Equity Profile

MRNA

Moderna, Inc.

Health CareBiotechnology$25.4B

Jul31Fri

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing mRNA-based vaccines and therapies....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs.

$-2.04

Revenue

Revenue figures will indicate the demand for Moderna's products and its ability to generate sales, especially post-COVID.

$104M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MRNA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing mRNA-based vaccines and therapies. With a market cap of $25 billion, it plays a significant role in the health care sector, particularly in vaccine development and infectious disease prevention.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+27.75%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.15%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Moderna reported an EPS of $-3.40, missing estimates by 12.58%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.24% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect continued losses for Moderna, with a consensus EPS of $-2.04 and revenue of $104 million. The market is watching closely for signs of recovery or further deterioration.

Bull Case

If Moderna can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of a turnaround in profitability, it could boost investor confidence and drive the stock higher.

Bear Case

Should the company report worse-than-expected earnings and revenue, it may reinforce concerns about its long-term viability, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-2.04

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs.

Revenue

$104M

Revenue figures will indicate the demand for Moderna's products and its ability to generate sales, especially post-COVID.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Moderna's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $104 million?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing demand for its products and overall business health.

What specific plans does management have to improve EPS from the expected $-2.04?

Investors will be looking for actionable strategies that could lead to a path toward profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a revenue surprise given recent trends in vaccine demand and new product pipelines.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 16.5% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Moderna's recent history shows a 75% EPS beat rate, suggesting potential for positive surprises.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in significantly above $104 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for recovery against ongoing financial losses, making this earnings report pivotal.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue exceeding $104 million and a significant reduction in EPS losses would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than the consensus of $-2.04 would confirm bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.5%

Historical Avg

±6.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MRNA has averaged ±6.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

55.7%

Calls (790K)P/C Ratio: 0.12Puts (624K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moderna beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 4.55%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.06%, reinforcing existing concerns about the company's financial health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or vaccine approvals.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
3Insights into vaccine demand trends and market competition.
4Plans for future research and development investments.
5Any changes in guidance or outlook for the remainder of the year.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing mRNA-based vaccines and therapies....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs.

$-2.04

Revenue

Revenue figures will indicate the demand for Moderna's products and its ability to generate sales, especially post-COVID.

$104M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

MRNA Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+27.75%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.15%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Moderna reported an EPS of $-3.40, missing estimates by 12.58%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.24% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect continued losses for Moderna, with a consensus EPS of $-2.04 and revenue of $104 million. The market is watching closely for signs of recovery or further deterioration.

Bull Case

If Moderna can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of a turnaround in profitability, it could boost investor confidence and drive the stock higher.

Bear Case

Should the company report worse-than-expected earnings and revenue, it may reinforce concerns about its long-term viability, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-2.04

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs.

Revenue

$104M

Revenue figures will indicate the demand for Moderna's products and its ability to generate sales, especially post-COVID.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Moderna's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $104 million?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing demand for its products and overall business health.

What specific plans does management have to improve EPS from the expected $-2.04?

Investors will be looking for actionable strategies that could lead to a path toward profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a revenue surprise given recent trends in vaccine demand and new product pipelines.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 16.5% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Moderna's recent history shows a 75% EPS beat rate, suggesting potential for positive surprises.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in significantly above $104 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for recovery against ongoing financial losses, making this earnings report pivotal.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue exceeding $104 million and a significant reduction in EPS losses would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than the consensus of $-2.04 would confirm bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.5%

Historical Avg

±6.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±16.5% while MRNA has averaged ±6.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

55.7%

Calls (790K)P/C Ratio: 0.12Puts (624K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Moderna beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 4.55%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.06%, reinforcing existing concerns about the company's financial health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or vaccine approvals.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
3Insights into vaccine demand trends and market competition.
4Plans for future research and development investments.
5Any changes in guidance or outlook for the remainder of the year.