Equity Profile

SMG

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

MaterialsFertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals$3.5B

Apr29Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ2-2026Pre-Market6:50 AM EDT

Scotts Miracle-Gro Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.0%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$4.53	$4.01	+14.16%
Revenue	N/A	$1.4B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Beats on EPS, Stock Up 0.0%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$4.53	$4.01	+14.16%
Revenue	N/A	$1.4B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Cautiously Optimistic

Overall, management expressed confidence in their strategic direction while acknowledging external challenges. They are focused on maintaining operational efficiency.

Management highlighted strong operational performance despite challenging market conditions.

They emphasized their commitment to innovation and customer engagement.

What It Means

Scotts Miracle-Gro's earnings report shows a strong performance in EPS, exceeding expectations significantly. However, the lack of revenue data and no guidance updates may leave investors cautious. The stock reaction remained flat, indicating that investors are weighing the positive EPS surprise against uncertainties in revenue and future guidance.

Company Snapshot

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) is a leading provider of lawn and garden products, including fertilizers and seeds. As a key player in the materials sector, its performance can be influenced by consumer spending trends and agricultural demand.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$4.01

Revenue

Revenue reflects the overall sales performance and demand for Scotts' products, which is vital for assessing growth.

$1.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+11.23%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.89%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Scotts reported an EPS of -$0.77, outperforming expectations by 25.68%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.68% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Scotts Miracle-Gro to report improved earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $4.01. The market is keenly watching for signs of recovery in consumer demand.

Bull Case

If Scotts can deliver strong EPS and revenue figures, it may signal a rebound in consumer spending and confidence in the gardening sector, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the market, leading to a further decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$4.01

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.4B

Revenue reflects the overall sales performance and demand for Scotts' products, which is vital for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS meet or exceed the consensus of $4.01?

A strong EPS could indicate effective cost management and recovery in sales, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth?

Investors will be looking for insights into future sales trends, especially in light of recent consumer spending patterns.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a strong recovery in consumer demand, especially as gardening trends remain popular.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising on the upside, with a 75% EPS beat rate in recent quarters.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, indicating that traders expect significant movement, which could be bullish.

Recent trends in home improvement spending may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will reflect the company's ability to recover from previous losses and adapt to market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $4.10 or higher with revenue exceeding $1.4B would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.93 or weak revenue guidance would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.52%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.3% while SMG has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

51.8%

Calls (25K)P/C Ratio: 1.04Puts (2K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Scotts beats expectations, history suggests a modest stock increase of around 1.57%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 8.83%, indicating ongoing struggles in the market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer demand trends for gardening products.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and market share.
4Future guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter.
5Any changes in product lines or new product launches.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$4.01

Revenue

Revenue reflects the overall sales performance and demand for Scotts' products, which is vital for assessing growth.

$1.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+11.23%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.89%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Scotts reported an EPS of -$0.77, outperforming expectations by 25.68%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.68% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Scotts Miracle-Gro to report improved earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $4.01. The market is keenly watching for signs of recovery in consumer demand.

Bull Case

If Scotts can deliver strong EPS and revenue figures, it may signal a rebound in consumer spending and confidence in the gardening sector, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the market, leading to a further decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$4.01

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.4B

Revenue reflects the overall sales performance and demand for Scotts' products, which is vital for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS meet or exceed the consensus of $4.01?

A strong EPS could indicate effective cost management and recovery in sales, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth?

Investors will be looking for insights into future sales trends, especially in light of recent consumer spending patterns.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for a strong recovery in consumer demand, especially as gardening trends remain popular.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising on the upside, with a 75% EPS beat rate in recent quarters.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, indicating that traders expect significant movement, which could be bullish.

Recent trends in home improvement spending may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will reflect the company's ability to recover from previous losses and adapt to market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $4.10 or higher with revenue exceeding $1.4B would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.93 or weak revenue guidance would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.52%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.3% while SMG has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

51.8%

Calls (25K)P/C Ratio: 1.04Puts (2K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Scotts beats expectations, history suggests a modest stock increase of around 1.57%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 8.83%, indicating ongoing struggles in the market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer demand trends for gardening products.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and market share.
4Future guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter.
5Any changes in product lines or new product launches.