Equity Profile

RIOT

Riot Platforms, Inc.

Information TechnologyApplication Software$9.3B

Apr30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Riot Platforms, Inc. operates in the information technology sector, focusing on application software....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

-0.32

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.

129M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RIOT Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Riot Platforms, Inc. operates in the information technology sector, focusing on application software. The company is significant as it plays a role in the growing digital landscape, particularly in areas like blockchain and cryptocurrency, which are becoming increasingly relevant in today's economy.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+106.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Riot Platforms surprised analysts with a positive EPS of $0.26, significantly beating expectations. However, the stock fell by nearly 5% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Riot Platforms' upcoming earnings, expecting a loss but with potential for revenue growth. The consensus EPS estimate is negative, which may set a low bar for the company to exceed.

Bull Case

If Riot can show a smaller loss than expected and strong revenue growth, it could signal operational improvements and increased market confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger loss or lower revenue than anticipated, it could raise concerns about its financial health and future prospects.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

-0.32

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

Revenue

129M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What specific revenue growth can Riot report this quarter?

Revenue performance will be crucial in assessing the company's operational success and market demand.

Will the EPS loss be smaller than the consensus estimate of -$0.32?

A smaller loss could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which would be a positive signal to investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Riot's potential for revenue growth despite a projected EPS loss, as recent operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected sales.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising analysts with positive EPS results, as seen in the last two quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility, which could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $140M, it could challenge the negative EPS narrative and shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on how well Riot can manage costs and generate revenue in a challenging market.

Bull Confirmed If

A revenue figure exceeding $140M would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than -$0.32 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.7%

Historical Avg

±3.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating uncertainty about the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.7% while RIOT has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

80.8%

Calls (1.9M)P/C Ratio: 1.31Puts (1.2M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 4 of 9 faded and 5 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

73.57%

of float

Insider

6.75%

of float

Holders

522

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
39,910,169 sh · $742.7M
10.53%
0.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Riot beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, averaging a 7.3% increase.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors digest the details.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average drop of around 2.8%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on revenue growth and any new customer acquisitions.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
3Updates on market conditions affecting sales.
4Any insights into future product launches or innovations.
5Guidance for the next quarter and beyond.

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More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Brown & Brown, Inc.

Company Snapshot

Riot Platforms, Inc. operates in the information technology sector, focusing on application software....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

-0.32

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.

129M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RIOT Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+106.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Riot can show a smaller loss than expected and strong revenue growth, it could signal operational improvements and increased market confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger loss or lower revenue than anticipated, it could raise concerns about its financial health and future prospects.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

-0.32

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

Revenue

129M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What specific revenue growth can Riot report this quarter?

Revenue performance will be crucial in assessing the company's operational success and market demand.

Will the EPS loss be smaller than the consensus estimate of -$0.32?

A smaller loss could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which would be a positive signal to investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Riot's potential for revenue growth despite a projected EPS loss, as recent operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected sales.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising analysts with positive EPS results, as seen in the last two quarters.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility, which could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $140M, it could challenge the negative EPS narrative and shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on how well Riot can manage costs and generate revenue in a challenging market.

Bull Confirmed If

A revenue figure exceeding $140M would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than -$0.32 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.7%

Historical Avg

±3.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating uncertainty about the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.7% while RIOT has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

80.8%

Calls (1.9M)P/C Ratio: 1.31Puts (1.2M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

73.57%

of float

Insider

6.75%

of float

Holders

522

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
39,910,169 sh · $742.7M
10.53%
0.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Riot beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, averaging a 7.3% increase.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors digest the details.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average drop of around 2.8%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on revenue growth and any new customer acquisitions.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
3Updates on market conditions affecting sales.
4Any insights into future product launches or innovations.
5Guidance for the next quarter and beyond.