Equity Profile

RARE

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

Health CareBiotechnology$2.3B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for rare genetic diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market presence and generate sales from its products.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RARE Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for rare genetic diseases. With a market cap of $2 billion, it plays a crucial role in addressing unmet medical needs within the healthcare sector.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.93%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Ultragenyx reported an EPS of -$1.84, missing expectations by nearly 19%. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 0.81%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautious heading into the earnings report, especially given the recent history of EPS misses. There is uncertainty about revenue performance and pipeline developments.

Bull Case

If Ultragenyx can demonstrate strong pipeline progress and improved revenue metrics, it could lead to a positive reassessment of its growth potential.

Bear Case

Conversely, continued losses and lack of significant pipeline advancements may raise concerns about the company's long-term viability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current status of Ultragenyx's pipeline and any upcoming product launches?

The market will closely evaluate any updates on the pipeline as it directly impacts future revenue potential and investor confidence.

How does management plan to address the recent EPS misses and improve financial performance?

Investors will be looking for concrete strategies to turn around the company's financial health, which is crucial for long-term viability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be overly focused on recent EPS misses without considering the potential for pipeline advancements that could drive future growth.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a 32.37% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not align with the company's growth potential.

Insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's future, which could contradict the cautious market sentiment.

Key Risk

If the pipeline shows significant progress or if management provides a compelling turnaround strategy, it could challenge the current negative outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it may set the tone for investor sentiment and the company's ability to rebound from recent misses.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating a significant improvement in pipeline progress and a reduction in EPS losses would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Continued losses and lack of clarity on future products would reinforce the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.37%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±32.4% while RARE has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

38.5%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (3K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultragenyx beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.63%, confirming positive investor sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report with cautious commentary may lead to a muted response, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential decline of approximately 2.68%, raising further concerns about its future.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the status of key pipeline products and any anticipated launch timelines.
2Management's strategy for addressing recent financial performance and improving EPS.
3Insights into market conditions and competitive landscape affecting product sales.
4Any new partnerships or collaborations that could enhance growth prospects.
5Details on cost management initiatives and their impact on future profitability.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for rare genetic diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market presence and generate sales from its products.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RARE Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.93%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Ultragenyx reported an EPS of -$1.84, missing expectations by nearly 19%. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 0.81%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautious heading into the earnings report, especially given the recent history of EPS misses. There is uncertainty about revenue performance and pipeline developments.

Bull Case

If Ultragenyx can demonstrate strong pipeline progress and improved revenue metrics, it could lead to a positive reassessment of its growth potential.

Bear Case

Conversely, continued losses and lack of significant pipeline advancements may raise concerns about the company's long-term viability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current status of Ultragenyx's pipeline and any upcoming product launches?

The market will closely evaluate any updates on the pipeline as it directly impacts future revenue potential and investor confidence.

How does management plan to address the recent EPS misses and improve financial performance?

Investors will be looking for concrete strategies to turn around the company's financial health, which is crucial for long-term viability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be overly focused on recent EPS misses without considering the potential for pipeline advancements that could drive future growth.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a 32.37% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not align with the company's growth potential.

Insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's future, which could contradict the cautious market sentiment.

Key Risk

If the pipeline shows significant progress or if management provides a compelling turnaround strategy, it could challenge the current negative outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it may set the tone for investor sentiment and the company's ability to rebound from recent misses.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating a significant improvement in pipeline progress and a reduction in EPS losses would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Continued losses and lack of clarity on future products would reinforce the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.37%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty or anticipation surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±32.4% while RARE has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

38.5%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (3K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultragenyx beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.63%, confirming positive investor sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report with cautious commentary may lead to a muted response, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential decline of approximately 2.68%, raising further concerns about its future.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the status of key pipeline products and any anticipated launch timelines.
2Management's strategy for addressing recent financial performance and improving EPS.
3Insights into market conditions and competitive landscape affecting product sales.
4Any new partnerships or collaborations that could enhance growth prospects.
5Details on cost management initiatives and their impact on future profitability.