Equity Profile

STWD

Starwood Property Trust, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$6.3B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on commercial mortgage lending and real estate investments....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS gives insight into the company's profitability and is a key indicator for investors.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its lending and investment operations.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

STWD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on commercial mortgage lending and real estate investments. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in the mortgage REIT industry, which is influenced by interest rates and real estate market trends.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-3.64%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.07%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Starwood reported an EPS of $0.39, slightly below the estimate of $0.40, resulting in a stock decline of 1.66% the following day. The company has shown mixed performance in previous quarters, with a recent history of both beats and misses.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Starwood's upcoming earnings, given the mixed results in previous quarters. The focus will be on whether the company can improve its EPS and revenue performance.

Bull Case

If Starwood can report better-than-expected EPS and show growth in its loan portfolio, it could signal a recovery and lead to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates again and shows signs of weakness in its loan portfolio, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure is critical for assessing profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment.

How is the loan portfolio performing in the current economic environment?

Understanding the health of the loan portfolio will provide insights into potential risks and growth opportunities for the company.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for recovery in Starwood's loan portfolio, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Starwood has a history of surprising on the upside, with a 63% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility and potential for a positive surprise.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.42, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching EPS and loan portfolio performance as indicators of the company's financial health.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.42 or higher would confirm a bullish outlook for the company.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.39 would reinforce the bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.37%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 8%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.4% while STWD has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.5%

Calls (56K)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (109K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Starwood beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.84%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.21%, reinforcing existing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the performance of the loan portfolio and its impact on earnings.
2Management's outlook on interest rates and their effect on future lending.
3Details on any new investments or strategic initiatives that could drive growth.
4Insights into the competitive landscape and how Starwood is positioned.
5Any commentary on economic conditions that could affect real estate markets.

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Company Snapshot

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on commercial mortgage lending and real estate investments....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS gives insight into the company's profitability and is a key indicator for investors.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its lending and investment operations.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

STWD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-3.64%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.07%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Starwood can report better-than-expected EPS and show growth in its loan portfolio, it could signal a recovery and lead to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates again and shows signs of weakness in its loan portfolio, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure is critical for assessing profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment.

How is the loan portfolio performing in the current economic environment?

Understanding the health of the loan portfolio will provide insights into potential risks and growth opportunities for the company.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for recovery in Starwood's loan portfolio, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Starwood has a history of surprising on the upside, with a 63% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility and potential for a positive surprise.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.42, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching EPS and loan portfolio performance as indicators of the company's financial health.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.42 or higher would confirm a bullish outlook for the company.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.39 would reinforce the bearish sentiment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.37%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 8%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.4% while STWD has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.5%

Calls (56K)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (109K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Starwood beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.84%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.21%, reinforcing existing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the performance of the loan portfolio and its impact on earnings.
2Management's outlook on interest rates and their effect on future lending.
3Details on any new investments or strategic initiatives that could drive growth.
4Insights into the competitive landscape and how Starwood is positioned.
5Any commentary on economic conditions that could affect real estate markets.