Equity Profile

SHOO

Steven Madden, Ltd.

Consumer DiscretionaryFootwear$3.2B

May6Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:59 AM EDT

Steven Madden Beats on EPS, Stock Up 6.18%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.45	$0.43	+7.91%
Revenue	N/A	$648M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Steven Madden Beats on EPS, Stock Up 6.18%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.45	$0.43	+7.91%
Revenue	N/A	$648M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Steven Madden's earnings report showed a positive surprise in EPS, which likely contributed to the stock's 6.18% increase. However, the lack of revenue data leaves some uncertainty about overall performance. Investors may be encouraged by the EPS beat but will need to wait for more information on revenue and future guidance.

Company Snapshot

Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) is a footwear company that designs and markets stylish shoes and accessories....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

0.43

Revenue

Total revenue shows the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is crucial for assessing growth.

648M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) is a footwear company that designs and markets stylish shoes and accessories. As a player in the consumer discretionary sector, it is influenced by trends in fashion and consumer spending, making its performance relevant to investors looking at retail trends.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.21%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.47%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Steven Madden reported an EPS of $0.48, slightly beating analyst expectations. However, the stock dropped 4.12% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the positive earnings surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting Steven Madden to report an EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $648 million for Q1-2026. The market is watching closely for any signs of growth in consumer demand.

Bull Case

If the company exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal a rebound in consumer spending, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its ability to compete in a challenging retail environment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.43

Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

648M

Total revenue shows the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is crucial for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed $0.43 as expected?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong cost management and consumer demand, which is critical for investor confidence.

What is the outlook for revenue growth this quarter?

Revenue growth signals the company's ability to attract customers and compete effectively in the market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a strong earnings surprise driven by improved consumer sentiment and effective marketing strategies.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent product launches have received positive feedback, indicating potential for higher sales.

Historical data shows a strong EPS beat rate of 75%, suggesting a pattern of outperforming expectations.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move than historical averages, which could reflect underlying bullish sentiment.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $659 million, it could challenge the bearish outlook and shift sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Steven Madden can sustain its growth trajectory amidst changing consumer preferences.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm strong demand and cost control.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.32 would raise serious concerns about the company's profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.43%

Historical Avg

±7.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±11.4% while SHOO has averaged ±7.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

34.7%

Calls (208K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (109K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.4%, with a raw directional average of +2.8% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Steven Madden beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.13%, confirming a positive outlook for consumer spending.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors weigh the implications of the results against broader market conditions.

Miss

A miss on earnings could result in a decline of around 2.16%, reflecting market disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on consumer demand trends and how they are impacting sales.
2Insights into inventory management and supply chain efficiency.
3Details on new product launches and marketing strategies.
4Updates on any changes in pricing strategy or promotional activities.
5Management's outlook on the competitive landscape and market positioning.

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Company Snapshot

Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) is a footwear company that designs and markets stylish shoes and accessories....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

0.43

Revenue

Total revenue shows the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is crucial for assessing growth.

648M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.21%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.47%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting Steven Madden to report an EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $648 million for Q1-2026. The market is watching closely for any signs of growth in consumer demand.

Bull Case

If the company exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal a rebound in consumer spending, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its ability to compete in a challenging retail environment.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.43

Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

648M

Total revenue shows the company's sales performance and market demand for its products, which is crucial for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed $0.43 as expected?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong cost management and consumer demand, which is critical for investor confidence.

What is the outlook for revenue growth this quarter?

Revenue growth signals the company's ability to attract customers and compete effectively in the market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a strong earnings surprise driven by improved consumer sentiment and effective marketing strategies.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent product launches have received positive feedback, indicating potential for higher sales.

Historical data shows a strong EPS beat rate of 75%, suggesting a pattern of outperforming expectations.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move than historical averages, which could reflect underlying bullish sentiment.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $659 million, it could challenge the bearish outlook and shift sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Steven Madden can sustain its growth trajectory amidst changing consumer preferences.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm strong demand and cost control.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.32 would raise serious concerns about the company's profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.43%

Historical Avg

±7.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±11.4% while SHOO has averaged ±7.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

34.7%

Calls (208K)P/C Ratio: 0.02Puts (109K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Steven Madden beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.13%, confirming a positive outlook for consumer spending.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors weigh the implications of the results against broader market conditions.

Miss

A miss on earnings could result in a decline of around 2.16%, reflecting market disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on consumer demand trends and how they are impacting sales.
2Insights into inventory management and supply chain efficiency.
3Details on new product launches and marketing strategies.
4Updates on any changes in pricing strategy or promotional activities.
5Management's outlook on the competitive landscape and market positioning.