Equity Profile

ONB

Old National Bancorp

FinancialsRegional Banks$10.2B

Jan26Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EST

Company Snapshot

Old National Bancorp (ONB) is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including commercial and consumer banking. With a market cap of $10 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in the Midwest, and is influenced by trends in consumer spending and interest rates.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors to gauge the bank's financial health.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and the amount of interest paid out, crucial for banks' profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONB Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Old National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.61, beating estimates slightly. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.05% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the company's history of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of specific guidance raises uncertainty.

Bull Case

If ONB continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could see a strong positive reaction, especially if loan growth is robust.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank reports lower-than-expected loan growth or net interest margin, it may lead to a negative reaction from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected growth rate in loan demand for this quarter?

Loan demand is a critical indicator of the bank's performance and overall economic health, and any significant changes could impact future earnings.

How has the net interest margin changed compared to last quarter?

Net interest margin directly affects profitability, and any decline could raise concerns about the bank's ability to manage its interest income effectively.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of rising interest rates on Old National Bancorp's net interest margin, which could lead to stronger profitability than expected.

Supporting Evidence

Historical trends show that ONB has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders expect a more volatile reaction than what has been typical in the past.

Key Risk

If loan growth comes in below 3%, it could undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on loan growth and net interest margin, which are critical for understanding the bank's profitability and market position.

Bull Confirmed If

A loan growth rate exceeding 5% would confirm a strong demand for credit and support the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A net interest margin below 3% would indicate potential profitability issues and support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.90%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while ONB has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

23.7%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (100)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ONB beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.39%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report could lead to a muted reaction, as investors weigh management's commentary against expectations.

Miss

If the bank misses on key metrics, history suggests a potential decline of around 1.76%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any specific guidance on loan growth expectations for the upcoming quarter.
2Details on how the net interest margin has been affected by recent interest rate changes.
3Insights into consumer demand and economic conditions in the Midwest.
4Management's outlook on potential risks or challenges in the banking sector.
5Updates on any strategic initiatives or investments that could impact future growth.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors to gauge the bank's financial health.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and the amount of interest paid out, crucial for banks' profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONB Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Old National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.61, beating estimates slightly. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.05% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the company's history of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of specific guidance raises uncertainty.

Bull Case

If ONB continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could see a strong positive reaction, especially if loan growth is robust.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank reports lower-than-expected loan growth or net interest margin, it may lead to a negative reaction from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected growth rate in loan demand for this quarter?

Loan demand is a critical indicator of the bank's performance and overall economic health, and any significant changes could impact future earnings.

How has the net interest margin changed compared to last quarter?

Net interest margin directly affects profitability, and any decline could raise concerns about the bank's ability to manage its interest income effectively.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of rising interest rates on Old National Bancorp's net interest margin, which could lead to stronger profitability than expected.

Supporting Evidence

Historical trends show that ONB has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders expect a more volatile reaction than what has been typical in the past.

Key Risk

If loan growth comes in below 3%, it could undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on loan growth and net interest margin, which are critical for understanding the bank's profitability and market position.

Bull Confirmed If

A loan growth rate exceeding 5% would confirm a strong demand for credit and support the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A net interest margin below 3% would indicate potential profitability issues and support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.90%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while ONB has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

23.7%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (100)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ONB beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.39%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report could lead to a muted reaction, as investors weigh management's commentary against expectations.

Miss

If the bank misses on key metrics, history suggests a potential decline of around 1.76%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any specific guidance on loan growth expectations for the upcoming quarter.
2Details on how the net interest margin has been affected by recent interest rate changes.
3Insights into consumer demand and economic conditions in the Midwest.
4Management's outlook on potential risks or challenges in the banking sector.
5Updates on any strategic initiatives or investments that could impact future growth.