Equity Profile

PBR

PetrÃ³leo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$114.4B

May11Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major Brazilian energy company involved in the exploration, production, and distribution of oil and gas....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue

Revenue is crucial as it reflects the company's ability to generate sales from its oil and gas operations.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors for insights into the company's financial health.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major Brazilian energy company involved in the exploration, production, and distribution of oil and gas. As a key player in the integrated oil and gas sector, its performance is closely tied to global energy prices and Brazil's economic health.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Petrobras reported an unexpected EPS loss, surprising analysts who anticipated a larger loss. The stock reacted negatively, reflecting investor concerns about operational challenges.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, with expectations tempered by previous performance and market conditions. The lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to the outlook.

Bull Case

If Petrobras can show improved production levels and better-than-expected revenue, it may signal a recovery in operational efficiency and profitability, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports continued losses or lower production, it could reinforce concerns about its financial stability and lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported production levels for this quarter?

Production levels are critical for assessing operational performance and can significantly impact revenue and profitability.

How does management plan to address recent operational challenges?

Management's strategy for overcoming challenges will be closely scrutinized, as it can influence future performance and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a production rebound, given recent investments in operational efficiency.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing in an 8.87% move, suggesting traders expect significant volatility, which may not materialize if production stabilizes.

Insider buying activity, albeit small, indicates some confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If production levels rise significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a reassessment of the company's outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on production efficiency and management's ability to navigate market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Production levels exceeding 2.5 million barrels per day would indicate strong operational recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

Production levels falling below 2 million barrels per day would confirm ongoing operational struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.87%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.7%

Calls (21.4M)P/C Ratio: 0.62Puts (955K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$9,490.00

1,000 sh

1 insider

Sold

$172.71

19 sh

1 insider

Net

$9,317.29

Net buying

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Chief Commercial OfficerLaureano Angelica Garcia Cobas
$9,317.29

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction of around 1.82%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.72%, reinforcing bearish sentiment around the company's operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiency improvements.
2Management's commentary on market conditions and pricing strategies.
3Insights into cost management and capital expenditures.
4Future guidance on revenue expectations and strategic initiatives.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent operational challenges.

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Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major Brazilian energy company involved in the exploration, production, and distribution of oil and gas....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue

Revenue is crucial as it reflects the company's ability to generate sales from its oil and gas operations.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors for insights into the company's financial health.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, with expectations tempered by previous performance and market conditions. The lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to the outlook.

Bull Case

If Petrobras can show improved production levels and better-than-expected revenue, it may signal a recovery in operational efficiency and profitability, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports continued losses or lower production, it could reinforce concerns about its financial stability and lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported production levels for this quarter?

Production levels are critical for assessing operational performance and can significantly impact revenue and profitability.

How does management plan to address recent operational challenges?

Management's strategy for overcoming challenges will be closely scrutinized, as it can influence future performance and investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a production rebound, given recent investments in operational efficiency.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing in an 8.87% move, suggesting traders expect significant volatility, which may not materialize if production stabilizes.

Insider buying activity, albeit small, indicates some confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If production levels rise significantly, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a reassessment of the company's outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on production efficiency and management's ability to navigate market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Production levels exceeding 2.5 million barrels per day would indicate strong operational recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

Production levels falling below 2 million barrels per day would confirm ongoing operational struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.87%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.7%

Calls (21.4M)P/C Ratio: 0.62Puts (955K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$9,490.00

1,000 sh

1 insider

Sold

$172.71

19 sh

1 insider

Net

$9,317.29

Net buying

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Chief Commercial OfficerLaureano Angelica Garcia Cobas
$9,317.29

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction of around 1.82%, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.72%, reinforcing bearish sentiment around the company's operational challenges.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiency improvements.
2Management's commentary on market conditions and pricing strategies.
3Insights into cost management and capital expenditures.
4Future guidance on revenue expectations and strategic initiatives.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent operational challenges.