Equity Profile

ONON

On Holding AG

Consumer DiscretionaryFootwear$10.5B

May12Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market5:00 AM EDT

On Holding AG Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.0%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.48	$0.27	+65.17%
Revenue	—	$822M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

On Holding AG Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.0%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.48	$0.27	+65.17%
Revenue	—	$822M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

On Holding AG reported better-than-expected earnings per share, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. However, there was no revenue reported, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. The stock reaction remained flat, indicating that investors may be cautious in their assessment without further context from management.

Company Snapshot

On Holding AG is a footwear company in the consumer discretionary sector, known for its innovative running shoes and athletic apparel. With a market cap of $11 billion, it plays a significant role in the growing trend of health and fitness, appealing to consumers looking for performance-oriented products.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.27

Revenue

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract customers and expand its market share, which is crucial for long-term success.

$822M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+44.11%

Avg Stock Reaction

+5.26%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, On Holding reported an EPS of $0.32, significantly exceeding expectations. However, the stock dropped 6.09% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite strong earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding product lines to attract a broader customer base.
Commitment to increasing marketing efforts to boost brand awareness.
Plans to enhance online sales channels to improve customer engagement.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect On Holding to continue its trend of strong earnings, with a consensus EPS of $0.27 and revenue of $822 million. The market is closely watching for any signs of growth in sales and profitability.

Bull Case

If On Holding beats expectations, it could signal strong demand for its products and effective cost management, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses its targets, it may raise concerns about its growth strategy and market competition, leading to a negative impact on the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.27

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$822M

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract customers and expand its market share, which is crucial for long-term success.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.27?

A beat on EPS would reinforce investor confidence in the company's profitability and growth strategy.

What is the outlook for revenue growth compared to the consensus of $822 million?

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's market position and ability to compete effectively.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate On Holding's ability to leverage its brand and product innovation to drive revenue growth, especially in a competitive market.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent strong EPS surprises indicate robust demand that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Options pricing suggests a larger expected move than historical averages, indicating heightened investor interest.

Insider selling activity could signal confidence in the company's future performance despite market volatility.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $845 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether On Holding can sustain its growth trajectory amid increasing competition in the footwear industry.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.23 would raise concerns about profitability and market competitiveness.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.80%

Historical Avg

±7.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that investors expect volatility based on the results.

Options are pricing ±11.8% while ONON has averaged ±7.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.4%

30d HV

43.7%

Calls (370K)P/C Ratio: 0.62Puts (334K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 12 (42%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 5 of 12 faded and 7 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.1%, with a raw directional average of -0.9% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If On Holding beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 9.56%, confirming strong demand and effective management.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity on future growth.

Miss

If the company misses its targets, the stock could drop by about 4.37%, reflecting concerns over its growth strategy.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Insights into consumer demand trends and how they are affecting inventory levels.
3Management's commentary on competitive pressures and strategies to maintain market share.
4Details on marketing initiatives and their effectiveness in driving brand awareness.
5Any guidance on future earnings expectations and investment plans.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.27

Revenue

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract customers and expand its market share, which is crucial for long-term success.

$822M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+44.11%

Avg Stock Reaction

+5.26%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding product lines to attract a broader customer base.
Commitment to increasing marketing efforts to boost brand awareness.
Plans to enhance online sales channels to improve customer engagement.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If On Holding beats expectations, it could signal strong demand for its products and effective cost management, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses its targets, it may raise concerns about its growth strategy and market competition, leading to a negative impact on the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.27

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$822M

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract customers and expand its market share, which is crucial for long-term success.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.27?

A beat on EPS would reinforce investor confidence in the company's profitability and growth strategy.

What is the outlook for revenue growth compared to the consensus of $822 million?

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's market position and ability to compete effectively.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate On Holding's ability to leverage its brand and product innovation to drive revenue growth, especially in a competitive market.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent strong EPS surprises indicate robust demand that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Options pricing suggests a larger expected move than historical averages, indicating heightened investor interest.

Insider selling activity could signal confidence in the company's future performance despite market volatility.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $845 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether On Holding can sustain its growth trajectory amid increasing competition in the footwear industry.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.23 would raise concerns about profitability and market competitiveness.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.80%

Historical Avg

±7.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that investors expect volatility based on the results.

Options are pricing ±11.8% while ONON has averaged ±7.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.4%

30d HV

43.7%

Calls (370K)P/C Ratio: 0.62Puts (334K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 12 (42%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If On Holding beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 9.56%, confirming strong demand and effective management.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity on future growth.

Miss

If the company misses its targets, the stock could drop by about 4.37%, reflecting concerns over its growth strategy.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Insights into consumer demand trends and how they are affecting inventory levels.
3Management's commentary on competitive pressures and strategies to maintain market share.
4Details on marketing initiatives and their effectiveness in driving brand awareness.
5Any guidance on future earnings expectations and investment plans.