Equity Profile

MEOH

Methanex Corporation

MaterialsCommodity Chemicals$4.5B

Apr29Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Methanex Misses on EPS, Stock Up 4.82%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.30	$0.42	-36.17%
Revenue	N/A	$978M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Methanex Misses on EPS, Stock Up 4.82%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.30	$0.42	-36.17%
Revenue	N/A	$978M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Methanex's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS, which may raise concerns among investors about profitability. However, the stock reacted positively, rising 4.82%, possibly due to market factors or investor sentiment unrelated to the earnings results. The lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves uncertainty about the company's future performance.

Company Snapshot

Methanex Corporation (MEOH) is a leading producer of methanol, a key ingredient in various industrial applications, including plastics and chemicals. Operating in the materials sector, Methanex plays a vital role in the commodity chemicals industry, which is influenced by global demand and supply dynamics.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.42

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for methanol.

$978M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+18.00%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.56%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Methanex reported an unexpected loss of $-0.14 per share, significantly missing analyst expectations. This performance followed a trend of mixed results in previous quarters, raising concerns about the company's profitability.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Methanex's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a rebound in EPS and revenue. However, the company has struggled with profitability in recent quarters, leading to mixed sentiments among investors.

Bull Case

If Methanex can achieve or exceed the consensus EPS of $0.42, it may signal a turnaround in profitability and renewed investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could reinforce concerns about its operational efficiency and lead to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.42

Earnings per share is a critical indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$978M

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for methanol.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Methanex achieve an EPS of $0.42 or higher?

This figure is crucial for assessing the company's recovery from previous losses and will likely influence investor sentiment.

What is the revenue outlook for the methanol market?

Understanding the revenue performance will provide insights into demand trends and the company's market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in methanol demand, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing an 8.5% move, indicating that traders expect significant volatility, which may not align with the consensus outlook.

Methanex's historical EPS beat rate of 75% suggests a stronger likelihood of exceeding expectations.

Key Risk

If methanol prices rebound significantly, the entire earnings narrative could shift positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is keenly focused on whether Methanex can stabilize its earnings after a series of disappointing results.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.42 or higher would confirm a positive shift in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.15 would suggest ongoing challenges and could lead to further declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.48%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation among traders.

Options are pricing ±8.5% while MEOH has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

65.7%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.18Puts (1K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 18 of 27 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.2%, with a raw directional average of +1.8% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Methanex beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.8%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about future performance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.7%, reinforcing concerns about the company's operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on methanol pricing trends and their impact on revenue.
2Insights into cost management strategies and operational efficiency improvements.
3Comments on global demand for methanol and how it affects future guidance.
4Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could influence growth.
5Management's outlook on the competitive landscape and market positioning.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Apr27

OMABReported

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V.

RecapView

Apr27

PIIReported

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.42

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for methanol.

$978M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+18.00%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.56%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Methanex can achieve or exceed the consensus EPS of $0.42, it may signal a turnaround in profitability and renewed investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could reinforce concerns about its operational efficiency and lead to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.42

Earnings per share is a critical indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$978M

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for methanol.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Methanex achieve an EPS of $0.42 or higher?

This figure is crucial for assessing the company's recovery from previous losses and will likely influence investor sentiment.

What is the revenue outlook for the methanol market?

Understanding the revenue performance will provide insights into demand trends and the company's market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in methanol demand, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing an 8.5% move, indicating that traders expect significant volatility, which may not align with the consensus outlook.

Methanex's historical EPS beat rate of 75% suggests a stronger likelihood of exceeding expectations.

Key Risk

If methanol prices rebound significantly, the entire earnings narrative could shift positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is keenly focused on whether Methanex can stabilize its earnings after a series of disappointing results.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.42 or higher would confirm a positive shift in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.15 would suggest ongoing challenges and could lead to further declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.48%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation among traders.

Options are pricing ±8.5% while MEOH has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

65.7%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.18Puts (1K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Methanex beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.8%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about future performance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.7%, reinforcing concerns about the company's operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on methanol pricing trends and their impact on revenue.
2Insights into cost management strategies and operational efficiency improvements.
3Comments on global demand for methanol and how it affects future guidance.
4Details on any new contracts or partnerships that could influence growth.
5Management's outlook on the competitive landscape and market positioning.