Equity Profile

MC

Moelis & Company

FinancialsInvestment Banking & Brokerage$4.7B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Moelis & Company (MC) is an investment banking and brokerage firm that provides financial advisory services to clients around the world. With a market cap of $5 billion, the company plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly as businesses navigate complex transactions and market conditions.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help investors gauge its financial health this quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for understanding how well the company is expanding its business and attracting clients.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+48.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Moelis reported an EPS of $0.48, which was below the expected $0.59, resulting in an 18.78% surprise to the downside. The stock fell 3.79% the following day, reflecting investor disappointment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Moelis's upcoming earnings are mixed, with uncertainty surrounding its ability to meet or exceed prior performance given recent misses.

Bull Case

If the company can deliver strong advisory fees and better-than-expected EPS, it could signal a rebound in client activity and market confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to show growth in revenue or advisory fees, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the investment banking sector, leading to further stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant miss last quarter, the EPS figure will be closely scrutinized to assess if the company is on a recovery path.

How have advisory fees changed compared to the previous quarter?

Changes in advisory fees will indicate the level of client engagement and market activity, which are critical for future growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in advisory fees driven by recent market trends, which could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Moelis has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, which may not be fully factored into current expectations.

Key Risk

If advisory fees show significant growth, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it follows a disappointing earnings report, and investors are eager to see if the company can regain momentum.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.60 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.45 would confirm the bear case and suggest ongoing struggles in the investment banking sector.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.47%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±12.5% while MC has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

29.2%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 1.25Puts (700)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moelis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +0.86%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential drop of around -3.79%, indicating continued investor concern.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on client engagement levels and market conditions.
2Specific figures on advisory fees and how they compare to previous quarters.
3Management's outlook on the investment banking landscape for the remainder of the year.
4Details on any significant deals or transactions that may have impacted revenue.
5Insights into cost management and operational efficiency improvements.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help investors gauge its financial health this quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for understanding how well the company is expanding its business and attracting clients.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+48.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.22%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Moelis's upcoming earnings are mixed, with uncertainty surrounding its ability to meet or exceed prior performance given recent misses.

Bull Case

If the company can deliver strong advisory fees and better-than-expected EPS, it could signal a rebound in client activity and market confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to show growth in revenue or advisory fees, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the investment banking sector, leading to further stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant miss last quarter, the EPS figure will be closely scrutinized to assess if the company is on a recovery path.

How have advisory fees changed compared to the previous quarter?

Changes in advisory fees will indicate the level of client engagement and market activity, which are critical for future growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in advisory fees driven by recent market trends, which could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Moelis has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, which may not be fully factored into current expectations.

Key Risk

If advisory fees show significant growth, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it follows a disappointing earnings report, and investors are eager to see if the company can regain momentum.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.60 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.45 would confirm the bear case and suggest ongoing struggles in the investment banking sector.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.47%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±12.5% while MC has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

29.2%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 1.25Puts (700)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moelis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +0.86%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential drop of around -3.79%, indicating continued investor concern.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on client engagement levels and market conditions.
2Specific figures on advisory fees and how they compare to previous quarters.
3Management's outlook on the investment banking landscape for the remainder of the year.
4Details on any significant deals or transactions that may have impacted revenue.
5Insights into cost management and operational efficiency improvements.