Equity Profile

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$86.7B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a major player in the energy sector, specifically in oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $87 billion, the company plays a crucial role in supplying fuel and other petroleum products, which are essential for transportation and various industries.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and is critical for assessing overall performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MPC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+196.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.48%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Marathon Petroleum reported an impressive EPS of $1.65, significantly beating estimates. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.16% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining strong refining margins.
Commitment to operational efficiency improvements.
Plans to explore new markets for growth.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Marathon Petroleum's upcoming earnings are mixed, with some investors optimistic about continued strong performance while others are cautious due to potential market volatility.

Bull Case

The bullish view hinges on the expectation that refining margins will remain robust, leading to higher-than-expected earnings and revenue growth.

Bear Case

Conversely, the bearish perspective suggests that any decline in oil prices or refining margins could negatively impact earnings, leading to a disappointing report.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the company's strong EPS surprises in recent quarters, this figure will be crucial for investor confidence and stock performance.

How are refining margins trending, and what guidance can be provided for the upcoming quarters?

Refining margins are a key driver of profitability, and any changes could significantly impact future earnings.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent operational efficiencies and cost management strategies that could lead to better-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.

Options pricing suggests a higher volatility expectation, which may reflect underlying positive sentiment not captured in consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on refining margins and overall market conditions, which are critical for Marathon's profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS of $2.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.00 would support the bear case, suggesting declining profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.48%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MPC has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.7%

Calls (113K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (43K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Marathon beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.71%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors weigh management's commentary on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 6.13%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OHDavid J. TaylorRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margin trends and their impact on profitability.
2Details on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
3Guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter.
4Insights into market conditions affecting oil prices.
5Any commentary on potential expansion into new markets.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and is critical for assessing overall performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MPC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+196.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.48%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Marathon Petroleum reported an impressive EPS of $1.65, significantly beating estimates. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.16% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining strong refining margins.
Commitment to operational efficiency improvements.
Plans to explore new markets for growth.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

The bullish view hinges on the expectation that refining margins will remain robust, leading to higher-than-expected earnings and revenue growth.

Bear Case

Conversely, the bearish perspective suggests that any decline in oil prices or refining margins could negatively impact earnings, leading to a disappointing report.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the company's strong EPS surprises in recent quarters, this figure will be crucial for investor confidence and stock performance.

How are refining margins trending, and what guidance can be provided for the upcoming quarters?

Refining margins are a key driver of profitability, and any changes could significantly impact future earnings.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent operational efficiencies and cost management strategies that could lead to better-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.

Options pricing suggests a higher volatility expectation, which may reflect underlying positive sentiment not captured in consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on refining margins and overall market conditions, which are critical for Marathon's profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS of $2.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.00 would support the bear case, suggesting declining profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.48%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MPC has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.7%

Calls (113K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (43K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Marathon beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.71%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors weigh management's commentary on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 6.13%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OHDavid J. TaylorRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margin trends and their impact on profitability.
2Details on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
3Guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter.
4Insights into market conditions affecting oil prices.
5Any commentary on potential expansion into new markets.