Equity Profile

OBDC

Blue Owl Capital Corporation

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$5.4B

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Blue Owl Capital Corporation operates in the financial sector, specifically focusing on asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $5 billion, the company plays a crucial role in managing investments and providing financial services, which are essential in today's economy as investors seek reliable management of their assets.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$0.35

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain clients, which is vital for its long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

OBDC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-6.80%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.11%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Blue Owl reported an EPS of $0.31, falling short of the expected $0.35, which led to a slight decline in stock price. The company continues to navigate a challenging market environment, impacting its performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Blue Owl's upcoming earnings are cautious, especially following the recent EPS miss. Investors are looking for signs of improvement in profitability and asset management performance.

Bull Case

If Blue Owl can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in performance, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, another earnings miss or weak guidance could further dampen investor sentiment, potentially leading to a significant drop in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.35

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain clients, which is vital for its long-term success.

Assets Under Management (AUM)

N/A

AUM is a critical metric in asset management, indicating the total market value of assets managed by the company.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the estimated $0.35?

A positive surprise in EPS could indicate improved profitability and boost investor confidence.

What is the current status of assets under management?

AUM is crucial for assessing the company's growth potential and overall financial health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Blue Owl's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, especially given the potential for improved asset management performance.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 14.88% move, indicating expectations for significant volatility.

Historical data shows that the stock has a tendency to recover after earnings misses, with 63% of similar setups holding their direction.

The recent trend in asset management suggests a potential uptick in AUM, which could positively impact earnings.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Blue Owl can recover from recent earnings misses and show growth in key metrics.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.36 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.88%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.9% while OBDC has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

23.3%

Calls (13K)P/C Ratio: 0.05Puts (74K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Blue Owl beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +0.31%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain relatively stable, but cautious commentary could lead to volatility.

Miss

A miss could result in a slight decline, with history suggesting an average move of -0.01% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on assets under management and growth strategies.
2Details on cost management and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into market conditions affecting asset management.
4Any commentary on client retention and new client acquisition.
5Management's outlook on future earnings and market trends.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$0.35

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain clients, which is vital for its long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

OBDC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-6.80%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.11%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Blue Owl can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in performance, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, another earnings miss or weak guidance could further dampen investor sentiment, potentially leading to a significant drop in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.35

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain clients, which is vital for its long-term success.

Assets Under Management (AUM)

N/A

AUM is a critical metric in asset management, indicating the total market value of assets managed by the company.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the estimated $0.35?

A positive surprise in EPS could indicate improved profitability and boost investor confidence.

What is the current status of assets under management?

AUM is crucial for assessing the company's growth potential and overall financial health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Blue Owl's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, especially given the potential for improved asset management performance.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 14.88% move, indicating expectations for significant volatility.

Historical data shows that the stock has a tendency to recover after earnings misses, with 63% of similar setups holding their direction.

The recent trend in asset management suggests a potential uptick in AUM, which could positively impact earnings.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Blue Owl can recover from recent earnings misses and show growth in key metrics.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.36 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.88%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.9% while OBDC has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

23.3%

Calls (13K)P/C Ratio: 0.05Puts (74K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Blue Owl beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +0.31%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain relatively stable, but cautious commentary could lead to volatility.

Miss

A miss could result in a slight decline, with history suggesting an average move of -0.01% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on assets under management and growth strategies.
2Details on cost management and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into market conditions affecting asset management.
4Any commentary on client retention and new client acquisition.
5Management's outlook on future earnings and market trends.