Equity Profile

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$100.1B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on oil refining and marketing. With a market cap of $100 billion, it plays a crucial role in the oil and gas industry, which is vital for global energy supply and economic stability.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is performing compared to expectations.

$13.95

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$41.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MPC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+196.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.48%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Marathon Petroleum reported an EPS of $1.65, significantly beating estimates by 130.77%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.16% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect strong earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $13.95. The market is closely watching how the company navigates current oil prices and demand.

Bull Case

If Marathon Petroleum exceeds EPS expectations, it could signal robust operational efficiency and strong market demand, leading to further stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates, it may raise concerns about profitability and market conditions, potentially leading to a decline in stock value.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$13.95

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is performing compared to expectations.

Revenue

$41.4B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $13.95?

A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence and indicate strong operational performance.

What are the revenue expectations in light of current oil prices?

Revenue performance will provide insights into market demand and pricing power, which are crucial for future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent oil price fluctuations on Marathon's profitability, which could lead to a larger-than-expected EPS.

Supporting Evidence

Marathon's strong historical EPS beat rate of 88% suggests it often exceeds expectations.

The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that traders are anticipating volatility, which may not align with consensus views.

Key Risk

If oil prices rise significantly, it could boost margins and lead to an EPS well above consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will reflect how well Marathon Petroleum is managing costs and capitalizing on market opportunities.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $14.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $12.00 would suggest potential challenges in profitability and market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.48%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MPC has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.7%

Calls (113K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (43K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Marathon Petroleum beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.71%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 6.13%, raising concerns about the company's profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on oil price impacts on margins.
2Updates on refining capacity and operational efficiency.
3Insights into demand trends in the oil and gas market.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and market conditions.
5Any changes in capital expenditure plans.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is performing compared to expectations.

$13.95

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$41.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MPC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+196.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.48%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Marathon Petroleum reported an EPS of $1.65, significantly beating estimates by 130.77%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.16% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect strong earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $13.95. The market is closely watching how the company navigates current oil prices and demand.

Bull Case

If Marathon Petroleum exceeds EPS expectations, it could signal robust operational efficiency and strong market demand, leading to further stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates, it may raise concerns about profitability and market conditions, potentially leading to a decline in stock value.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$13.95

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is performing compared to expectations.

Revenue

$41.4B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $13.95?

A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence and indicate strong operational performance.

What are the revenue expectations in light of current oil prices?

Revenue performance will provide insights into market demand and pricing power, which are crucial for future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent oil price fluctuations on Marathon's profitability, which could lead to a larger-than-expected EPS.

Supporting Evidence

Marathon's strong historical EPS beat rate of 88% suggests it often exceeds expectations.

The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that traders are anticipating volatility, which may not align with consensus views.

Key Risk

If oil prices rise significantly, it could boost margins and lead to an EPS well above consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will reflect how well Marathon Petroleum is managing costs and capitalizing on market opportunities.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $14.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $12.00 would suggest potential challenges in profitability and market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.48%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MPC has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.7%

Calls (113K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (43K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Marathon Petroleum beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.71%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 6.13%, raising concerns about the company's profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on oil price impacts on margins.
2Updates on refining capacity and operational efficiency.
3Insights into demand trends in the oil and gas market.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and market conditions.
5Any changes in capital expenditure plans.