Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for rare genetic diseases. With a market cap of $2 billion, it plays a crucial role in the healthcare sector by addressing unmet medical needs through specialized treatments.
Consensus EPS
Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Consensus Revenue
Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
38%
Avg EPS Surprise
-7.77%
Avg Stock Reaction
-1.57%
In the last quarter, Ultragenyx reported an EPS of $-1.29, missing expectations slightly. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.59% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Ultragenyx's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a narrower loss compared to previous quarters. However, the company's history of missing estimates raises concerns.
Bull Case
If Ultragenyx can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may signal improving operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear Case
A continued trend of losses and missed revenue targets could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.
Consensus EPS
$-1.46Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Consensus Revenue
$159MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-1.46?
A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved operational performance and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What are the revenue figures compared to the consensus of $159M?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing market demand and the effectiveness of the company's product offerings.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a turnaround in Ultragenyx's performance, particularly given recent improvements in clinical trial results.
Supporting Evidence
Options are pricing a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility that may not be reflected in consensus estimates.
The company's focus on rare diseases could lead to unexpected positive news that drives revenue higher than anticipated.
Key Risk
If the company reports revenue significantly above $159M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Ultragenyx can turn around its recent performance and meet or exceed expectations this quarter.
Bull Confirmed If
Achieving an EPS of $-1.30 or better would confirm the bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS worse than $-1.60 would support the bear case.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±11.7%
Historical Avg
±2.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings announcement, suggesting heightened volatility expectations.
Options are pricing ±11.2% while RARE has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
30d HV
56.0%
Edge
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care
n=30Fade rate: 10 of 27 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 17 of 27 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.7%, with a raw directional average of +3.7% (modestly positive historical bias).
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Ultragenyx beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.63%, confirming a positive outlook.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day drop of -2.89%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.
Preparation
House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
2 buys·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$2,002.00–$30,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Mar 3, 2026 · disclosed Apr 7, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Feb 18, 2026 · disclosed Mar 9, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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