Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) is a footwear company that designs and sells stylish shoes and accessories....
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
Revenue figures help gauge overall sales performance and market demand for Steven Madden's products.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
1Q
EPS Beat Rate
75%
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.23%
Avg Stock Reaction
+1.39%
In Q4-2025, Steven Madden reported an EPS of $0.48, beating expectations slightly. However, the stock fell by 4.12% the following day, indicating some market disappointment despite the earnings beat.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect Steven Madden to report an EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $648 million for Q1-2026, reflecting cautious optimism in the consumer discretionary sector.
Bull Case
If the company can exceed EPS expectations, it may signal strong demand for its products and effective cost management, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or shows signs of declining sales, it could raise concerns about consumer spending and market competition, leading to a negative stock reaction.
EPS
0.43Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
648MRevenue figures help gauge overall sales performance and market demand for Steven Madden's products.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.43?
A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected demand and operational efficiency, positively impacting investor sentiment.
Q2
What will revenue figures reveal about consumer demand?
Revenue performance is critical to understanding the company's market position and potential growth, especially in a competitive retail environment.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
While analysts expect a modest EPS of $0.43, the company's recent history of beating estimates suggests that the Street may be underestimating its performance potential this quarter.
Supporting Evidence
Steven Madden has a 75% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters, indicating a strong track record.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than the historical average, suggesting heightened expectations.
Recent consumer trends indicate a rebound in discretionary spending, which could benefit Steven Madden.
Key Risk
If revenue comes in significantly above $659 million, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as it reflects not only the company's financial health but also broader trends in consumer spending.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and consumer demand.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.32 would raise concerns about declining sales and market share.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±10.34%
Historical Avg
±7.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±10.2% while SHOO has averaged ±7.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
38.7%
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Steven Madden beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.13%, confirming a positive outlook.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to a muted response as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could result in a decline, with history indicating an average drop of 2.16% when expectations are not met.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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