Equity Profile

OWL

Blue Owl Capital Inc.

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$6.6B

Apr30Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market1:00 AM EDT

Blue Owl Capital Misses on EPS, Stock Up 9.8%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.02	$0.18	-89.42%
Revenue	N/A	$693M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Blue Owl Capital Misses on EPS, Stock Up 9.8%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.02	$0.18	-89.42%
Revenue	N/A	$693M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record for this earnings call, and the analysis is based solely on the numerical results.

What It Means

Blue Owl Capital reported a significant miss on EPS, with actual earnings falling far short of expectations. Despite this, the stock rose by 9.8%, which may indicate investor optimism or a reaction to other factors not detailed in the earnings report. The lack of revenue data adds uncertainty to the overall financial picture.

Company Snapshot

Blue Owl Capital Inc. is a financial services company focused on asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

0.18

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory.

693M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Blue Owl Capital Inc. is a financial services company focused on asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a significant role in managing investments and providing financial solutions, which are crucial in today's evolving economic landscape.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-23.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.00%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Blue Owl reported an EPS of $0.24, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 3.57% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Blue Owl to report earnings of $0.18 per share on revenues of $693 million. The company has shown mixed performance in previous quarters, leading to cautious sentiment.

Bull Case

If Blue Owl exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal effective management and increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations again, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate market challenges, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.18

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

Revenue

693M

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Blue Owl's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.18?

A strong EPS performance is crucial for restoring investor confidence after previous misses.

What revenue figure will Blue Owl report, and how does it compare to the $693 million consensus?

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market position and operational effectiveness.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Blue Owl's potential for a strong recovery, given its recent EPS beat and the current market environment.

Supporting Evidence

The stock has shown resilience despite past earnings misses, indicating underlying strength.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, hinting at potential surprises.

Key Risk

If the company reports significantly higher revenue growth, it could challenge the cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a series of mixed results, and investors are looking for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings exceeding $0.18 per share and revenue surpassing $693 million would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.17 or revenue falling short of $635 million would indicate ongoing challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.3%

Historical Avg

±4.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.3% while OWL has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.2%

30d HV

43.8%

Calls (1.3M)P/C Ratio: 0.87Puts (2.4M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 6 (83%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 5 of 6 (83%) reversed within 5 days — this setup typically fades. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.2%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Blue Owl beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest uptick, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable but could still react to management's commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average drop of around 4% following earnings misses.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new investment strategies or market opportunities.
2Details on cost management efforts and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into client acquisition and retention metrics.
4Management's outlook on market conditions and potential challenges ahead.

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Company Snapshot

Blue Owl Capital Inc. is a financial services company focused on asset management and custody banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

0.18

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory.

693M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-23.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.00%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Blue Owl reported an EPS of $0.24, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 3.57% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Blue Owl to report earnings of $0.18 per share on revenues of $693 million. The company has shown mixed performance in previous quarters, leading to cautious sentiment.

Bull Case

If Blue Owl exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal effective management and increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations again, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate market challenges, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.18

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

Revenue

693M

Total revenue gives insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Blue Owl's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.18?

A strong EPS performance is crucial for restoring investor confidence after previous misses.

What revenue figure will Blue Owl report, and how does it compare to the $693 million consensus?

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market position and operational effectiveness.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Blue Owl's potential for a strong recovery, given its recent EPS beat and the current market environment.

Supporting Evidence

The stock has shown resilience despite past earnings misses, indicating underlying strength.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, hinting at potential surprises.

Key Risk

If the company reports significantly higher revenue growth, it could challenge the cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a series of mixed results, and investors are looking for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings exceeding $0.18 per share and revenue surpassing $693 million would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.17 or revenue falling short of $635 million would indicate ongoing challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.3%

Historical Avg

±4.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.3% while OWL has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.2%

30d HV

43.8%

Calls (1.3M)P/C Ratio: 0.87Puts (2.4M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 6 (83%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Blue Owl beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest uptick, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable but could still react to management's commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average drop of around 4% following earnings misses.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new investment strategies or market opportunities.
2Details on cost management efforts and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into client acquisition and retention metrics.
4Management's outlook on market conditions and potential challenges ahead.