Equity Profile

QSR

Restaurant Brands International Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryRestaurants$26.7B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) operates well-known fast-food brands like Burger King and Tim Hortons....

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric indicates how existing locations are performing and reflects consumer demand.

3.5%

Operating Margin

A key indicator of profitability, it shows how efficiently the company is managing its costs.

38%

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

QSR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) operates well-known fast-food brands like Burger King and Tim Hortons. With a market cap of $27 billion, it plays a significant role in the consumer discretionary sector, which is sensitive to changes in consumer spending habits.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+0.82%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.25%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, QSR reported an EPS of $0.86, beating estimates by 4.37%. However, the stock fell 5.47% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving menu offerings and customer experience.
Commitment to expanding digital ordering capabilities.
Plans to open new locations in key markets.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect QSR to continue its trend of modest growth, but there are concerns about rising costs and competition in the fast-food sector.

Bull Case

If same-store sales growth exceeds expectations, it could indicate strong consumer demand and effective marketing strategies.

Bear Case

Conversely, if costs rise significantly or new openings underperform, it could lead to disappointing earnings and a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

3.5%

This metric indicates how existing locations are performing and reflects consumer demand.

Operating Margin

38%

A key indicator of profitability, it shows how efficiently the company is managing its costs.

Net New Restaurant Openings

150 locations

This reflects the company's growth strategy and expansion in new markets.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the same-store sales growth for Q2 2026?

This figure will be critical in assessing consumer demand and the effectiveness of marketing strategies.

How are rising costs impacting operating margins?

Understanding cost pressures will help gauge the company's profitability and future pricing strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of new menu offerings and digital enhancements on same-store sales growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in consumer spending indicate a shift towards fast-casual dining, which could benefit QSR.

The company has been investing heavily in technology to improve customer experience, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth exceeds 4%, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the balance between growth potential and rising costs, making these metrics crucial for future performance.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of 4% or higher would confirm strong consumer demand.

Bear Confirmed If

Operating margins falling below 36% would indicate significant cost pressures.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.8%

Historical Avg

±3.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 3.8%, suggesting investors anticipate some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.8% while QSR has averaged ±3.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

26.3%

Calls (53K)P/C Ratio: 1.13Puts (7K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If QSR beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +1.94% the next day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may remain volatile as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around -2.77%, reflecting market disappointment and concerns over future growth.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on same-store sales growth and how it compares to previous quarters.
2Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Updates on new menu items and customer feedback.
4Discussion on digital ordering growth and its effect on sales.
5Any commentary on expansion plans and new market entries.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) operates well-known fast-food brands like Burger King and Tim Hortons....

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric indicates how existing locations are performing and reflects consumer demand.

3.5%

Operating Margin

A key indicator of profitability, it shows how efficiently the company is managing its costs.

38%

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

QSR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+0.82%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.25%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, QSR reported an EPS of $0.86, beating estimates by 4.37%. However, the stock fell 5.47% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving menu offerings and customer experience.
Commitment to expanding digital ordering capabilities.
Plans to open new locations in key markets.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect QSR to continue its trend of modest growth, but there are concerns about rising costs and competition in the fast-food sector.

Bull Case

If same-store sales growth exceeds expectations, it could indicate strong consumer demand and effective marketing strategies.

Bear Case

Conversely, if costs rise significantly or new openings underperform, it could lead to disappointing earnings and a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

3.5%

This metric indicates how existing locations are performing and reflects consumer demand.

Operating Margin

38%

A key indicator of profitability, it shows how efficiently the company is managing its costs.

Net New Restaurant Openings

150 locations

This reflects the company's growth strategy and expansion in new markets.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the same-store sales growth for Q2 2026?

This figure will be critical in assessing consumer demand and the effectiveness of marketing strategies.

How are rising costs impacting operating margins?

Understanding cost pressures will help gauge the company's profitability and future pricing strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of new menu offerings and digital enhancements on same-store sales growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in consumer spending indicate a shift towards fast-casual dining, which could benefit QSR.

The company has been investing heavily in technology to improve customer experience, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth exceeds 4%, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the balance between growth potential and rising costs, making these metrics crucial for future performance.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of 4% or higher would confirm strong consumer demand.

Bear Confirmed If

Operating margins falling below 36% would indicate significant cost pressures.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.8%

Historical Avg

±3.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 3.8%, suggesting investors anticipate some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.8% while QSR has averaged ±3.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

26.3%

Calls (53K)P/C Ratio: 1.13Puts (7K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If QSR beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +1.94% the next day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may remain volatile as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around -2.77%, reflecting market disappointment and concerns over future growth.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on same-store sales growth and how it compares to previous quarters.
2Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Updates on new menu items and customer feedback.
4Discussion on digital ordering growth and its effect on sales.
5Any commentary on expansion plans and new market entries.