Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) is a leading provider of lawn and garden products, including fertilizers and seeds. Operating in the materials sector, the company plays a significant role in the agricultural chemicals industry, which is increasingly important as consumer interest in gardening and sustainable practices grows.
EPS
Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall sales performance and demand for Scotts Miracle-Gro's products this quarter.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
1Q
EPS Beat Rate
75%
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.83%
Avg Stock Reaction
-3.38%
In Q1 2026, Scotts Miracle-Gro reported an EPS of -$0.77, outperforming expectations of -$1.04. Despite the surprise, the stock fell by 0.68% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts are expecting Scotts Miracle-Gro to report an EPS of $4.01 and revenue of $1.4 billion for Q2 2026. The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, which could influence market reactions.
Bull Case
If Scotts Miracle-Gro can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may indicate a robust recovery in demand, leading to positive investor sentiment.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS expectations or shows weak revenue growth, it could raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the gardening market, leading to a negative reaction.
EPS
$4.01Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$1.4BRevenue figures will provide insight into the overall sales performance and demand for Scotts Miracle-Gro's products this quarter.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What will the EPS be compared to the consensus estimate of $4.01?
The EPS figure is crucial for understanding the company's profitability and could significantly influence stock performance.
Q2
How does management view revenue growth in the context of current market conditions?
Management's insights on revenue growth will help investors gauge demand trends and the company's competitive position.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Scotts Miracle-Gro to exceed EPS expectations due to a rebound in consumer gardening interest.
Supporting Evidence
The company has a 75% EPS beat rate historically, indicating a strong likelihood of outperforming expectations.
Recent trends in consumer spending on gardening supplies suggest a potential uptick in sales that analysts may not fully account for.
Key Risk
If the EPS comes in below $4.01, it could undermine confidence in the company's recovery strategy.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it reflects the company's ability to navigate market pressures and capitalize on gardening trends.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $4.17 or higher would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $3.93 would raise concerns about profitability and market challenges.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±N/A
Historical Avg
±7.1%
There is no options market data available to gauge investor sentiment ahead of the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±6.4% while SMG has averaged ±7.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
30d HV
51.1%
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Scotts Miracle-Gro beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +2.5%, confirming a positive outlook.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in management's commentary.
Miss
A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of around -8.83% based on historical patterns, signaling deeper issues in the business.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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