Equity Profile

PBR

PetrÃ³leo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$115.2B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2020After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue

Revenue is crucial this quarter as it reflects the company's ability to capitalize on oil price fluctuations and operational efficiency.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will be closely watched to gauge financial health and market sentiment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q3-2020 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining. As a state-controlled company in Brazil, its performance is closely tied to global oil prices and domestic energy policies, making it a significant entity in the integrated oil and gas industry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2020, Petrobras reported an EPS of -$0.06, significantly beating expectations of -$0.31. However, the stock fell 2.05% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Petrobras are mixed, with uncertainty surrounding oil prices and production levels. Investors will be keen to see if the company can maintain profitability amid fluctuating market conditions.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on rising oil prices and improved production efficiency, which could lead to stronger revenue and a positive EPS surprise.

Bear Case

Conversely, if oil prices decline or production issues arise, the company may face significant challenges, leading to disappointing earnings and a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the current oil production levels and how do they compare to previous quarters?

Production levels will directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a critical focus for investors.

How does management view the outlook for oil prices in the coming months?

Management's perspective on oil prices will influence market sentiment and expectations for future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Petrobras's ability to manage production levels effectively in a recovering oil market, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 6.45% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's recent production adjustments suggest a proactive approach to capitalizing on market conditions.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the market's current cautious stance.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on oil prices and production efficiency, which are critical for Petrobras's profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant increase in oil production levels alongside a positive EPS surprise would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in production levels or a negative EPS report would validate the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.45%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.7%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.76Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.82% on the day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A disappointing earnings report could lead to a decline of approximately 2.72%, reflecting market disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on oil production levels and how they compare to previous forecasts.
2Management's outlook on oil prices and market conditions for the upcoming quarter.
3Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
4Insights into any regulatory changes in Brazil that could affect operations.
5Comments on global demand trends for oil and gas.

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Company Snapshot

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is a major player in the energy sector, primarily involved in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining....

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue

Revenue is crucial this quarter as it reflects the company's ability to capitalize on oil price fluctuations and operational efficiency.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will be closely watched to gauge financial health and market sentiment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PBR Q3-2020 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2020, Petrobras reported an EPS of -$0.06, significantly beating expectations of -$0.31. However, the stock fell 2.05% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on rising oil prices and improved production efficiency, which could lead to stronger revenue and a positive EPS surprise.

Bear Case

Conversely, if oil prices decline or production issues arise, the company may face significant challenges, leading to disappointing earnings and a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the current oil production levels and how do they compare to previous quarters?

Production levels will directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a critical focus for investors.

How does management view the outlook for oil prices in the coming months?

Management's perspective on oil prices will influence market sentiment and expectations for future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Petrobras's ability to manage production levels effectively in a recovering oil market, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 6.45% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's recent production adjustments suggest a proactive approach to capitalizing on market conditions.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the market's current cautious stance.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on oil prices and production efficiency, which are critical for Petrobras's profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant increase in oil production levels alongside a positive EPS surprise would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in production levels or a negative EPS report would validate the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.45%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while PBR has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

33.7%

Calls (1.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.76Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

23.41%

of float

Insider

0.04%

of float

Holders

682

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

GQG Partners LLC
136,003,212 sh · $2.8B
3.65%
-35.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Petrobras beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.82% on the day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A disappointing earnings report could lead to a decline of approximately 2.72%, reflecting market disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on oil production levels and how they compare to previous forecasts.
2Management's outlook on oil prices and market conditions for the upcoming quarter.
3Details on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
4Insights into any regulatory changes in Brazil that could affect operations.
5Comments on global demand trends for oil and gas.