Equity Profile

PBR

PetrÃ³leo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$114.4B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2020After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Petrobras managed its costs and revenues in the quarter.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance, especially in a volatile energy market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q3-2020 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining. As a state-controlled company in Brazil, its performance is closely tied to global oil prices and domestic energy policies, making it a significant entity in the integrated oil and gas industry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2-2020, Petrobras reported an EPS of -$0.06, significantly beating expectations of -$0.31, which surprised investors positively. However, the stock dropped 2.05% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Petrobras are mixed as the company navigates a challenging energy market. Investors are keenly watching for signs of recovery in oil prices and operational efficiency.

Bull Case

If Petrobras can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved production levels, it may signal a robust recovery, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing production figures or continued losses, it could raise concerns about its long-term viability and lead to further stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the specific oil production levels for Q3-2020?

Production levels will be a key indicator of the company's operational health and its ability to capitalize on any recovery in oil prices.

What is the outlook for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?

Revenue growth will be crucial for assessing the company's recovery trajectory and its ability to manage costs effectively.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Petrobras's ability to rebound from previous losses, especially if oil prices stabilize or increase.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 15.67% move, indicating expectations of significant volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's recent EPS surprise of +80.65% suggests potential for continued operational improvements.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed 2.5 million barrels per day, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Petrobras's ability to maintain or increase production in a fluctuating oil market.

Bull Confirmed If

Production levels exceeding 2.5 million barrels per day would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Production levels dropping below 2 million barrels per day would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.67%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.7%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.76Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$9,490.00

1,000 sh

1 insider

Sold

$172.71

19 sh

1 insider

Net

$9,317.29

Net buying

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Chief Commercial OfficerLaureano Angelica Garcia Cobas
$9,317.29

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of -1.78%, indicating a cautious market response despite positive results.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty in the market about future performance.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests an average one-day move of -2.72%, which could lead to a significant decline in stock price.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on oil production levels and any changes in operational strategy.
2Insights into revenue growth expectations for the next quarter.
3Management's commentary on cost management and efficiency improvements.
4Updates on the impact of global oil prices on Petrobras's performance.
5Any guidance on future capital expenditures and investment plans.

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Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Petrobras managed its costs and revenues in the quarter.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance, especially in a volatile energy market.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q3-2020 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Petrobras are mixed as the company navigates a challenging energy market. Investors are keenly watching for signs of recovery in oil prices and operational efficiency.

Bull Case

If Petrobras can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved production levels, it may signal a robust recovery, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing production figures or continued losses, it could raise concerns about its long-term viability and lead to further stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the specific oil production levels for Q3-2020?

Production levels will be a key indicator of the company's operational health and its ability to capitalize on any recovery in oil prices.

What is the outlook for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?

Revenue growth will be crucial for assessing the company's recovery trajectory and its ability to manage costs effectively.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Petrobras's ability to rebound from previous losses, especially if oil prices stabilize or increase.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 15.67% move, indicating expectations of significant volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's recent EPS surprise of +80.65% suggests potential for continued operational improvements.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed 2.5 million barrels per day, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Petrobras's ability to maintain or increase production in a fluctuating oil market.

Bull Confirmed If

Production levels exceeding 2.5 million barrels per day would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Production levels dropping below 2 million barrels per day would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.67%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.7%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.76Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$9,490.00

1,000 sh

1 insider

Sold

$172.71

19 sh

1 insider

Net

$9,317.29

Net buying

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Chief Commercial OfficerLaureano Angelica Garcia Cobas
$9,317.29

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of -1.78%, indicating a cautious market response despite positive results.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty in the market about future performance.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests an average one-day move of -2.72%, which could lead to a significant decline in stock price.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on oil production levels and any changes in operational strategy.
2Insights into revenue growth expectations for the next quarter.
3Management's commentary on cost management and efficiency improvements.
4Updates on the impact of global oil prices on Petrobras's performance.
5Any guidance on future capital expenditures and investment plans.