Equity Profile

OLN

Olin Corporation

MaterialsCommodity Chemicals$2.8B

May7Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:05 PM EDT

Olin Corporation Misses on EPS, Stock Down 7.08%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.73	$-0.64	-8.79%
Revenue	N/A	$1.6B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Olin Corporation Misses on EPS, Stock Down 7.08%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.73	$-0.64	-8.79%
Revenue	N/A	$1.6B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Olin Corporation reported a larger-than-expected loss per share, which contributed to a significant decline in its stock price by over 7%. The company did not provide revenue figures, leaving investors uncertain about overall performance. The lack of guidance and commentary from management may add to investor concerns moving forward.

Company Snapshot

Olin Corporation is a leading manufacturer in the materials sector, specifically focusing on commodity chemicals. With a market cap of $3 billion, Olin plays a crucial role in supplying chemicals used in various industries, including agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing, making it a significant player in the global supply chain.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$-0.64

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for its products, which is critical for assessing growth.

$1.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+31.38%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Olin reported an EPS of $-0.75, missing estimates by nearly 30%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.76% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Olin to report a challenging quarter with a consensus EPS of $-0.64, indicating ongoing struggles in profitability. Revenue is anticipated to be around $1.6 billion, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

Bull Case

If Olin can beat the EPS estimate and show signs of revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in operations and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if Olin misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about its long-term viability and lead to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.64

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.6B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for its products, which is critical for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Olin's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $-0.64?

A beat on EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What is the outlook for revenue growth compared to the consensus of $1.6 billion?

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market demand and overall health, influencing future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be overly pessimistic about Olin's ability to recover, as recent operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

Olin has historically shown volatility in earnings, and a surprise could lead to significant upward movement.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a positive surprise.

Key Risk

If Olin's revenue exceeds $1.7 billion, it could challenge the current negative sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Olin can recover from previous earnings misses and show signs of growth in a challenging environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of better than $-0.60 and revenue exceeding $1.7 billion would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-0.68 and revenue below $1.5 billion would confirm a bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.39%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.4% while OLN has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

44.8%

Calls (24K)P/C Ratio: 0.19Puts (7K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 19 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 12 of 19 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.2%, with a raw directional average of +1.8% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Olin beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.82%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable but could see muted reactions as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 0.54%, reinforcing concerns about the company's profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on EPS.
2Insights into demand trends for Olin's products in key markets.
3Management's commentary on pricing power and raw material costs.
4Guidance on future revenue expectations and market conditions.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$-0.64

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for its products, which is critical for assessing growth.

$1.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

+31.38%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Olin reported an EPS of $-0.75, missing estimates by nearly 30%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.76% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Olin can beat the EPS estimate and show signs of revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in operations and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if Olin misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about its long-term viability and lead to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.64

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.6B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for its products, which is critical for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Olin's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $-0.64?

A beat on EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What is the outlook for revenue growth compared to the consensus of $1.6 billion?

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market demand and overall health, influencing future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be overly pessimistic about Olin's ability to recover, as recent operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

Olin has historically shown volatility in earnings, and a surprise could lead to significant upward movement.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a positive surprise.

Key Risk

If Olin's revenue exceeds $1.7 billion, it could challenge the current negative sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Olin can recover from previous earnings misses and show signs of growth in a challenging environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of better than $-0.60 and revenue exceeding $1.7 billion would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-0.68 and revenue below $1.5 billion would confirm a bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.39%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.4% while OLN has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

44.8%

Calls (24K)P/C Ratio: 0.19Puts (7K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 19 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Olin beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.82%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable but could see muted reactions as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 0.54%, reinforcing concerns about the company's profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on EPS.
2Insights into demand trends for Olin's products in key markets.
3Management's commentary on pricing power and raw material costs.
4Guidance on future revenue expectations and market conditions.