Equity Profile

STWD

Starwood Property Trust, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$6.1B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its loan portfolio.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric shows the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, which is vital for a mortgage REIT's profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

STWD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on originating, acquiring, and managing commercial mortgage loans and other real estate-related investments. As a player in the financial sector, it plays a crucial role in providing capital to the real estate market, which can be influenced by interest rates and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-3.64%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.07%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Starwood reported an EPS of $0.39, slightly below the estimated $0.40, resulting in a stock decline of 1.66% the following day. The company has shown mixed performance in previous quarters, with a recent trend of beating or missing EPS estimates.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts are cautious about Starwood's upcoming earnings, given the mixed results in recent quarters. Investors are particularly focused on how the company is managing its loan portfolio amid changing interest rates.

Bull Case

If Starwood can demonstrate strong loan origination and maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could lead to a positive surprise in earnings, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected EPS or shows signs of deteriorating loan performance, it could lead to a significant decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the mixed performance in recent quarters, the EPS figure will be critical in determining market sentiment and stock movement.

How is Starwood managing its loan origination volume in the current economic climate?

Loan origination volume is a key indicator of growth potential and demand, which will heavily influence investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Starwood's ability to manage its loan portfolio effectively, especially in a rising interest rate environment, which could lead to better-than-expected EPS.

Supporting Evidence

Starwood has historically shown a 63% beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.

The options market is pricing in an 8.37% move, suggesting traders expect significant volatility that could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If loan origination volume exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on the company's ability to navigate the current economic environment and manage its loan portfolio effectively.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.42 or higher, with a strong indication of increased loan origination volume.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.39, coupled with a decline in loan origination volume.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.37%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a larger-than-average move of 8.37%, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.4% while STWD has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.5%

Calls (56K)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (109K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Starwood beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.84%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report could lead to muted reactions as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a decline of approximately 1.21%, indicating investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan origination strategies and how they are adapting to current market conditions.
2Details on net interest margins and how they are being affected by interest rate changes.
3Management's outlook on the real estate market and potential impacts on future earnings.
4Insights into any changes in the company's capital structure or funding strategies.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the mortgage REIT sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its loan portfolio.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric shows the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, which is vital for a mortgage REIT's profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

STWD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-3.64%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.07%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Starwood can demonstrate strong loan origination and maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could lead to a positive surprise in earnings, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected EPS or shows signs of deteriorating loan performance, it could lead to a significant decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the mixed performance in recent quarters, the EPS figure will be critical in determining market sentiment and stock movement.

How is Starwood managing its loan origination volume in the current economic climate?

Loan origination volume is a key indicator of growth potential and demand, which will heavily influence investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Starwood's ability to manage its loan portfolio effectively, especially in a rising interest rate environment, which could lead to better-than-expected EPS.

Supporting Evidence

Starwood has historically shown a 63% beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.

The options market is pricing in an 8.37% move, suggesting traders expect significant volatility that could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If loan origination volume exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on the company's ability to navigate the current economic environment and manage its loan portfolio effectively.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.42 or higher, with a strong indication of increased loan origination volume.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.39, coupled with a decline in loan origination volume.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.37%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a larger-than-average move of 8.37%, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.4% while STWD has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.5%

Calls (56K)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (109K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Starwood beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.84%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report could lead to muted reactions as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a decline of approximately 1.21%, indicating investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan origination strategies and how they are adapting to current market conditions.
2Details on net interest margins and how they are being affected by interest rate changes.
3Management's outlook on the real estate market and potential impacts on future earnings.
4Insights into any changes in the company's capital structure or funding strategies.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the mortgage REIT sector.