Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
MGIC Investment Corp is a leading provider of mortgage insurance in the financial sector, specifically focusing on both commercial and residential properties. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a crucial role in facilitating home ownership by protecting lenders against mortgage defaults, which is especially relevant in today's fluctuating housing market.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.
Revenue
Total revenue reflects the company's overall sales performance and growth potential in the mortgage finance industry.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
8Q
EPS Beat Rate
100%
Avg EPS Surprise
+13.51%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.05%
In the last quarter, MGIC reported an EPS of $0.75, exceeding expectations by 3.16%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.34% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect MGIC to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates, with a consensus EPS of $0.74 for Q1-2026. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its profitability amid changing market conditions.
Bull Case
If MGIC reports an EPS above $0.75, it could signal strong demand for mortgage insurance and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the EPS falls below $0.73, it may raise concerns about the company's ability to navigate a potentially challenging housing market.
EPS
$0.74Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.
Revenue
$303MTotal revenue reflects the company's overall sales performance and growth potential in the mortgage finance industry.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will MGIC's EPS exceed $0.75 this quarter?
A higher EPS would indicate strong operational performance and could boost investor confidence.
Q2
What are the management's insights on the current housing market conditions?
Understanding management's perspective on market challenges will help investors gauge future performance and risk.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating MGIC's ability to navigate a challenging housing market, as recent trends show resilience in mortgage demand.
Supporting Evidence
MGIC has consistently beaten EPS estimates over the last eight quarters, indicating strong operational performance.
The company's historical performance suggests it can maintain profitability even in fluctuating market conditions.
Key Risk
If the EPS comes in below $0.73, it could undermine confidence in MGIC's market position.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The debate centers around MGIC's ability to maintain profitability in a fluctuating housing market.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.75 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and effective cost management.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.73 would support the bear case, raising concerns about the company's performance in a challenging market.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±N/A
Historical Avg
±1.2%
There is no options market data available to gauge investor sentiment ahead of the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±2.1% while MTG has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
30d HV
16.4%
Edge
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat setup in Financials
n=30Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.5%, with a raw directional average of +0.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If MGIC beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.05%, confirming strong demand for mortgage insurance.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable, but cautious commentary could lead to a muted reaction.
Miss
Should MGIC miss expectations, the stock could see a decline, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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