Equity Profile

MOS

The Mosaic Company

MaterialsFertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals$7.1B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Mosaic Company (MOS) is a leading producer of potash and phosphate crop nutrients, essential for agricultural productivity. As a key player in the materials sector, Mosaic's performance is closely tied to global agricultural trends and commodity prices, making it significant for investors focused on food production and sustainability.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Mosaic is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will provide insights into demand for Mosaic's products and overall market conditions in the agricultural sector.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MOS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-44.87%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.47%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Mosaic reported an EPS of $0.05, significantly missing expectations of $0.20. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.80% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving operational efficiency.
Commitment to maintaining competitive pricing.
Plans to enhance product offerings in response to market demand.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Mosaic's upcoming earnings are cautious, especially following recent earnings misses. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue.

Bull Case

If Mosaic can demonstrate improved margins and better-than-expected revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued earnings misses or weak guidance could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant misses in the past quarters, the EPS figure will be crucial for assessing whether Mosaic is on a recovery path.

How is Mosaic addressing operational efficiency and cost management?

Investors will be keen to hear about strategies to improve margins, especially in a challenging agricultural market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Mosaic's potential for a recovery in demand, especially if commodity prices stabilize or increase.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 21.46% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the underlying fundamentals.

Mosaic's recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in current analyst expectations.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $0.20, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around whether Mosaic can turn around its recent performance and regain investor confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.20 or better would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05 would reinforce the bear case, suggesting ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.46%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±21.5% while MOS has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

31.3%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (242K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 29 (41%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 12 of 29 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.8% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mosaic beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.03%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors await clearer guidance on future performance.

Miss

If the company misses again, history indicates a potential decline of about 1.45%, further shaking investor confidence.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
2Insights into demand trends for potash and phosphate products.
3Management's outlook on commodity price forecasts.
4Details on any new product developments or market expansions.
5Responses to questions about competitive pressures in the agricultural sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Aug3

ONBMO

ON Semiconductor Corporation

PreviewView

Aug3

LBMO

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Mosaic is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will provide insights into demand for Mosaic's products and overall market conditions in the agricultural sector.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MOS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-44.87%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.47%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Mosaic reported an EPS of $0.05, significantly missing expectations of $0.20. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.80% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving operational efficiency.
Commitment to maintaining competitive pricing.
Plans to enhance product offerings in response to market demand.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Mosaic's upcoming earnings are cautious, especially following recent earnings misses. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue.

Bull Case

If Mosaic can demonstrate improved margins and better-than-expected revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued earnings misses or weak guidance could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the significant misses in the past quarters, the EPS figure will be crucial for assessing whether Mosaic is on a recovery path.

How is Mosaic addressing operational efficiency and cost management?

Investors will be keen to hear about strategies to improve margins, especially in a challenging agricultural market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Mosaic's potential for a recovery in demand, especially if commodity prices stabilize or increase.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 21.46% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the underlying fundamentals.

Mosaic's recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in current analyst expectations.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $0.20, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around whether Mosaic can turn around its recent performance and regain investor confidence.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.20 or better would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.05 would reinforce the bear case, suggesting ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±21.46%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±21.5% while MOS has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

31.3%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (242K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 29 (41%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mosaic beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.03%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors await clearer guidance on future performance.

Miss

If the company misses again, history indicates a potential decline of about 1.45%, further shaking investor confidence.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
2Insights into demand trends for potash and phosphate products.
3Management's outlook on commodity price forecasts.
4Details on any new product developments or market expansions.
5Responses to questions about competitive pressures in the agricultural sector.