Equity Profile

MUSA

Murphy USA Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$11.3B

Apr29Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:31 PM EDT

Murphy USA Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Down 1.1%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$7.28	$4.98	+52.08%
Revenue	N/A	$4.6B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Murphy USA Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Down 1.1%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$7.28	$4.98	+52.08%
Revenue	N/A	$4.6B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Murphy USA's strong EPS performance significantly exceeded expectations, indicating robust profitability. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.1%, which may reflect investor concerns or profit-taking despite the earnings beat. The lack of revenue data and guidance may also contribute to uncertainty among investors.

Company Snapshot

Murphy USA Inc. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$4.98

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand, which is crucial for assessing growth potential.

$4.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Murphy USA Inc. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail. The company is known for its network of gas stations and convenience stores, which play a vital role in meeting consumer demand for fuel and convenience products.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+6.53%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.05%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Murphy USA reported an EPS of $7.53, exceeding expectations by 12.84%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.30% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic about Murphy USA's upcoming earnings, expecting solid performance based on previous results.

Bull Case

If the company meets or exceeds the EPS estimate, it could indicate strong operational efficiency and consumer demand, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company falls short of expectations, it may raise concerns about market conditions or operational challenges, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$4.98

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$4.6B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand, which is crucial for assessing growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $4.98?

This figure is critical as it reflects the company's ability to generate profits and could significantly influence investor sentiment.

What insights can management provide regarding revenue growth and market conditions?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge consumer demand and operational effectiveness, which are vital for future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the impact of recent fuel price fluctuations on Murphy USA's margins, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational management, which could continue despite market pressures.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant reaction.

Key Risk

If fuel prices stabilize or decline, it could enhance margins and lead to a positive earnings surprise.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Murphy USA can sustain its recent profitability levels amid changing consumer behaviors and economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.50 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.00 would confirm the bear case, indicating potential struggles in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.03%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.0% while MUSA has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

35.5%

Calls (24K)P/C Ratio: 0.80Puts (800)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 20 (30%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 14 of 20 (70%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.9%, with a raw directional average of -0.2% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Murphy USA beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.13%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest management's commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 0.12%, raising concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on fuel price trends and their impact on margins.
2Insights into consumer behavior changes at convenience stores.
3Updates on expansion plans or new store openings.
4Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting consumer spending.
5Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.

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Company Snapshot

Murphy USA Inc. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$4.98

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand, which is crucial for assessing growth potential.

$4.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+6.53%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.05%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Murphy USA reported an EPS of $7.53, exceeding expectations by 12.84%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.30% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic about Murphy USA's upcoming earnings, expecting solid performance based on previous results.

Bull Case

If the company meets or exceeds the EPS estimate, it could indicate strong operational efficiency and consumer demand, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company falls short of expectations, it may raise concerns about market conditions or operational challenges, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$4.98

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$4.6B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand, which is crucial for assessing growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $4.98?

This figure is critical as it reflects the company's ability to generate profits and could significantly influence investor sentiment.

What insights can management provide regarding revenue growth and market conditions?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge consumer demand and operational effectiveness, which are vital for future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the impact of recent fuel price fluctuations on Murphy USA's margins, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational management, which could continue despite market pressures.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant reaction.

Key Risk

If fuel prices stabilize or decline, it could enhance margins and lead to a positive earnings surprise.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Murphy USA can sustain its recent profitability levels amid changing consumer behaviors and economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.50 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $4.00 would confirm the bear case, indicating potential struggles in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.03%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.0% while MUSA has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

35.5%

Calls (24K)P/C Ratio: 0.80Puts (800)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 20 (30%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Murphy USA beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.13%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest management's commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 0.12%, raising concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on fuel price trends and their impact on margins.
2Insights into consumer behavior changes at convenience stores.
3Updates on expansion plans or new store openings.
4Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting consumer spending.
5Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.