Equity Profile

MRNA

Moderna, Inc.

Health CareBiotechnology$26.6B

Jul31Fri

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is vital for assessing the company's market demand and overall business health, especially after the pandemic-driven surge in vaccine sales.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MRNA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics. With a market cap of $27 billion, it plays a crucial role in the healthcare sector, particularly in response to infectious diseases and potential pandemic threats.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+27.75%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.15%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Moderna reported an EPS of -$3.40, missing estimates by 12.58%. The stock reacted negatively, declining 1.24% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations are mixed, with some analysts anticipating a recovery in EPS and revenue, while others remain cautious due to recent performance.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on a potential rebound in vaccine demand and improved cost management, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Bear Case

Conversely, the pessimistic outlook is driven by concerns over declining vaccine sales and ongoing operational challenges, which could result in further losses.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current demand for Moderna's vaccines compared to last quarter?

This will indicate whether the company can sustain revenue levels or if it faces a significant decline.

What are the projected timelines for upcoming product launches?

Timelines for new products can significantly impact future revenue and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in vaccine sales as new variants emerge, which could drive demand higher than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a 16.5% move, suggesting traders expect significant volatility.

Historical data shows that Moderna has a 75% EPS beat rate, indicating a tendency to outperform expectations.

Key Risk

If vaccine sales exceed current projections, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Moderna can recover from recent losses and capitalize on its mRNA technology.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS surprise of more than $3.00 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $4.00 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.5%

Historical Avg

±6.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MRNA has averaged ±6.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

55.7%

Calls (790K)P/C Ratio: 0.12Puts (624K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moderna beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.3%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.1%, reinforcing bearish sentiment and concerns about ongoing losses.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on vaccine sales and demand trends.
2Any guidance on future product launches and timelines.
3Comments on cost management strategies.
4Insights into competitive positioning in the mRNA space.
5Management's outlook on market conditions and potential challenges.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help investors gauge how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is vital for assessing the company's market demand and overall business health, especially after the pandemic-driven surge in vaccine sales.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MRNA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+27.75%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.15%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Moderna reported an EPS of -$3.40, missing estimates by 12.58%. The stock reacted negatively, declining 1.24% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations are mixed, with some analysts anticipating a recovery in EPS and revenue, while others remain cautious due to recent performance.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on a potential rebound in vaccine demand and improved cost management, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Bear Case

Conversely, the pessimistic outlook is driven by concerns over declining vaccine sales and ongoing operational challenges, which could result in further losses.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current demand for Moderna's vaccines compared to last quarter?

This will indicate whether the company can sustain revenue levels or if it faces a significant decline.

What are the projected timelines for upcoming product launches?

Timelines for new products can significantly impact future revenue and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in vaccine sales as new variants emerge, which could drive demand higher than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a 16.5% move, suggesting traders expect significant volatility.

Historical data shows that Moderna has a 75% EPS beat rate, indicating a tendency to outperform expectations.

Key Risk

If vaccine sales exceed current projections, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Moderna can recover from recent losses and capitalize on its mRNA technology.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS surprise of more than $3.00 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $4.00 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.5%

Historical Avg

±6.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MRNA has averaged ±6.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

55.7%

Calls (790K)P/C Ratio: 0.12Puts (624K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moderna beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.3%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.1%, reinforcing bearish sentiment and concerns about ongoing losses.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on vaccine sales and demand trends.
2Any guidance on future product launches and timelines.
3Comments on cost management strategies.
4Insights into competitive positioning in the mRNA space.
5Management's outlook on market conditions and potential challenges.