Equity Profile

MC

Moelis & Company

FinancialsInvestment Banking & Brokerage$5.0B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Moelis & Company (MC) is an investment banking firm that provides financial advisory services to clients globally. With a market cap of $5 billion, it plays a crucial role in mergers and acquisitions, capital raising, and restructuring, which are vital for businesses navigating complex financial landscapes.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the firm's ability to attract and retain clients, which is essential for its long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+48.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Moelis reported an EPS of $0.48, missing expectations by 18.78%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.79% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Moelis & Company are mixed as the firm has a history of beating EPS estimates but recently missed in the last quarter.

Bull Case

If Moelis can demonstrate strong advisory fees and revenue growth, it may regain investor confidence and see a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss expectations or shows signs of declining demand for its services, the stock could face further pressure.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

EPS is critical for assessing the company's profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment.

How have advisory fees changed in the current quarter?

Advisory fees are a key revenue driver, and changes could signal shifts in market demand for Moelis's services.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the potential for a rebound in advisory fees, which could drive a stronger-than-expected EPS this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Moelis has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% success rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility.

Recent market trends suggest a resurgence in M&A activity, which could benefit Moelis's advisory services.

Key Risk

If advisory fees show unexpected growth, it could challenge the current cautious outlook and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is currently cautious following a recent earnings miss, and the upcoming report will be crucial in determining the company's trajectory.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant beat on EPS, exceeding $0.59, would confirm the bull case and indicate strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.48 would reinforce bearish sentiment and suggest ongoing challenges for the company.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.47%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.5% while MC has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

29.2%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 1.25Puts (700)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moelis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a recovery in performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a significant decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 3.79%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on M&A activity trends and how they may impact advisory fees.
2Management's outlook on the competitive landscape in investment banking.
3Details on client retention and new client acquisition strategies.
4Insights into cost management and operational efficiency improvements.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the firm's ability to attract and retain clients, which is essential for its long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+48.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Moelis reported an EPS of $0.48, missing expectations by 18.78%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.79% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Moelis & Company are mixed as the firm has a history of beating EPS estimates but recently missed in the last quarter.

Bull Case

If Moelis can demonstrate strong advisory fees and revenue growth, it may regain investor confidence and see a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss expectations or shows signs of declining demand for its services, the stock could face further pressure.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

EPS is critical for assessing the company's profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment.

How have advisory fees changed in the current quarter?

Advisory fees are a key revenue driver, and changes could signal shifts in market demand for Moelis's services.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the potential for a rebound in advisory fees, which could drive a stronger-than-expected EPS this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Moelis has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% success rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility.

Recent market trends suggest a resurgence in M&A activity, which could benefit Moelis's advisory services.

Key Risk

If advisory fees show unexpected growth, it could challenge the current cautious outlook and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is currently cautious following a recent earnings miss, and the upcoming report will be crucial in determining the company's trajectory.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant beat on EPS, exceeding $0.59, would confirm the bull case and indicate strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.48 would reinforce bearish sentiment and suggest ongoing challenges for the company.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.47%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.5% while MC has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

29.2%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 1.25Puts (700)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moelis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a recovery in performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a significant decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 3.79%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on M&A activity trends and how they may impact advisory fees.
2Management's outlook on the competitive landscape in investment banking.
3Details on client retention and new client acquisition strategies.
4Insights into cost management and operational efficiency improvements.