Equity Profile

PBR

PetrÃ³leo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$115.7B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2020After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue

Revenue performance will indicate how well Petrobras is navigating the volatile energy market.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q3-2020 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining. As a state-controlled company in Brazil, its performance is closely tied to global oil prices and domestic energy policies, making it a significant entity in the integrated oil and gas industry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2-2020, Petrobras reported an EPS of -$0.06, surprising analysts positively as they expected a larger loss. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.05% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are uncertain about Petrobras's upcoming earnings, especially given the lack of guidance and estimates. The market is likely weighing the impact of fluctuating oil prices and production levels.

Bull Case

If Petrobras can show strong revenue growth and improved EPS, it could signal a recovery in profitability and operational efficiency, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger-than-expected loss or lower production levels, it may raise concerns about its ability to manage costs and navigate market challenges.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS this quarter?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How have oil production levels changed compared to previous quarters?

Production levels directly affect revenue and profitability, making this a key area of focus for investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent oil price recoveries on Petrobras's profitability, as the company has historically shown resilience during market fluctuations.

Supporting Evidence

Despite a recent EPS loss, the company has a track record of bouncing back quickly when oil prices stabilize.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations that may not align with the company's fundamentals.

Key Risk

If oil prices stabilize above $70 per barrel, it could significantly enhance Petrobras's revenue outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on how well Petrobras can manage costs and production in a volatile oil market.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS of $0.10 or better would confirm the bull case, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $0.10 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.45%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.7%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.76Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.6% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, potentially moving up around 1.8% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as the market digests the details.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 2.7% on the first day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on oil production levels and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into how global oil prices are impacting the company's operations.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and production targets.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes in Brazil that could affect operations.

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Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue

Revenue performance will indicate how well Petrobras is navigating the volatile energy market.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q3-2020 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2-2020, Petrobras reported an EPS of -$0.06, surprising analysts positively as they expected a larger loss. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.05% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Petrobras can show strong revenue growth and improved EPS, it could signal a recovery in profitability and operational efficiency, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger-than-expected loss or lower production levels, it may raise concerns about its ability to manage costs and navigate market challenges.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS this quarter?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How have oil production levels changed compared to previous quarters?

Production levels directly affect revenue and profitability, making this a key area of focus for investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent oil price recoveries on Petrobras's profitability, as the company has historically shown resilience during market fluctuations.

Supporting Evidence

Despite a recent EPS loss, the company has a track record of bouncing back quickly when oil prices stabilize.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations that may not align with the company's fundamentals.

Key Risk

If oil prices stabilize above $70 per barrel, it could significantly enhance Petrobras's revenue outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on how well Petrobras can manage costs and production in a volatile oil market.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS of $0.10 or better would confirm the bull case, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $0.10 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.45%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.7%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.76Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, potentially moving up around 1.8% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as the market digests the details.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 2.7% on the first day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on oil production levels and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into how global oil prices are impacting the company's operations.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and production targets.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes in Brazil that could affect operations.