Equity Profile

RARE

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

Health CareBiotechnology$2.3B

May5Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:01 PM EDT

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.81%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-1.84	$-1.46	-18.94%
Revenue	—	$159M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.81%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-1.84	$-1.46	-18.94%
Revenue	—	$159M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Ultragenyx's earnings report showed a larger-than-expected loss per share, which may raise concerns among investors. However, the stock still managed to rise by 0.81%, suggesting that investors may be looking beyond the EPS miss or reacting to other factors. Without revenue figures or management commentary, the market's response may reflect broader market trends or investor sentiment.

Company Snapshot

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for rare genetic diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs this quarter.

$-1.46

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$159M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for rare genetic diseases. With a market cap of $2 billion, it plays a crucial role in the healthcare sector by addressing unmet medical needs through its specialized treatments.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.93%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Ultragenyx reported an EPS of $-1.29, which was worse than analysts' expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.59% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Ultragenyx to report a loss again this quarter, but revenue growth could indicate improving demand for its products.

Bull Case

If the company can beat EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in its financial performance, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses on both EPS and revenue, it may raise concerns about its growth prospects and lead to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-1.46

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs this quarter.

Revenue

$159M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ultragenyx report an EPS better than the consensus of $-1.46?

A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What is the revenue figure relative to the consensus of $159M?

Revenue performance will be a key indicator of market demand for Ultragenyx's products and its overall growth trajectory.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for revenue growth, as recent product launches could drive higher sales than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 9.41% move, suggesting expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Ultragenyx has previously shown the ability to surprise on the upside, as seen in Q2 2025.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in above $175M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it could set the tone for future growth and investor sentiment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $-1.30 or better, coupled with revenue exceeding $175M, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-2.00 and revenue below $129M would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.41%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while RARE has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

52.2%

Calls (12K)P/C Ratio: 0.14Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 19 (32%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 19 (68%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.5%, with a raw directional average of +3.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultragenyx beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.63%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on both EPS and revenue could lead to a decline of about 2.89%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on product sales growth and market demand.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
3Insights into the pipeline of new therapies and their expected timelines.
4Any changes in guidance for future quarters.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive pressures.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for rare genetic diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs this quarter.

$-1.46

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$159M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.93%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Ultragenyx reported an EPS of $-1.29, which was worse than analysts' expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.59% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Ultragenyx to report a loss again this quarter, but revenue growth could indicate improving demand for its products.

Bull Case

If the company can beat EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in its financial performance, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses on both EPS and revenue, it may raise concerns about its growth prospects and lead to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-1.46

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs this quarter.

Revenue

$159M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ultragenyx report an EPS better than the consensus of $-1.46?

A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What is the revenue figure relative to the consensus of $159M?

Revenue performance will be a key indicator of market demand for Ultragenyx's products and its overall growth trajectory.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for revenue growth, as recent product launches could drive higher sales than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 9.41% move, suggesting expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Ultragenyx has previously shown the ability to surprise on the upside, as seen in Q2 2025.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in above $175M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it could set the tone for future growth and investor sentiment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $-1.30 or better, coupled with revenue exceeding $175M, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-2.00 and revenue below $129M would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.41%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while RARE has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

52.2%

Calls (12K)P/C Ratio: 0.14Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 19 (32%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultragenyx beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.63%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on both EPS and revenue could lead to a decline of about 2.89%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on product sales growth and market demand.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
3Insights into the pipeline of new therapies and their expected timelines.
4Any changes in guidance for future quarters.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive pressures.