Equity Profile

RARE

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

Health CareBiotechnology$3.3B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative treatments for rare diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand its market presence and sustain operations.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RARE Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative treatments for rare diseases. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a crucial role in addressing unmet medical needs in the health care sector.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.93%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ultragenyx reported an EPS of -$1.84, missing estimates by nearly 19%. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 0.81%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on advancing clinical trials for pipeline products.
Commitment to addressing operational challenges.
Plans to enhance investor communication regarding future developments.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as the company has struggled to meet earnings estimates in recent quarters. Investors are keenly watching for any signs of improvement in revenue and pipeline advancements.

Bull Case

If Ultragenyx can demonstrate significant progress in its drug pipeline and show improved financial metrics, it could lead to a strong positive reaction from investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and fails to provide clear guidance on its pipeline, it may face further downward pressure on its stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What specific updates can management provide on the progress of its drug pipeline?

Investors will be closely watching for any advancements or setbacks in the pipeline, as this directly impacts future revenue potential.

Will the company provide guidance on expected revenue growth for the next quarter?

Clear revenue guidance is crucial for building investor confidence and could influence stock performance significantly.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be overly focused on recent EPS misses and not fully appreciating the potential for significant advancements in Ultragenyx's drug pipeline.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 32.37% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's commitment to pipeline progress could yield unexpected positive results that are not currently reflected in stock sentiment.

Key Risk

If the company provides strong updates on its pipeline, it could shift investor sentiment dramatically.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the company's ability to turn around its financial performance while advancing its drug development efforts.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating a clear path to profitability with an EPS improvement of at least 10% from the last quarter.

Bear Confirmed If

Continued EPS losses exceeding -$1.80 without any positive updates on the drug pipeline.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.37%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±32.4% while RARE has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

38.5%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (3K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultragenyx beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.63%.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report with cautious commentary may lead to a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

If the company misses expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of around -2.68%, which could further shake investor confidence.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the timeline for clinical trials and any new data from ongoing studies.
2Management's outlook on revenue growth for the upcoming quarters.
3Details on any partnerships or collaborations that could enhance the drug pipeline.
4Insights into operational efficiencies that may improve financial performance.
5Any commentary on market conditions affecting the biotechnology sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative treatments for rare diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand its market presence and sustain operations.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RARE Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.93%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ultragenyx reported an EPS of -$1.84, missing estimates by nearly 19%. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 0.81%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on advancing clinical trials for pipeline products.
Commitment to addressing operational challenges.
Plans to enhance investor communication regarding future developments.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ultragenyx can demonstrate significant progress in its drug pipeline and show improved financial metrics, it could lead to a strong positive reaction from investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and fails to provide clear guidance on its pipeline, it may face further downward pressure on its stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What specific updates can management provide on the progress of its drug pipeline?

Investors will be closely watching for any advancements or setbacks in the pipeline, as this directly impacts future revenue potential.

Will the company provide guidance on expected revenue growth for the next quarter?

Clear revenue guidance is crucial for building investor confidence and could influence stock performance significantly.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be overly focused on recent EPS misses and not fully appreciating the potential for significant advancements in Ultragenyx's drug pipeline.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 32.37% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's commitment to pipeline progress could yield unexpected positive results that are not currently reflected in stock sentiment.

Key Risk

If the company provides strong updates on its pipeline, it could shift investor sentiment dramatically.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the company's ability to turn around its financial performance while advancing its drug development efforts.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating a clear path to profitability with an EPS improvement of at least 10% from the last quarter.

Bear Confirmed If

Continued EPS losses exceeding -$1.80 without any positive updates on the drug pipeline.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.37%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±32.4% while RARE has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

38.5%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (3K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultragenyx beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.63%.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report with cautious commentary may lead to a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

If the company misses expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of around -2.68%, which could further shake investor confidence.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the timeline for clinical trials and any new data from ongoing studies.
2Management's outlook on revenue growth for the upcoming quarters.
3Details on any partnerships or collaborations that could enhance the drug pipeline.
4Insights into operational efficiencies that may improve financial performance.
5Any commentary on market conditions affecting the biotechnology sector.