Equity Profile

RIOT

Riot Platforms, Inc.

Information TechnologyApplication Software$7.6B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2025After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Riot Platforms, Inc. is a technology company focused on application software, particularly in the cryptocurrency mining sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and this quarter, Riot is expected to report a loss.

$-0.32

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's operational performance and market demand.

$130M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RIOT Q4-2025 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Riot Platforms, Inc. is a technology company focused on application software, particularly in the cryptocurrency mining sector. With a market cap of $8 billion, it plays a significant role in the evolving landscape of digital currencies and blockchain technology.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+106.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2025, Riot surprised analysts with an EPS of $0.26, significantly exceeding expectations. However, the stock fell by nearly 5% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving operational efficiency.
Commitment to expanding mining capacity.
Plans to enhance software offerings.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Riot's upcoming earnings, expecting a loss but with potential for revenue growth. The market will closely watch how the company navigates the volatile cryptocurrency landscape.

Bull Case

If Riot can exceed revenue expectations and demonstrate a path to profitability, it could signal strong demand for its services and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger loss than expected or lower revenue, it may raise concerns about its operational viability in a challenging market.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.32

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and this quarter, Riot is expected to report a loss.

Revenue

$130M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's operational performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Riot achieve revenue of at least $130 million this quarter?

Meeting or exceeding this revenue target could indicate strong demand and operational success, which is crucial for investor confidence.

How will management address the expected loss of $-0.32 per share?

Investors will be keen to understand the company's strategy for returning to profitability and any factors contributing to the anticipated loss.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Riot's potential for revenue growth, given its recent operational improvements and market positioning.

Supporting Evidence

Riot's recent EPS surprises indicate a capacity for better-than-expected performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting traders anticipate volatility that could favor the company.

Historical trends show that Riot has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

Key Risk

If the revenue comes in significantly above $130 million, it could shift the narrative towards a more favorable outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for revenue growth against the backdrop of expected losses, making these metrics critical for future sentiment.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth exceeding $130 million with a clear path to profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $-0.32, indicating deeper operational issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.36%

Historical Avg

±3.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.4% while RIOT has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

79.4%

Calls (3.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.29Puts (3.9M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 4 of 9 faded and 5 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

73.57%

of float

Insider

6.75%

of float

Holders

522

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
39,910,169 sh · $742.7M
10.53%
0.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Riot beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest decline of around 0.85%, but it would confirm a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious optimism without strong conviction.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 2.79%, indicating investor disappointment and concerns about the company's future.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mining capacity expansion plans.
2Details on operational efficiency improvements.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and market demand.
4Management's strategy for addressing expected losses.
5Future outlook and guidance for the next quarter.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Riot Platforms, Inc. is a technology company focused on application software, particularly in the cryptocurrency mining sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and this quarter, Riot is expected to report a loss.

$-0.32

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's operational performance and market demand.

$130M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RIOT Q4-2025 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+106.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2025, Riot surprised analysts with an EPS of $0.26, significantly exceeding expectations. However, the stock fell by nearly 5% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving operational efficiency.
Commitment to expanding mining capacity.
Plans to enhance software offerings.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Riot can exceed revenue expectations and demonstrate a path to profitability, it could signal strong demand for its services and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger loss than expected or lower revenue, it may raise concerns about its operational viability in a challenging market.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.32

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and this quarter, Riot is expected to report a loss.

Revenue

$130M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's operational performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Riot achieve revenue of at least $130 million this quarter?

Meeting or exceeding this revenue target could indicate strong demand and operational success, which is crucial for investor confidence.

How will management address the expected loss of $-0.32 per share?

Investors will be keen to understand the company's strategy for returning to profitability and any factors contributing to the anticipated loss.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Riot's potential for revenue growth, given its recent operational improvements and market positioning.

Supporting Evidence

Riot's recent EPS surprises indicate a capacity for better-than-expected performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting traders anticipate volatility that could favor the company.

Historical trends show that Riot has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

Key Risk

If the revenue comes in significantly above $130 million, it could shift the narrative towards a more favorable outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for revenue growth against the backdrop of expected losses, making these metrics critical for future sentiment.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth exceeding $130 million with a clear path to profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $-0.32, indicating deeper operational issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.36%

Historical Avg

±3.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.4% while RIOT has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

79.4%

Calls (3.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.29Puts (3.9M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

73.57%

of float

Insider

6.75%

of float

Holders

522

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
39,910,169 sh · $742.7M
10.53%
0.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Riot beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest decline of around 0.85%, but it would confirm a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious optimism without strong conviction.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 2.79%, indicating investor disappointment and concerns about the company's future.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mining capacity expansion plans.
2Details on operational efficiency improvements.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and market demand.
4Management's strategy for addressing expected losses.
5Future outlook and guidance for the next quarter.