Equity Profile

NEM

Newmont Corporation

MaterialsGold$105.9B

Jul23Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Newmont Corporation (NEM) is a leading gold mining company, operating mines and projects across several countries. As a major player in the materials sector, its performance is closely tied to gold prices and global economic conditions, making it a key focus for investors interested in commodity markets.

Key Metrics to Watch

Gold Production

This metric indicates the company's operational efficiency and ability to meet market demand.

1.5 million ounces

Cost of Sales per Ounce

Understanding production costs helps gauge profitability, especially with fluctuating gold prices.

$1,200

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NEM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+33.89%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Newmont reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.90, significantly beating estimates by 40%. Despite the positive surprise, the stock dipped slightly the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Newmont's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of specific guidance raises questions about future performance.

Bull Case

If Newmont continues its trend of strong production and manages costs effectively, it could see significant upside in its stock price, especially if gold prices remain stable or increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if production costs rise or gold prices fall, Newmont may struggle to maintain profitability, leading to disappointing results and potential stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

Gold Production

1.5 million ounces

This metric indicates the company's operational efficiency and ability to meet market demand.

Cost of Sales per Ounce

$1,200

Understanding production costs helps gauge profitability, especially with fluctuating gold prices.

Free Cash Flow

$500 million

Free cash flow is crucial for assessing the company's ability to invest in growth or return capital to shareholders.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected gold production for the quarter?

Production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a critical number for investors.

What is the updated cost of sales per ounce?

Understanding cost trends will help assess the company's profitability in the current gold price environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Newmont's ability to manage costs effectively despite rising production levels, which could lead to better-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

Newmont has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting operational strength.

The options market is pricing a large move, indicating potential volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Recent trends in gold prices have been favorable, which could support higher production and lower costs.

Key Risk

If production costs come in above $1,300 per ounce, it could significantly undermine the bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around production efficiency and cost management in a fluctuating gold market.

Bull Confirmed If

Gold production exceeding 1.5 million ounces with cost of sales per ounce below $1,200.

Bear Confirmed If

Gold production falling below 1.4 million ounces or cost of sales exceeding $1,300.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.44%

Historical Avg

±1.32%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move following the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing a 10.4% move, while the stock has averaged only 1.3% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

53.6%

Calls (558K)P/C Ratio: 0.26Puts (532K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.6% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Newmont beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.35% on the following day, confirming bullish sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors weigh management's commentary against current market conditions.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.60%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on gold production forecasts for the next quarter.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into global gold demand trends and how they might impact pricing.
4Management's outlook on future capital expenditures and investments.
5Any commentary on geopolitical factors affecting gold prices.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Gold Production

This metric indicates the company's operational efficiency and ability to meet market demand.

1.5 million ounces

Cost of Sales per Ounce

Understanding production costs helps gauge profitability, especially with fluctuating gold prices.

$1,200

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NEM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+33.89%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.10%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Newmont continues its trend of strong production and manages costs effectively, it could see significant upside in its stock price, especially if gold prices remain stable or increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if production costs rise or gold prices fall, Newmont may struggle to maintain profitability, leading to disappointing results and potential stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

Gold Production

1.5 million ounces

This metric indicates the company's operational efficiency and ability to meet market demand.

Cost of Sales per Ounce

$1,200

Understanding production costs helps gauge profitability, especially with fluctuating gold prices.

Free Cash Flow

$500 million

Free cash flow is crucial for assessing the company's ability to invest in growth or return capital to shareholders.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected gold production for the quarter?

Production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a critical number for investors.

What is the updated cost of sales per ounce?

Understanding cost trends will help assess the company's profitability in the current gold price environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Newmont's ability to manage costs effectively despite rising production levels, which could lead to better-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

Newmont has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting operational strength.

The options market is pricing a large move, indicating potential volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Recent trends in gold prices have been favorable, which could support higher production and lower costs.

Key Risk

If production costs come in above $1,300 per ounce, it could significantly undermine the bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around production efficiency and cost management in a fluctuating gold market.

Bull Confirmed If

Gold production exceeding 1.5 million ounces with cost of sales per ounce below $1,200.

Bear Confirmed If

Gold production falling below 1.4 million ounces or cost of sales exceeding $1,300.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.44%

Historical Avg

±1.32%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move following the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing a 10.4% move, while the stock has averaged only 1.3% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

53.6%

Calls (558K)P/C Ratio: 0.26Puts (532K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Newmont beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.35% on the following day, confirming bullish sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors weigh management's commentary against current market conditions.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.60%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on gold production forecasts for the next quarter.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into global gold demand trends and how they might impact pricing.
4Management's outlook on future capital expenditures and investments.
5Any commentary on geopolitical factors affecting gold prices.