Equity Profile

PARR

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$3.6B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely monitor this quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and operational efficiency.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $4 billion, the company plays a significant role in the energy supply chain, particularly in the U.S. market, where it is involved in refining crude oil and distributing petroleum products.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+108.82%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Par Pacific reported an EPS of $0.78, which was below the expected $1.04, leading to a negative surprise of 25.36%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.73% the following day despite the miss.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Par Pacific's upcoming earnings are mixed, given the recent earnings miss and the volatility in the energy sector. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If Par Pacific can exceed EPS expectations and show improved refining margins, it could signal a strong recovery and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or weak revenue growth, it could lead to further declines in stock price as investor sentiment worsens.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous estimates?

Given the recent earnings miss, the market will closely scrutinize EPS to gauge the company's recovery and profitability.

How have refining margins changed this quarter?

Refining margins are critical for understanding the company's cost management and overall profitability in a fluctuating oil market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the potential for Par Pacific to recover its refining margins, which could lead to a stronger-than-expected EPS this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical performance shows a tendency to rebound after earnings misses.

Options pricing indicates a high expected move, suggesting that the market is bracing for significant news.

Recent trends in oil prices could favor improved refining margins, contrary to current bearish sentiment.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis this quarter revolves around the company's ability to recover from recent earnings misses and improve its refining margins amidst volatile oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.10 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.91%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect high volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±25.9% while PARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

62.9%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (2K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Par Pacific beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a rebound in profitability.

In-Line / Cautious

If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience limited movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential decline in stock price, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and cost management strategies.
2Details on how recent oil price fluctuations have impacted operations.
3Management's outlook on future demand for refined products.
4Any commentary on strategic initiatives or investments in the refining sector.
5Insights into market conditions and competitive positioning.

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Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely monitor this quarter.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and operational efficiency.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+108.82%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.36%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Par Pacific can exceed EPS expectations and show improved refining margins, it could signal a strong recovery and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or weak revenue growth, it could lead to further declines in stock price as investor sentiment worsens.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous estimates?

Given the recent earnings miss, the market will closely scrutinize EPS to gauge the company's recovery and profitability.

How have refining margins changed this quarter?

Refining margins are critical for understanding the company's cost management and overall profitability in a fluctuating oil market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the potential for Par Pacific to recover its refining margins, which could lead to a stronger-than-expected EPS this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical performance shows a tendency to rebound after earnings misses.

Options pricing indicates a high expected move, suggesting that the market is bracing for significant news.

Recent trends in oil prices could favor improved refining margins, contrary to current bearish sentiment.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis this quarter revolves around the company's ability to recover from recent earnings misses and improve its refining margins amidst volatile oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.10 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.91%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect high volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±25.9% while PARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

62.9%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (2K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Par Pacific beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a rebound in profitability.

In-Line / Cautious

If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience limited movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential decline in stock price, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and cost management strategies.
2Details on how recent oil price fluctuations have impacted operations.
3Management's outlook on future demand for refined products.
4Any commentary on strategic initiatives or investments in the refining sector.
5Insights into market conditions and competitive positioning.