Equity Profile

RXO

RXO, Inc.

IndustrialsCargo Ground Transportation$4.4B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

RXO, Inc. operates in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing logistics and transportation services....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well RXO is managing its costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand its operations and capture market share.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RXO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

RXO, Inc. operates in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing logistics and transportation services. As a player in the industrials sector, RXO is influenced by trends in consumer spending and supply chain dynamics, which are crucial for its performance.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.87%

Avg Stock Reaction

-5.08%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, RXO reported an EPS of -$0.09, matching analyst expectations but showing no surprise. The stock reacted positively, gaining 17.79% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed for RXO's upcoming earnings report, with no analyst estimates available. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of improvement in profitability and revenue.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on RXO demonstrating a turnaround in profitability with a potential EPS beat and strong revenue growth, suggesting improved operational efficiency.

Bear Case

On the pessimistic side, if RXO fails to show any improvement in earnings or revenue, it could lead to further declines in stock price, especially given its recent history of misses.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of RXO's profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How is RXO addressing operational efficiency and cost management?

Investors will be keen to hear about strategies to improve margins, especially in a competitive transportation market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating RXO's potential for a turnaround given its recent operational adjustments and cost management strategies.

Supporting Evidence

RXO's recent stock price movements suggest that investors are optimistic about a potential recovery.

The options market is pricing in a relatively modest move, indicating that traders may not fully appreciate the upside potential.

Key Risk

If RXO reports an EPS that exceeds $0.00, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as RXO needs to show it can turn around its recent financial struggles.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.00 or better, along with indications of revenue growth, would support a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of -$0.10 or worse would confirm the bearish sentiment and raise concerns about the company's future.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.06%

Historical Avg

±10.0%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 6.06%, indicating that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.1% while RXO has averaged ±10.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

93.7%

Calls (38K)P/C Ratio: 0.05Puts (3K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +1.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If RXO beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +2.78%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

If RXO misses expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of -8.92%, leading to increased bearish sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management initiatives and their impact on margins.
2Details on customer demand trends and how they might affect future revenue.
3Insights into operational efficiencies gained since the last quarter.
4Management's outlook on the transportation market and competitive landscape.
5Any commentary on strategic partnerships or new contracts that could drive growth.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Aug3

ONBMO

ON Semiconductor Corporation

PreviewView

Aug3

LBMO

Company Snapshot

RXO, Inc. operates in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing logistics and transportation services....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well RXO is managing its costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand its operations and capture market share.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RXO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.87%

Avg Stock Reaction

-5.08%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, RXO reported an EPS of -$0.09, matching analyst expectations but showing no surprise. The stock reacted positively, gaining 17.79% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed for RXO's upcoming earnings report, with no analyst estimates available. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of improvement in profitability and revenue.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on RXO demonstrating a turnaround in profitability with a potential EPS beat and strong revenue growth, suggesting improved operational efficiency.

Bear Case

On the pessimistic side, if RXO fails to show any improvement in earnings or revenue, it could lead to further declines in stock price, especially given its recent history of misses.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of RXO's profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How is RXO addressing operational efficiency and cost management?

Investors will be keen to hear about strategies to improve margins, especially in a competitive transportation market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating RXO's potential for a turnaround given its recent operational adjustments and cost management strategies.

Supporting Evidence

RXO's recent stock price movements suggest that investors are optimistic about a potential recovery.

The options market is pricing in a relatively modest move, indicating that traders may not fully appreciate the upside potential.

Key Risk

If RXO reports an EPS that exceeds $0.00, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as RXO needs to show it can turn around its recent financial struggles.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.00 or better, along with indications of revenue growth, would support a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS of -$0.10 or worse would confirm the bearish sentiment and raise concerns about the company's future.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.06%

Historical Avg

±10.0%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 6.06%, indicating that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.1% while RXO has averaged ±10.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

93.7%

Calls (38K)P/C Ratio: 0.05Puts (3K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If RXO beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +2.78%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

If RXO misses expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of -8.92%, leading to increased bearish sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management initiatives and their impact on margins.
2Details on customer demand trends and how they might affect future revenue.
3Insights into operational efficiencies gained since the last quarter.
4Management's outlook on the transportation market and competitive landscape.
5Any commentary on strategic partnerships or new contracts that could drive growth.