Equity Profile

MOS

The Mosaic Company

MaterialsFertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals$7.1B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Mosaic Company (MOS) is a leading producer of potash and phosphate crop nutrients, essential for agriculture. As a key player in the fertilizers and agricultural chemicals sector, its performance is closely tied to global agricultural trends and commodity prices.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will be keen to see if Mosaic can improve from its last disappointing results.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to agricultural demand, which is vital for future profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MOS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-44.87%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.47%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Mosaic reported an EPS of $0.05, significantly below the expected $0.20, leading to a stock decline of 1.80% the following day. The company has struggled to meet earnings expectations recently, raising concerns among investors.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, there is uncertainty surrounding Mosaic's upcoming earnings due to recent performance misses. Investors are looking for signs of recovery and improved guidance.

Bull Case

If Mosaic can demonstrate a rebound in EPS and revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in demand for agricultural products, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued misses on earnings and revenue could suggest deeper issues within the company or the agricultural sector, leading to further stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS and revenue figures for Q2 2026?

Given the recent earnings misses, the market will closely scrutinize these numbers to assess whether the company is on a recovery path.

How is Mosaic managing its costs and margins in the current economic environment?

Understanding cost management strategies will be crucial for evaluating the company's ability to maintain profitability amid fluctuating commodity prices.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in agricultural demand, which could positively impact Mosaic's performance this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

The recent trend of significant earnings misses may have led to overly pessimistic projections for this quarter.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $0.20, it could challenge the current negative sentiment surrounding the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Mosaic can recover from recent earnings misses and improve its financial performance.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.20 or higher with revenue growth would confirm a positive turnaround for the company.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05 and continued revenue decline would indicate ongoing struggles for Mosaic.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.46%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±21.5% while MOS has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

31.3%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (242K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mosaic beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted response, as investors await further commentary on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.45% on the first day, raising concerns about its financial health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on agricultural demand trends and how they are affecting sales.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Guidance for the next quarter and full year, especially regarding revenue expectations.
4Insights into how global commodity prices are influencing the business.
5Any commentary on operational efficiencies or new product developments.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will be keen to see if Mosaic can improve from its last disappointing results.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to expand its market share and respond to agricultural demand, which is vital for future profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MOS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-44.87%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.47%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, there is uncertainty surrounding Mosaic's upcoming earnings due to recent performance misses. Investors are looking for signs of recovery and improved guidance.

Bull Case

If Mosaic can demonstrate a rebound in EPS and revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in demand for agricultural products, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued misses on earnings and revenue could suggest deeper issues within the company or the agricultural sector, leading to further stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS and revenue figures for Q2 2026?

Given the recent earnings misses, the market will closely scrutinize these numbers to assess whether the company is on a recovery path.

How is Mosaic managing its costs and margins in the current economic environment?

Understanding cost management strategies will be crucial for evaluating the company's ability to maintain profitability amid fluctuating commodity prices.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in agricultural demand, which could positively impact Mosaic's performance this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

The recent trend of significant earnings misses may have led to overly pessimistic projections for this quarter.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $0.20, it could challenge the current negative sentiment surrounding the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Mosaic can recover from recent earnings misses and improve its financial performance.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.20 or higher with revenue growth would confirm a positive turnaround for the company.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05 and continued revenue decline would indicate ongoing struggles for Mosaic.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.46%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±21.5% while MOS has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

31.3%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (242K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mosaic beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted response, as investors await further commentary on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.45% on the first day, raising concerns about its financial health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on agricultural demand trends and how they are affecting sales.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Guidance for the next quarter and full year, especially regarding revenue expectations.
4Insights into how global commodity prices are influencing the business.
5Any commentary on operational efficiencies or new product developments.