Equity Profile

PARR

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$4.1B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$8.15

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Par Pacific's products.

$2.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $4 billion, the company plays a vital role in energy supply and pricing, especially as global demand for oil continues to fluctuate.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+108.82%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Par Pacific reported an EPS of $0.78, falling short of the expected $1.04, which led to a stock increase of 2.73% the following day. This was a significant miss, raising concerns about operational efficiency.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to improving operational efficiencies.
They indicated plans to enhance refining capacity.
Focus on cost management was emphasized.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Par Pacific's upcoming earnings, expecting a rebound in EPS and revenue after a disappointing last quarter. The consensus estimates suggest a strong recovery in profitability.

Bull Case

If Par Pacific can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a robust recovery and improved market positioning.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet EPS and revenue estimates again, it could raise serious doubts about its operational strategy and market demand.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$8.15

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$2.4B

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Par Pacific's products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Par Pacific's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $8.15?

A beat on EPS would indicate improved profitability and operational efficiency, which is critical for investor confidence.

What revenue figures will Par Pacific report, and how do they compare to the expected $2.4 billion?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing market demand and the effectiveness of the company's sales strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of recent operational improvements and cost management initiatives that could boost profitability beyond current estimates.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising analysts with better-than-expected results, as seen in previous quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility that may not align with consensus forecasts.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in significantly above $2.4 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be critical in determining whether Par Pacific can stabilize its earnings after recent volatility.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $8.40 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $7.72 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.91%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±25.9% while PARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

62.9%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (2K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Par Pacific beats estimates, history suggests a modest stock increase of around 1.05%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in management's commentary.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop of about 1.26%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
2Any commentary on refining capacity and market demand.
3Insights into pricing strategies for oil and gas products.
4Management's outlook on the energy market for the next quarter.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent performance trends.

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Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$8.15

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Par Pacific's products.

$2.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+108.82%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.36%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to improving operational efficiencies.
They indicated plans to enhance refining capacity.
Focus on cost management was emphasized.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Par Pacific can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a robust recovery and improved market positioning.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet EPS and revenue estimates again, it could raise serious doubts about its operational strategy and market demand.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$8.15

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$2.4B

Revenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Par Pacific's products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Par Pacific's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $8.15?

A beat on EPS would indicate improved profitability and operational efficiency, which is critical for investor confidence.

What revenue figures will Par Pacific report, and how do they compare to the expected $2.4 billion?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing market demand and the effectiveness of the company's sales strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of recent operational improvements and cost management initiatives that could boost profitability beyond current estimates.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising analysts with better-than-expected results, as seen in previous quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility that may not align with consensus forecasts.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in significantly above $2.4 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be critical in determining whether Par Pacific can stabilize its earnings after recent volatility.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $8.40 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $7.72 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.91%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±25.9% while PARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

62.9%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (2K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Par Pacific beats estimates, history suggests a modest stock increase of around 1.05%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in management's commentary.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop of about 1.26%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
2Any commentary on refining capacity and market demand.
3Insights into pricing strategies for oil and gas products.
4Management's outlook on the energy market for the next quarter.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent performance trends.