Equity Profile

PBR

PetrÃ³leo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$115.7B

May11Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major integrated oil and gas company based in Brazil....

Key Metrics to Watch

Crude Oil Production

This metric indicates the company's ability to generate revenue from its core operations, especially in a volatile oil market.

2.5 million barrels per day

Refining Capacity Utilization

Higher utilization rates can lead to increased profit margins and better operational efficiency.

85%

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major integrated oil and gas company based in Brazil. It plays a crucial role in the energy sector, focusing on exploration, production, refining, and distribution of oil and gas, which are vital for both domestic and global energy needs.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Petrobras reported a narrower-than-expected loss, driven by higher oil prices and improved operational efficiencies. However, concerns about debt levels and production challenges lingered.

Management Promises & Guidance

Commitment to reduce debt by 10% over the next year.
Plans to increase production by 5% in the upcoming quarter.
Focus on enhancing refining margins through operational improvements.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Petrobras's upcoming earnings, expecting improved production and refining metrics. However, uncertainties around global oil prices and domestic economic conditions could weigh on performance.

Bull Case

If oil prices remain strong and production targets are met, Petrobras could see significant revenue growth, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Should the company report lower production or higher debt levels than expected, it could trigger a negative response from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

Crude Oil Production

2.5 million barrels per day

This metric indicates the company's ability to generate revenue from its core operations, especially in a volatile oil market.

Refining Capacity Utilization

85%

Higher utilization rates can lead to increased profit margins and better operational efficiency.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

0.6

This ratio is important to assess the company's financial health and leverage, especially in the current economic climate.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the crude oil production level reported this quarter?

Production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a key indicator for investors.

How will the company address its debt levels in the upcoming quarter?

Investors are concerned about financial stability, and clear plans for debt management will be crucial for confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of rising global oil prices on Petrobras's revenue, especially if production targets are exceeded.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing an 8.87% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's commitment to reducing debt could improve investor sentiment, contrary to concerns about financial health.

Key Risk

If crude oil production comes in below 2.5 million barrels per day, it could shift the narrative negatively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is focused on production efficiency and financial health, which are critical for Petrobras's performance amid fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving crude oil production of 2.5 million barrels per day or higher would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Reporting a debt-to-equity ratio above 0.6 would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.87%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.7%

Calls (21.4M)P/C Ratio: 0.62Puts (955K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.8%, confirming positive sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 2.7%, as investors react negatively to disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on crude oil production levels and any changes to guidance.
2Details on debt management strategies and financial health.
3Insights into refining margins and operational efficiencies.
4Any commentary on global oil price trends and their impact on the business.
5Management's outlook on future production and market conditions.

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Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major integrated oil and gas company based in Brazil....

Key Metrics to Watch

Crude Oil Production

This metric indicates the company's ability to generate revenue from its core operations, especially in a volatile oil market.

2.5 million barrels per day

Refining Capacity Utilization

Higher utilization rates can lead to increased profit margins and better operational efficiency.

85%

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Commitment to reduce debt by 10% over the next year.
Plans to increase production by 5% in the upcoming quarter.
Focus on enhancing refining margins through operational improvements.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If oil prices remain strong and production targets are met, Petrobras could see significant revenue growth, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Should the company report lower production or higher debt levels than expected, it could trigger a negative response from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

Crude Oil Production

2.5 million barrels per day

This metric indicates the company's ability to generate revenue from its core operations, especially in a volatile oil market.

Refining Capacity Utilization

85%

Higher utilization rates can lead to increased profit margins and better operational efficiency.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

0.6

This ratio is important to assess the company's financial health and leverage, especially in the current economic climate.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the crude oil production level reported this quarter?

Production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a key indicator for investors.

How will the company address its debt levels in the upcoming quarter?

Investors are concerned about financial stability, and clear plans for debt management will be crucial for confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of rising global oil prices on Petrobras's revenue, especially if production targets are exceeded.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing an 8.87% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's commitment to reducing debt could improve investor sentiment, contrary to concerns about financial health.

Key Risk

If crude oil production comes in below 2.5 million barrels per day, it could shift the narrative negatively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is focused on production efficiency and financial health, which are critical for Petrobras's performance amid fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving crude oil production of 2.5 million barrels per day or higher would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Reporting a debt-to-equity ratio above 0.6 would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.87%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.7%

Calls (21.4M)P/C Ratio: 0.62Puts (955K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.8%, confirming positive sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 2.7%, as investors react negatively to disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on crude oil production levels and any changes to guidance.
2Details on debt management strategies and financial health.
3Insights into refining margins and operational efficiencies.
4Any commentary on global oil price trends and their impact on the business.
5Management's outlook on future production and market conditions.