Equity Profile

TERN

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Health CarePharmaceuticals$6.1B

May7Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on developing innovative therapies for patients with serious diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$-0.26

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$0M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TERN Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on developing innovative therapies for patients with serious diseases. With a market cap of $6 billion, Terns is part of the pharmaceuticals industry, which is currently seeing significant interest due to advancements in drug development and personalized medicine.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

-20.48%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.97%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Terns reported an EPS of $-1.03, significantly missing expectations of $-0.29. The stock reacted negatively, declining 0.08% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Terns to report a loss of $0.26 per share with no revenue. The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, which could influence investor sentiment.

Bull Case

If Terns can beat the EPS estimate and provide positive updates on its drug pipeline, it could lead to a strong stock performance, as seen in previous quarters.

Bear Case

A continued trend of larger-than-expected losses or lack of revenue could raise concerns about the company's viability and lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.26

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$0M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Terns report an EPS closer to the consensus estimate of $-0.26 or better?

A smaller loss than expected could indicate improved operational efficiency and investor confidence.

What updates will management provide regarding the drug pipeline and potential revenue generation?

Insights into the pipeline could significantly impact future revenue expectations and stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Terns' ability to narrow its losses this quarter, given its history of beating EPS estimates despite recent struggles.

Supporting Evidence

Terns has an 88% EPS beat rate historically, indicating potential for a positive surprise.

Options are pricing a move of only 1.04%, suggesting that the market may not be fully accounting for the potential upside.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than $-0.22, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for Terns to improve its earnings performance against the backdrop of its recent struggles.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $-0.22 or better would confirm a positive outlook for the company.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-0.32 would raise concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±1.04%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a modest move of about 1.04%, indicating that investors expect limited volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±1.0% while TERN has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

30d HV

17.6%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Terns beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.12%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If Terns misses expectations, the stock could decline by around 0.08%, reflecting ongoing concerns about profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the drug pipeline and expected timelines for revenue generation.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
3Insights into market demand for Terns' products.
4Any changes to guidance or future expectations.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent performance and future outlook.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on developing innovative therapies for patients with serious diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$-0.26

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$0M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TERN Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

-20.48%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.97%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Terns reported an EPS of $-1.03, significantly missing expectations of $-0.29. The stock reacted negatively, declining 0.08% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Terns to report a loss of $0.26 per share with no revenue. The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, which could influence investor sentiment.

Bull Case

If Terns can beat the EPS estimate and provide positive updates on its drug pipeline, it could lead to a strong stock performance, as seen in previous quarters.

Bear Case

A continued trend of larger-than-expected losses or lack of revenue could raise concerns about the company's viability and lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.26

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$0M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Terns report an EPS closer to the consensus estimate of $-0.26 or better?

A smaller loss than expected could indicate improved operational efficiency and investor confidence.

What updates will management provide regarding the drug pipeline and potential revenue generation?

Insights into the pipeline could significantly impact future revenue expectations and stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Terns' ability to narrow its losses this quarter, given its history of beating EPS estimates despite recent struggles.

Supporting Evidence

Terns has an 88% EPS beat rate historically, indicating potential for a positive surprise.

Options are pricing a move of only 1.04%, suggesting that the market may not be fully accounting for the potential upside.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than $-0.22, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for Terns to improve its earnings performance against the backdrop of its recent struggles.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $-0.22 or better would confirm a positive outlook for the company.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-0.32 would raise concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±1.04%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a modest move of about 1.04%, indicating that investors expect limited volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±1.0% while TERN has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

30d HV

17.6%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Terns beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.12%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If Terns misses expectations, the stock could decline by around 0.08%, reflecting ongoing concerns about profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the drug pipeline and expected timelines for revenue generation.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
3Insights into market demand for Terns' products.
4Any changes to guidance or future expectations.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent performance and future outlook.