Equity Profile

OBDC

Blue Owl Capital Corporation

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$5.9B

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Blue Owl Capital Corporation operates in the financial sector, focusing on asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $6 billion, the company plays a significant role in managing investments and providing financial services, which are crucial in today's economic environment as investors seek reliable management of their assets.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability, and investors will be looking for signs of growth or decline.

N/A

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM reflects the total market value of the assets that Blue Owl manages, which is crucial for understanding the company's scale and revenue potential.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

OBDC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-6.80%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.11%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Blue Owl reported an EPS of $0.31, missing estimates by 10.66%. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.26% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, especially after the recent EPS miss. The focus will be on whether the company can improve its performance this quarter.

Bull Case

If Blue Owl can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved profitability, it could restore investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations or shows weak AUM growth, it could further depress the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter?

Given the recent trend of missing EPS estimates, this number will be critical in determining investor sentiment.

What is the current AUM and growth outlook?

AUM growth is vital for revenue generation, and any guidance on this front will significantly impact market expectations.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Blue Owl's potential for AUM growth, as recent trends in the asset management industry suggest a rebound in investor confidence.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a ±14.88% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with actual performance.

Historical data shows that the company has occasionally exceeded expectations despite recent misses.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of Blue Owl's performance.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is currently skeptical about Blue Owl's ability to meet or exceed earnings expectations, making these thresholds crucial.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.35 or better would confirm a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would suggest ongoing challenges in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.88%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.9% while OBDC has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

23.3%

Calls (13K)P/C Ratio: 0.05Puts (74K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Blue Owl beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.31%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement, reflecting ongoing caution among investors.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data indicating an average drop of -0.01% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on AUM growth and client acquisition strategies.
2Details on cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
3Insights into market conditions affecting asset management.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue growth.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent performance trends.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability, and investors will be looking for signs of growth or decline.

N/A

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM reflects the total market value of the assets that Blue Owl manages, which is crucial for understanding the company's scale and revenue potential.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

OBDC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-6.80%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.11%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Blue Owl reported an EPS of $0.31, missing estimates by 10.66%. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.26% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, especially after the recent EPS miss. The focus will be on whether the company can improve its performance this quarter.

Bull Case

If Blue Owl can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved profitability, it could restore investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations or shows weak AUM growth, it could further depress the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter?

Given the recent trend of missing EPS estimates, this number will be critical in determining investor sentiment.

What is the current AUM and growth outlook?

AUM growth is vital for revenue generation, and any guidance on this front will significantly impact market expectations.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Blue Owl's potential for AUM growth, as recent trends in the asset management industry suggest a rebound in investor confidence.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a ±14.88% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with actual performance.

Historical data shows that the company has occasionally exceeded expectations despite recent misses.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of Blue Owl's performance.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is currently skeptical about Blue Owl's ability to meet or exceed earnings expectations, making these thresholds crucial.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.35 or better would confirm a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would suggest ongoing challenges in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.88%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.9% while OBDC has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

23.3%

Calls (13K)P/C Ratio: 0.05Puts (74K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Blue Owl beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.31%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement, reflecting ongoing caution among investors.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data indicating an average drop of -0.01% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on AUM growth and client acquisition strategies.
2Details on cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
3Insights into market conditions affecting asset management.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue growth.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent performance trends.