Equity Profile

MC

Moelis & Company

FinancialsInvestment Banking & Brokerage$5.0B

Apr29Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:15 PM EDT

Moelis & Company Misses on EPS, Stock Down 3.79%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.48	$0.53	-18.78%
Revenue	N/A	$323M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Moelis & Company Misses on EPS, Stock Down 3.79%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.48	$0.53	-18.78%
Revenue	N/A	$323M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record for the earnings call, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

Moelis & Company reported earnings that fell short of expectations, particularly in EPS, which may raise concerns among investors. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.79% in response to the earnings miss. Without guidance or additional commentary from management, the outlook remains uncertain for the company going forward.

Company Snapshot

Moelis & Company (MC) is an investment banking firm that provides financial advisory services to clients around the world. With a market cap of $5 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly as companies navigate complex financial transactions and market conditions.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

0.53

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for Moelis's services and its market position.

323M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+48.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Moelis reported an EPS of $1.13, significantly beating estimates by nearly 49%. This strong performance led to a positive market reaction, with the stock rising by 2.18% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Moelis's upcoming earnings, expecting it to maintain its profitability trend. The consensus EPS estimate reflects a solid performance, but revenue growth will be closely scrutinized.

Bull Case

If Moelis exceeds the EPS estimate and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand for its advisory services, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses on EPS or revenue, it could raise concerns about its ability to sustain growth in a challenging market environment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.53

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

Revenue

323M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for Moelis's services and its market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Moelis report an EPS above the consensus estimate of $0.53?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's strong performance trend and could lead to a positive market reaction.

What is the revenue growth compared to the consensus of $323M?

Revenue growth is critical for assessing demand for Moelis's services and its competitive position in the market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Moelis's ability to capitalize on recent market opportunities, particularly in advisory services.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating strong operational performance.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Recent market trends show increased activity in M&A, which could benefit Moelis.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current consensus view.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will indicate whether Moelis can sustain its growth trajectory amid market fluctuations.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.60 or higher with revenue exceeding $340M would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.39 or revenue falling short of $300M would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.1%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.1% while MC has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

30.5%

Calls (39K)P/C Ratio: 81.50Puts (36K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moelis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming the company's strong performance.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors assess management's commentary for future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on major advisory deals or transactions in the pipeline.
2Management's outlook on market conditions and demand for financial advisory services.
3Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
4Insights into competitive positioning and market share trends.
5Any commentary on future growth initiatives or strategic plans.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

0.53

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for Moelis's services and its market position.

323M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+48.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.22%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Moelis exceeds the EPS estimate and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand for its advisory services, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses on EPS or revenue, it could raise concerns about its ability to sustain growth in a challenging market environment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.53

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

Revenue

323M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for Moelis's services and its market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Moelis report an EPS above the consensus estimate of $0.53?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's strong performance trend and could lead to a positive market reaction.

What is the revenue growth compared to the consensus of $323M?

Revenue growth is critical for assessing demand for Moelis's services and its competitive position in the market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Moelis's ability to capitalize on recent market opportunities, particularly in advisory services.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating strong operational performance.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Recent market trends show increased activity in M&A, which could benefit Moelis.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current consensus view.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will indicate whether Moelis can sustain its growth trajectory amid market fluctuations.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.60 or higher with revenue exceeding $340M would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.39 or revenue falling short of $300M would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.1%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.1% while MC has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

30.5%

Calls (39K)P/C Ratio: 81.50Puts (36K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moelis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming the company's strong performance.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors assess management's commentary for future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on major advisory deals or transactions in the pipeline.
2Management's outlook on market conditions and demand for financial advisory services.
3Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
4Insights into competitive positioning and market share trends.
5Any commentary on future growth initiatives or strategic plans.