Equity Profile

STWD

Starwood Property Trust, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$6.1B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on mortgage lending and investment in real estate properties....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its investments.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's ability to generate income from its mortgage and real estate investments.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

STWD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on mortgage lending and investment in real estate properties. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in the mortgage REIT industry, which is influenced by interest rates and real estate market trends.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-3.64%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.07%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Starwood reported an EPS of $0.39, slightly below the expected $0.40, resulting in a 1.66% decline in stock price the following day. The company has shown mixed performance in previous quarters, with some earnings beats and misses.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Starwood's upcoming earnings, especially given the mixed results from previous quarters. The market is closely watching for any signs of improvement in profitability and revenue generation.

Bull Case

If Starwood can report better-than-expected EPS and revenue, it may signal a recovery in its investment performance, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about its ability to manage its portfolio effectively, resulting in further stock price declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2 2026?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How has the company's revenue changed compared to previous quarters?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the effectiveness of Starwood's investment strategies and overall market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Starwood to recover from recent earnings misses, as the market is pricing in a significant move without considering the company's historical ability to rebound.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing an 8.37% move, while the stock has averaged only a 1.55% move in the past.

Starwood has a 63% EPS beat rate historically, suggesting a greater chance of exceeding expectations.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.42, it could significantly shift market sentiment in favor of the company.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is critical as it will reveal whether Starwood can maintain or improve its profitability amidst fluctuating market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.42 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.39 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.37%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 8%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.4% while STWD has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.5%

Calls (56K)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (109K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Starwood beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.84%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around -1.21% in stock price, indicating ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on changes in the real estate market and its impact on Starwood's investments.
2Updates on the company's mortgage lending performance and strategies.
3Insights into how interest rate changes are affecting Starwood's business.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth and profitability.
5Details on any new investments or divestitures planned for the upcoming quarters.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on mortgage lending and investment in real estate properties....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its investments.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's ability to generate income from its mortgage and real estate investments.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

STWD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-3.64%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.07%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Starwood can report better-than-expected EPS and revenue, it may signal a recovery in its investment performance, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about its ability to manage its portfolio effectively, resulting in further stock price declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2 2026?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How has the company's revenue changed compared to previous quarters?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the effectiveness of Starwood's investment strategies and overall market conditions.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing an 8.37% move, while the stock has averaged only a 1.55% move in the past.

Starwood has a 63% EPS beat rate historically, suggesting a greater chance of exceeding expectations.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.42, it could significantly shift market sentiment in favor of the company.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is critical as it will reveal whether Starwood can maintain or improve its profitability amidst fluctuating market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.42 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.39 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.37%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 8%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.4% while STWD has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.5%

Calls (56K)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (109K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Starwood beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.84%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around -1.21% in stock price, indicating ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on changes in the real estate market and its impact on Starwood's investments.
2Updates on the company's mortgage lending performance and strategies.
3Insights into how interest rate changes are affecting Starwood's business.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth and profitability.
5Details on any new investments or divestitures planned for the upcoming quarters.