reports a larger loss than anticipated, it could further dampen investor sentiment and lead to a significant stock decline.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.21

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

Revenue

$809M

Revenue figures will reflect the demand for Mattel's products and overall sales performance in a competitive market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Mattel's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $809 million?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing demand for Mattel's products and overall market health.

How will management address the recent trend of missing EPS estimates?

Understanding management's strategy for improving profitability is key to investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a rebound in sales driven by new product launches and marketing initiatives.

Supporting Evidence

Despite recent misses, Mattel has a strong brand portfolio that could drive unexpected revenue growth.

The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that traders expect a surprise in either direction.

Key Risk

If new product lines perform better than expected, it could significantly alter revenue forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is under scrutiny as the company attempts to regain investor confidence after recent earnings misses.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth exceeding $809 million would signal strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than the consensus of $-0.21 would indicate deeper issues in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.2%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.2% while MAT has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

21.9%

Calls (15K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (10K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mattel beats expectations, history suggests a modest positive reaction, confirming a potential turnaround in performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see limited movement as the market digests the information.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.11%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Management's commentary on consumer trends and demand for toys.
3Any insights into cost management strategies to improve profitability.
4Guidance on future quarters and how the company plans to regain market confidence.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive pressures in the toy industry.