Equity Profile

PBR

PetrÃ³leo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$115.2B

May11Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major integrated oil and gas company based in Brazil, involved in exploration, production, refining, and distribution of oil and gas....

Key Metrics to Watch

Crude Oil Production

This metric is crucial as it directly impacts revenue and profitability, especially with fluctuating oil prices.

2.7 million barrels per day

Refining Capacity Utilization

Higher utilization rates can indicate strong demand and operational efficiency, affecting margins.

85%

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major integrated oil and gas company based in Brazil, involved in exploration, production, refining, and distribution of oil and gas. As a key player in the energy sector, its performance is closely tied to global oil prices and Brazil's economic health.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Petrobras reported a significant earnings surprise, driven by higher oil prices and improved operational efficiency. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to maintaining production levels despite market fluctuations.
They emphasized cost-cutting measures to enhance profitability.
Plans to increase investments in renewable energy were highlighted.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect Petrobras to report solid earnings driven by higher oil prices and operational improvements. However, there are concerns about potential volatility in oil prices and geopolitical risks.

Bull Case

If oil prices remain strong and production targets are met, Petrobras could see significant revenue growth, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if oil prices decline or production falls short of expectations, the stock could face downward pressure.

Key Metrics to Watch

Crude Oil Production

2.7 million barrels per day

This metric is crucial as it directly impacts revenue and profitability, especially with fluctuating oil prices.

Refining Capacity Utilization

85%

Higher utilization rates can indicate strong demand and operational efficiency, affecting margins.

Net Income

$2.5 billion

Net income reflects overall profitability and is a key indicator of financial health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported crude oil production levels?

Production levels are critical for revenue generation, and any shortfall could negatively impact investor sentiment.

How does management plan to address cost pressures?

With rising operational costs, effective cost management strategies will be key to maintaining profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of rising global oil demand, which could lead to better-than-expected production figures.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing an 8.87% move, indicating that the market expects significant volatility.

Historical data shows that production surprises have led to larger stock movements than currently anticipated.

Key Risk

If crude oil production exceeds 2.7 million barrels per day, it could significantly alter market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The debate centers around production capabilities and cost management in a volatile oil market.

Bull Confirmed If

Crude oil production exceeding 2.7 million barrels per day would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Production levels falling below 2.5 million barrels per day would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.87%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.7%

Calls (21.4M)P/C Ratio: 0.62Puts (955K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

History suggests that a strong earnings beat could lead to a positive market reaction, potentially resulting in a 1.78% increase in stock price.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see muted movement.

Miss

Should the earnings miss expectations, the stock could decline by approximately 2.72% based on historical patterns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on crude oil production levels and any changes to guidance.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into the company's renewable energy investments and future plans.
4Comments on geopolitical factors affecting oil prices.
5Any changes in dividend policy or capital allocation plans.

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Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major integrated oil and gas company based in Brazil, involved in exploration, production, refining, and distribution of oil and gas....

Key Metrics to Watch

Crude Oil Production

This metric is crucial as it directly impacts revenue and profitability, especially with fluctuating oil prices.

2.7 million barrels per day

Refining Capacity Utilization

Higher utilization rates can indicate strong demand and operational efficiency, affecting margins.

85%

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to maintaining production levels despite market fluctuations.
They emphasized cost-cutting measures to enhance profitability.
Plans to increase investments in renewable energy were highlighted.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If oil prices remain strong and production targets are met, Petrobras could see significant revenue growth, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if oil prices decline or production falls short of expectations, the stock could face downward pressure.

Key Metrics to Watch

Crude Oil Production

2.7 million barrels per day

This metric is crucial as it directly impacts revenue and profitability, especially with fluctuating oil prices.

Refining Capacity Utilization

85%

Higher utilization rates can indicate strong demand and operational efficiency, affecting margins.

Net Income

$2.5 billion

Net income reflects overall profitability and is a key indicator of financial health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported crude oil production levels?

Production levels are critical for revenue generation, and any shortfall could negatively impact investor sentiment.

How does management plan to address cost pressures?

With rising operational costs, effective cost management strategies will be key to maintaining profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of rising global oil demand, which could lead to better-than-expected production figures.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing an 8.87% move, indicating that the market expects significant volatility.

Historical data shows that production surprises have led to larger stock movements than currently anticipated.

Key Risk

If crude oil production exceeds 2.7 million barrels per day, it could significantly alter market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The debate centers around production capabilities and cost management in a volatile oil market.

Bull Confirmed If

Crude oil production exceeding 2.7 million barrels per day would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Production levels falling below 2.5 million barrels per day would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.87%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.7%

Calls (21.4M)P/C Ratio: 0.62Puts (955K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

History suggests that a strong earnings beat could lead to a positive market reaction, potentially resulting in a 1.78% increase in stock price.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see muted movement.

Miss

Should the earnings miss expectations, the stock could decline by approximately 2.72% based on historical patterns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on crude oil production levels and any changes to guidance.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into the company's renewable energy investments and future plans.
4Comments on geopolitical factors affecting oil prices.
5Any changes in dividend policy or capital allocation plans.