Equity Profile

NOG

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production$2.6B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is an energy company focused on oil and gas exploration and production....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

$0.97

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth.

$598M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NOG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is an energy company focused on oil and gas exploration and production. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the energy sector, especially as global demand for oil fluctuates.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.03%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.17%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Northern Oil and Gas reported an EPS of $0.74, slightly below the estimate of $0.75. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.57% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Northern Oil and Gas to report an EPS of $0.97 and revenue of $598 million for Q2 2026. The market is watching closely for any surprises given the company's mixed earnings history.

Bull Case

If Northern Oil exceeds EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational efficiency and demand for its products, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings estimates, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the oil market, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.97

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$598M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.97?

A beat on EPS could indicate improved operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What are the revenue figures compared to the consensus of $598 million?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of rising oil prices on Northern Oil's profitability this quarter. The market's focus on recent earnings misses could overshadow potential gains from improved commodity pricing.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 9.22% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's recent EPS surprises suggest a trend of beating expectations, which could continue this quarter.

The put/call ratio indicates a bullish sentiment, suggesting that investors are positioning for a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If oil prices rise significantly, it could lead to a much stronger performance than the current consensus anticipates.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it follows a mixed earnings history, and investors are keen to see if the company can stabilize its earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.10 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.80 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.22%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.2% while NOG has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

45.9%

Calls (109K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (73K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Northern Oil beats expectations, history suggests the stock could react positively, potentially gaining around 1.25% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary.

Miss

If the company misses earnings estimates, the average reaction has been a decline of about 1.04%, indicating potential investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and how they align with market demand.
2Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Comments on the outlook for oil prices and how they may affect future earnings.
4Details on any new projects or acquisitions that could drive growth.
5Management's perspective on market conditions and competitive positioning.

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Company Snapshot

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is an energy company focused on oil and gas exploration and production....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

$0.97

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth.

$598M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NOG Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.03%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.17%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Northern Oil and Gas reported an EPS of $0.74, slightly below the estimate of $0.75. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.57% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Northern Oil and Gas to report an EPS of $0.97 and revenue of $598 million for Q2 2026. The market is watching closely for any surprises given the company's mixed earnings history.

Bull Case

If Northern Oil exceeds EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational efficiency and demand for its products, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings estimates, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the oil market, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.97

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$598M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.97?

A beat on EPS could indicate improved operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What are the revenue figures compared to the consensus of $598 million?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 9.22% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's recent EPS surprises suggest a trend of beating expectations, which could continue this quarter.

The put/call ratio indicates a bullish sentiment, suggesting that investors are positioning for a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If oil prices rise significantly, it could lead to a much stronger performance than the current consensus anticipates.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it follows a mixed earnings history, and investors are keen to see if the company can stabilize its earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.10 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.80 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.22%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.2% while NOG has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

45.9%

Calls (109K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (73K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Northern Oil beats expectations, history suggests the stock could react positively, potentially gaining around 1.25% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary.

Miss

If the company misses earnings estimates, the average reaction has been a decline of about 1.04%, indicating potential investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and how they align with market demand.
2Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Comments on the outlook for oil prices and how they may affect future earnings.
4Details on any new projects or acquisitions that could drive growth.
5Management's perspective on market conditions and competitive positioning.