Equity Profile

SHOP

Shopify Inc.

Information TechnologyInternet Services & Infrastructure$142.1B

May5Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Shopify Inc. is a leading e-commerce platform that enables businesses to create online stores and sell products....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Shopify is managing its costs and generating profits.

$0.33

Revenue

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain customers, which is vital for its long-term success.

$3.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SHOP Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Shopify Inc. is a leading e-commerce platform that enables businesses to create online stores and sell products. As part of the Information Technology sector, Shopify plays a crucial role in the growing trend of online shopping and digital commerce, making it a key player in the Internet Services & Infrastructure industry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+217.95%

Avg Stock Reaction

+3.03%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Shopify reported an EPS of $0.20, which was below the expected $0.24, leading to a stock decline of nearly 7% the following day. The company did not provide specific revenue figures, leaving investors uncertain about its performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Shopify's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest EPS of $0.33 and revenue of $3.1B. The company has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, which could influence market sentiment positively.

Bull Case

If Shopify exceeds EPS and revenue expectations, it could signal strong demand for its services and lead to a significant stock price increase, as seen in previous quarters.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Shopify misses its targets again, it may raise concerns about its growth trajectory and lead to further declines in stock price, especially given the recent disappointing results.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.33

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Shopify is managing its costs and generating profits.

Revenue

$3.1B

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain customers, which is vital for its long-term success.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Shopify achieve an EPS of at least $0.33?

Achieving or exceeding this EPS target is crucial for restoring investor confidence after recent misses and could drive stock price recovery.

What is the revenue growth compared to last year?

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market position and future potential, especially in a competitive e-commerce landscape.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Shopify's ability to rebound from recent performance issues, as the company has a strong history of surprising on the upside.

Supporting Evidence

Shopify has consistently beaten EPS estimates in 88% of the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant reaction.

Recent trends in e-commerce suggest a rebound in consumer spending, which could benefit Shopify.

Key Risk

If Shopify's revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Shopify's ability to maintain growth amidst competitive pressures and recent performance trends.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.39 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $3.1B, would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.25 and revenue below $3.0B would signal ongoing challenges in growth and profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.08%

Historical Avg

±14.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, reflecting uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.1% while SHOP has averaged ±14.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

54.4%

Calls (1.8M)P/C Ratio: 0.72Puts (2.1M)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders trimming

Institutional

74.03%

of float

Insider

0.19%

of float

Holders

2,457

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
50,670,627 sh · $6.4B
4.14%
1.5%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Shopify beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 4.45%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 6.94%, as seen in previous quarters when expectations were not met.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$51,002.00–$115,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-ILJonathan JacksonRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on customer acquisition and retention metrics.
2Any insights into the impact of economic conditions on sales.
3Details on new product offerings or enhancements to the platform.
4Management's outlook on e-commerce trends for the upcoming quarters.
5Responses to competitive pressures in the market.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Shopify Inc. is a leading e-commerce platform that enables businesses to create online stores and sell products....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Shopify is managing its costs and generating profits.

$0.33

Revenue

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain customers, which is vital for its long-term success.

$3.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SHOP Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+217.95%

Avg Stock Reaction

+3.03%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Shopify exceeds EPS and revenue expectations, it could signal strong demand for its services and lead to a significant stock price increase, as seen in previous quarters.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Shopify misses its targets again, it may raise concerns about its growth trajectory and lead to further declines in stock price, especially given the recent disappointing results.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.33

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Shopify is managing its costs and generating profits.

Revenue

$3.1B

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain customers, which is vital for its long-term success.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Shopify achieve an EPS of at least $0.33?

Achieving or exceeding this EPS target is crucial for restoring investor confidence after recent misses and could drive stock price recovery.

What is the revenue growth compared to last year?

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market position and future potential, especially in a competitive e-commerce landscape.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Shopify's ability to rebound from recent performance issues, as the company has a strong history of surprising on the upside.

Supporting Evidence

Shopify has consistently beaten EPS estimates in 88% of the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant reaction.

Recent trends in e-commerce suggest a rebound in consumer spending, which could benefit Shopify.

Key Risk

If Shopify's revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Shopify's ability to maintain growth amidst competitive pressures and recent performance trends.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.39 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $3.1B, would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.25 and revenue below $3.0B would signal ongoing challenges in growth and profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±17.08%

Historical Avg

±14.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, reflecting uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±17.1% while SHOP has averaged ±14.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

54.4%

Calls (1.8M)P/C Ratio: 0.72Puts (2.1M)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders trimming

Institutional

74.03%

of float

Insider

0.19%

of float

Holders

2,457

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
50,670,627 sh · $6.4B
4.14%
1.5%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Shopify beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 4.45%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 6.94%, as seen in previous quarters when expectations were not met.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·2 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$51,002.00–$115,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-ILJonathan JacksonRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on customer acquisition and retention metrics.
2Any insights into the impact of economic conditions on sales.
3Details on new product offerings or enhancements to the platform.
4Management's outlook on e-commerce trends for the upcoming quarters.
5Responses to competitive pressures in the market.