Equity Profile

MRNA

Moderna, Inc.

Health CareBiotechnology$18.8B

May1Fri

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:30 AM EDT

Moderna Misses on EPS, Stock Down 1.24%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-3.40	$-2.90	-12.58%
Revenue	N/A	$248M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Moderna Misses on EPS, Stock Down 1.24%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-3.40	$-2.90	-12.58%
Revenue	N/A	$248M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Moderna's earnings report shows a larger-than-expected loss per share, which contributed to a slight decline in the stock price. Investors were likely disappointed by the EPS miss, as revenue figures were not disclosed. The lack of guidance further adds uncertainty to the company's outlook.

Company Snapshot

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter's consensus shows a significant loss.

$-2.90

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$248M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics. With a market cap of $18 billion, it plays a crucial role in the health care sector, especially in response to infectious diseases and other medical challenges.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+27.75%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.15%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Moderna reported an EPS of $-2.11, which was better than analysts' expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.29% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting a challenging quarter for Moderna, with a consensus EPS loss of $-2.90 and revenue of $248 million. The company has had a mixed track record in recent quarters.

Bull Case

If Moderna can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of recovery in its core business, it could lead to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Continued losses and lower-than-expected revenue could signal deeper issues within the company, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-2.90

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter's consensus shows a significant loss.

Revenue

$248M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Moderna's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $248 million?

Revenue performance is critical to assess the company's market demand and overall health, especially after recent losses.

What is the outlook for EPS given the consensus estimate of $-2.90?

The EPS figure will indicate how well the company is managing costs and whether it can return to profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a revenue rebound, as recent product developments could drive sales higher than expected.

Supporting Evidence

Recent earnings surprises indicate that the company can outperform expectations.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for volatility.

Moderna's ongoing innovations in mRNA technology could lead to unexpected revenue streams.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in above $248 million, it could shift market sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for recovery against the backdrop of recent financial struggles.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue exceeding $248 million and a smaller EPS loss than expected would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $-2.90 and revenue below $248 million would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.25%

Historical Avg

±6.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.2% while MRNA has averaged ±6.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.6%

30d HV

45.7%

Calls (894K)P/C Ratio: 1.20Puts (555K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moderna beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +3.35%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as the market digests the implications of the results.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +3.35%, indicating a negative market reaction.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or pipeline developments.
2Details on sales performance in key markets.
3Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
4Insights into future guidance and expectations for the rest of the year.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Apr28

AITReported

Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.

RecapView

Apr28

ZBHReported

Company Snapshot

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter's consensus shows a significant loss.

$-2.90

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$248M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+27.75%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.15%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Moderna reported an EPS of $-2.11, which was better than analysts' expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.29% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting a challenging quarter for Moderna, with a consensus EPS loss of $-2.90 and revenue of $248 million. The company has had a mixed track record in recent quarters.

Bull Case

If Moderna can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of recovery in its core business, it could lead to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Continued losses and lower-than-expected revenue could signal deeper issues within the company, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-2.90

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter's consensus shows a significant loss.

Revenue

$248M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Moderna's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $248 million?

Revenue performance is critical to assess the company's market demand and overall health, especially after recent losses.

What is the outlook for EPS given the consensus estimate of $-2.90?

The EPS figure will indicate how well the company is managing costs and whether it can return to profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a revenue rebound, as recent product developments could drive sales higher than expected.

Supporting Evidence

Recent earnings surprises indicate that the company can outperform expectations.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for volatility.

Moderna's ongoing innovations in mRNA technology could lead to unexpected revenue streams.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in above $248 million, it could shift market sentiment significantly.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for recovery against the backdrop of recent financial struggles.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue exceeding $248 million and a smaller EPS loss than expected would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $-2.90 and revenue below $248 million would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.25%

Historical Avg

±6.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.2% while MRNA has averaged ±6.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.6%

30d HV

45.7%

Calls (894K)P/C Ratio: 1.20Puts (555K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moderna beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +3.35%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as the market digests the implications of the results.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +3.35%, indicating a negative market reaction.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or pipeline developments.
2Details on sales performance in key markets.
3Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
4Insights into future guidance and expectations for the rest of the year.