Equity Profile

ONB

Old National Bancorp

FinancialsRegional Banks$10.4B

Jan26Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EST

Company Snapshot

Old National Bancorp (ONB) is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including commercial and consumer banking. With a market cap of $10 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in the Midwest, and is influenced by trends in consumer spending and interest rates.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the bank is managing its expenses and generating income.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and the amount of interest paid out, which is crucial for bank profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONB Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Old National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.61, slightly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.05% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue focusing on expanding loan portfolios.
Maintain strong cost management practices.
Enhance digital banking services to attract more customers.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Old National Bancorp's upcoming earnings, especially given its recent track record of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns about rising interest rates and economic conditions may temper expectations.

Bull Case

If the bank reports strong loan growth and maintains or improves its net interest margin, it could signal robust demand and profitability, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank shows signs of declining loan demand or a shrinking net interest margin, it may raise concerns about future profitability, potentially leading to a negative stock reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How has loan growth trended in the last quarter?

Loan growth is a key indicator of demand and economic health, and it will be crucial for assessing the bank's future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Old National Bancorp's ability to manage costs effectively, which could lead to better-than-expected EPS despite economic challenges.

Supporting Evidence

The bank has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past quarters, indicating strong management performance.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, reflecting potential for positive surprises.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of the bank's future profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Old National Bancorp can sustain its recent performance amid potential economic headwinds.

Bull Confirmed If

If EPS exceeds $0.65, it would confirm strong profitability and growth.

Bear Confirmed If

If EPS falls below $0.55, it would raise concerns about the bank's ability to manage costs and generate income.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.90%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while ONB has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

23.7%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (100)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Old National Bancorp beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.39%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down as investors reassess.

Miss

If the bank misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 1.76%, reflecting disappointment in performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth trends and demand for credit.
2Details on net interest margin and how it is being affected by interest rates.
3Insights into cost management strategies and operational efficiency.
4Comments on digital banking initiatives and customer acquisition.
5Outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year and any anticipated economic challenges.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the bank is managing its expenses and generating income.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and the amount of interest paid out, which is crucial for bank profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONB Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Old National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.61, slightly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.05% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue focusing on expanding loan portfolios.
Maintain strong cost management practices.
Enhance digital banking services to attract more customers.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the bank reports strong loan growth and maintains or improves its net interest margin, it could signal robust demand and profitability, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank shows signs of declining loan demand or a shrinking net interest margin, it may raise concerns about future profitability, potentially leading to a negative stock reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How has loan growth trended in the last quarter?

Loan growth is a key indicator of demand and economic health, and it will be crucial for assessing the bank's future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Old National Bancorp's ability to manage costs effectively, which could lead to better-than-expected EPS despite economic challenges.

Supporting Evidence

The bank has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past quarters, indicating strong management performance.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, reflecting potential for positive surprises.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of the bank's future profitability.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Old National Bancorp can sustain its recent performance amid potential economic headwinds.

Bull Confirmed If

If EPS exceeds $0.65, it would confirm strong profitability and growth.

Bear Confirmed If

If EPS falls below $0.55, it would raise concerns about the bank's ability to manage costs and generate income.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.90%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while ONB has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

23.7%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (100)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Old National Bancorp beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.39%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down as investors reassess.

Miss

If the bank misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 1.76%, reflecting disappointment in performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth trends and demand for credit.
2Details on net interest margin and how it is being affected by interest rates.
3Insights into cost management strategies and operational efficiency.
4Comments on digital banking initiatives and customer acquisition.
5Outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year and any anticipated economic challenges.