Equity Profile

RITM

Rithm Capital Corp.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$5.2B

Apr28Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:30 AM EDT

Rithm Capital Corp. Misses on EPS, Stock Down 0.1%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.51	$0.50	-2.86%
Revenue	N/A	$1.3B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Rithm Capital Corp. Misses on EPS, Stock Down 0.1%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.51	$0.50	-2.86%
Revenue	N/A	$1.3B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Cautiously Optimistic

Management expressed cautious optimism about the company's strategy amidst market challenges. They emphasized a focus on operational efficiency.

We are navigating a challenging market environment but remain focused on our long-term strategy.

Our commitment to operational efficiency continues to drive our performance.

What It Means

Rithm Capital's earnings report shows a slight miss on EPS expectations, which may indicate some challenges in the current market. The stock reacted with a minor decline of 0.1%, reflecting investor sentiment following the results. The lack of revenue data and guidance may leave investors seeking more clarity on future performance.

Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on investing in and managing a diversified portfolio of mortgage-related assets....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its mortgage investments.

$0.50

Revenue

Total revenue will provide insight into the company's overall performance and growth in the mortgage market.

$1.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on investing in and managing a diversified portfolio of mortgage-related assets. As part of the financial sector, it plays a crucial role in providing liquidity to the housing market, which is essential for economic stability and growth.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.94%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Rithm Capital reported an EPS of $0.74, significantly exceeding expectations of $0.55. The stock reacted positively, rising 1.39% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on optimizing the mortgage portfolio.
Commitment to maintaining strong liquidity.
Plans to explore new investment opportunities in the mortgage sector.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Rithm Capital to report strong earnings, with a consensus EPS of $0.50. The company has historically beaten EPS estimates, which could lead to positive market reactions.

Bull Case

If Rithm Capital exceeds the EPS estimate, it could signal strong management and effective investment strategies, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate the current mortgage market.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.50

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its mortgage investments.

Revenue

$1.3B

Total revenue will provide insight into the company's overall performance and growth in the mortgage market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Rithm Capital's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.50?

A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

What guidance will management provide regarding future revenue growth?

Clear guidance on revenue can help investors gauge the company's outlook in a fluctuating mortgage market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

While the consensus expects a steady EPS of $0.50, the market may be underestimating Rithm's ability to capitalize on current mortgage trends, potentially leading to a surprise upside.

Supporting Evidence

Rithm has a history of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% success rate in the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a higher volatility than historical averages, indicating potential for a larger move.

Recent performance trends indicate a strong recovery in mortgage demand, which could benefit Rithm.

Key Risk

If Rithm's EPS comes in below $0.48, it could undermine the positive outlook and shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be critical in determining Rithm Capital's ability to maintain its competitive edge in the mortgage sector.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.52 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.48 would support the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.68%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±5.1% while RITM has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

25.2%

Calls (88K)P/C Ratio: 2.09Puts (184K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Rithm beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.13%, confirming strong management effectiveness.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting cautious sentiment.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.35%, indicating investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's mortgage portfolio performance.
2Management's commentary on market conditions and interest rates.
3Insights into future investment strategies.
4Guidance on expected revenue growth for the next quarter.
5Discussion on liquidity management and capital allocation.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on investing in and managing a diversified portfolio of mortgage-related assets....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its mortgage investments.

$0.50

Revenue

Total revenue will provide insight into the company's overall performance and growth in the mortgage market.

$1.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.94%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Rithm Capital reported an EPS of $0.74, significantly exceeding expectations of $0.55. The stock reacted positively, rising 1.39% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on optimizing the mortgage portfolio.
Commitment to maintaining strong liquidity.
Plans to explore new investment opportunities in the mortgage sector.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Rithm Capital to report strong earnings, with a consensus EPS of $0.50. The company has historically beaten EPS estimates, which could lead to positive market reactions.

Bull Case

If Rithm Capital exceeds the EPS estimate, it could signal strong management and effective investment strategies, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate the current mortgage market.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.50

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its mortgage investments.

Revenue

$1.3B

Total revenue will provide insight into the company's overall performance and growth in the mortgage market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Rithm Capital's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.50?

A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

What guidance will management provide regarding future revenue growth?

Clear guidance on revenue can help investors gauge the company's outlook in a fluctuating mortgage market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

While the consensus expects a steady EPS of $0.50, the market may be underestimating Rithm's ability to capitalize on current mortgage trends, potentially leading to a surprise upside.

Supporting Evidence

Rithm has a history of beating EPS estimates, with an 88% success rate in the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a higher volatility than historical averages, indicating potential for a larger move.

Recent performance trends indicate a strong recovery in mortgage demand, which could benefit Rithm.

Key Risk

If Rithm's EPS comes in below $0.48, it could undermine the positive outlook and shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be critical in determining Rithm Capital's ability to maintain its competitive edge in the mortgage sector.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.52 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.48 would support the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.68%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±5.1% while RITM has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

25.2%

Calls (88K)P/C Ratio: 2.09Puts (184K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Rithm beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.13%, confirming strong management effectiveness.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting cautious sentiment.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.35%, indicating investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's mortgage portfolio performance.
2Management's commentary on market conditions and interest rates.
3Insights into future investment strategies.
4Guidance on expected revenue growth for the next quarter.
5Discussion on liquidity management and capital allocation.