Equity Profile

ONB

Old National Bancorp

FinancialsRegional Banks$9.3B

Jan26Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EST

Company Snapshot

Old National Bancorp (ONB) is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services including banking, investment, and wealth management. With a market cap of $9 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in the Midwest, where it serves both individual and commercial clients.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the bank is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, which is crucial for a bank's profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONB Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Old National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.61, slightly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.05% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue focusing on cost management to improve profitability.
Expand lending operations to drive loan growth.
Enhance customer service to retain and attract clients.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about ONB's upcoming earnings, given its consistent history of beating EPS estimates. However, there are concerns about how rising interest rates may impact net interest margins.

Bull Case

If ONB can demonstrate strong loan growth and maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could lead to significant upside in its stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank reports weaker-than-expected loan growth or a decline in net interest margin, it may trigger a negative reaction from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported loan growth percentage for Q2-2026?

Loan growth is critical for revenue generation, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How has the net interest margin changed compared to the previous quarter?

Net interest margin is a key profitability metric, and changes here could indicate how well the bank is navigating the current interest rate environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating ONB's ability to maintain strong loan growth despite rising interest rates, as historical performance shows resilience in similar conditions.

Supporting Evidence

ONB has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong management performance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting expectations may be too conservative.

Recent trends in regional banking suggest a rebound in loan demand that ONB could capitalize on.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds 5%, it could significantly challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating ONB's ability to maintain profitability in a challenging interest rate environment, making these metrics crucial.

Bull Confirmed If

Loan growth of +5% or better compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in net interest margin below 3% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.9%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while ONB has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

23.7%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (100)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ONB beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.39%, confirming investor confidence in its growth strategy.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may react modestly, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average drop of around 1.76%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on loan growth figures and specific segments driving that growth.
2Any changes in net interest margin and the factors influencing it.
3Management's outlook on the economic environment and its impact on operations.
4Details on cost management initiatives and their expected impact on profitability.
5Insights into customer acquisition strategies and retention rates.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the bank is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, which is crucial for a bank's profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONB Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Old National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.61, slightly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.05% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue focusing on cost management to improve profitability.
Expand lending operations to drive loan growth.
Enhance customer service to retain and attract clients.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If ONB can demonstrate strong loan growth and maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could lead to significant upside in its stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank reports weaker-than-expected loan growth or a decline in net interest margin, it may trigger a negative reaction from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported loan growth percentage for Q2-2026?

Loan growth is critical for revenue generation, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How has the net interest margin changed compared to the previous quarter?

Net interest margin is a key profitability metric, and changes here could indicate how well the bank is navigating the current interest rate environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating ONB's ability to maintain strong loan growth despite rising interest rates, as historical performance shows resilience in similar conditions.

Supporting Evidence

ONB has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong management performance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting expectations may be too conservative.

Recent trends in regional banking suggest a rebound in loan demand that ONB could capitalize on.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds 5%, it could significantly challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating ONB's ability to maintain profitability in a challenging interest rate environment, making these metrics crucial.

Bull Confirmed If

Loan growth of +5% or better compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in net interest margin below 3% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.9%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while ONB has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

23.7%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (100)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ONB beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.39%, confirming investor confidence in its growth strategy.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may react modestly, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average drop of around 1.76%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on loan growth figures and specific segments driving that growth.
2Any changes in net interest margin and the factors influencing it.
3Management's outlook on the economic environment and its impact on operations.
4Details on cost management initiatives and their expected impact on profitability.
5Insights into customer acquisition strategies and retention rates.