Equity Profile

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$72.6B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading energy company focused on refining and marketing oil and gas products. With a market cap of $73 billion, it plays a crucial role in the energy sector, especially as global demand for fuel continues to evolve amidst shifts toward renewable energy sources.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

N/A

Refining Margins

Refining margins indicate the profitability of converting crude oil into refined products, which is central to MPC's business.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MPC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+196.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.48%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Marathon Petroleum reported an impressive EPS of $1.65, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.16% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving refining capacity and efficiency.
Commitment to maintaining strong cash flow generation.
Plans to explore new markets and expand product offerings.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as analysts await clarity on refining margins and revenue growth amid fluctuating oil prices. Investors are particularly interested in how the company will navigate current market conditions.

Bull Case

If Marathon Petroleum can demonstrate strong refining margins and robust revenue growth, it could signal a strong recovery and increased profitability, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports weaker-than-expected refining margins or revenue declines, it could raise concerns about its ability to sustain profitability, potentially leading to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the expected refining margins for Q2-2026?

Refining margins are critical for profitability, and any guidance on this metric will significantly influence investor sentiment.

How is the company addressing current market volatility in oil prices?

Understanding how Marathon Petroleum plans to navigate price fluctuations will be crucial for assessing future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for refining margins to recover due to recent supply chain improvements and increased demand for refined products.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for volatility.

Past performance shows a strong EPS beat rate of 88%, suggesting the company may exceed expectations again.

Recent insider selling could indicate a cautious approach, but it does not necessarily reflect the company's operational strength.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed $15 per barrel, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the sustainability of refining margins amid volatile oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

If refining margins exceed $15 per barrel, it would confirm a strong bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If refining margins fall below $10 per barrel, it would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.48%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MPC has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.7%

Calls (113K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (43K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Marathon Petroleum beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.71%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted stock movement as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 6.13%, raising concerns about profitability.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OHDavid J. TaylorRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margin expectations for the upcoming quarter.
2Details on how the company plans to manage oil price volatility.
3Insights into new market opportunities or product expansions.
4Management's commentary on cost management and efficiency improvements.
5Any changes in capital expenditure plans or investment strategies.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

N/A

Refining Margins

Refining margins indicate the profitability of converting crude oil into refined products, which is central to MPC's business.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MPC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+196.17%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.48%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Marathon Petroleum reported an impressive EPS of $1.65, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.16% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving refining capacity and efficiency.
Commitment to maintaining strong cash flow generation.
Plans to explore new markets and expand product offerings.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Marathon Petroleum can demonstrate strong refining margins and robust revenue growth, it could signal a strong recovery and increased profitability, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the expected refining margins for Q2-2026?

Refining margins are critical for profitability, and any guidance on this metric will significantly influence investor sentiment.

How is the company addressing current market volatility in oil prices?

Understanding how Marathon Petroleum plans to navigate price fluctuations will be crucial for assessing future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for refining margins to recover due to recent supply chain improvements and increased demand for refined products.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for volatility.

Past performance shows a strong EPS beat rate of 88%, suggesting the company may exceed expectations again.

Recent insider selling could indicate a cautious approach, but it does not necessarily reflect the company's operational strength.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed $15 per barrel, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the sustainability of refining margins amid volatile oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

If refining margins exceed $15 per barrel, it would confirm a strong bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If refining margins fall below $10 per barrel, it would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.48%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MPC has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.7%

Calls (113K)P/C Ratio: 0.71Puts (43K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Marathon Petroleum beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.71%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted stock movement as investors await further clarity on future guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 6.13%, raising concerns about profitability.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-OHDavid J. TaylorRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margin expectations for the upcoming quarter.
2Details on how the company plans to manage oil price volatility.
3Insights into new market opportunities or product expansions.
4Management's commentary on cost management and efficiency improvements.
5Any changes in capital expenditure plans or investment strategies.