Equity Profile

TKC

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S.

Communication ServicesWireless Telecommunication Services$5.0B

May11Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close1:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. is a leading telecommunications company in Turkey, providing mobile and fixed-line services....

Key Metrics to Watch

Subscriber Growth

This metric indicates how well Turkcell is attracting and retaining customers, which is crucial for revenue growth.

Expected to show a steady increase.

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

ARPU reflects the company's ability to monetize its subscriber base effectively, impacting overall profitability.

Expected to remain stable or improve slightly.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TKC Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. is a leading telecommunications company in Turkey, providing mobile and fixed-line services. As a key player in the Communication Services sector, it plays a vital role in connecting consumers and businesses, especially in a rapidly evolving digital landscape.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-48.26%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.72%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Turkcell reported disappointing earnings, missing analyst expectations significantly. The stock reacted negatively, reflecting investor concerns about growth and profitability.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to improving customer service and network quality.
They indicated plans to expand digital services and offerings.
Management expressed intentions to optimize operational costs.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts are cautious heading into this earnings report, given the company's recent performance and missed expectations. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in subscriber growth and profitability.

Bull Case

If Turkcell shows strong subscriber growth and improved ARPU, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence and stock performance.

Bear Case

Conversely, continued subscriber losses or stagnant ARPU could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Key Metrics to Watch

Subscriber Growth

Expected to show a steady increase.

This metric indicates how well Turkcell is attracting and retaining customers, which is crucial for revenue growth.

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

Expected to remain stable or improve slightly.

ARPU reflects the company's ability to monetize its subscriber base effectively, impacting overall profitability.

Capital Expenditure (CapEx)

Expected to be in line with previous quarters.

CapEx is important for understanding Turkcell's investment in network infrastructure and technology, which can drive future growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current subscriber growth rate and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Subscriber growth is critical for Turkcell's revenue, and any significant changes could impact investor confidence.

What are the latest trends in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)?

ARPU trends will indicate how effectively Turkcell is monetizing its subscriber base, which is vital for profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Turkcell's potential for subscriber recovery due to recent investments in digital services and network improvements.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 6.5% move, but the stock has averaged only 2.14% in historical moves.

The company's commitment to enhancing customer service may lead to improved retention rates.

Recent trends in mobile data consumption suggest a growing demand for Turkcell's services.

Key Risk

If subscriber growth exceeds 5%, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on subscriber metrics and revenue generation, which are critical for future growth.

Bull Confirmed If

A subscriber growth rate of over 5% quarter-over-quarter would confirm the bullish case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in ARPU below the previous quarter's level would confirm the bearish case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.52%

Historical Avg

±2.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while TKC has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

25.9%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Communication Services

n=30

Fade rate: 16 of 30 (53%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Communication Services in the last 2 years. 16 of 30 faded and 14 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.6% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

6.40%

of float

Insider

2.07%

of float

Holders

200

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Morgan Stanley
11,219,091 sh · $71.4M
1.27%
-1.0%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Turkcell beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.79%, confirming a positive shift in growth outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience muted movement as investors digest the information.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of approximately 2.43%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on subscriber growth and retention strategies.
2Any commentary on ARPU trends and pricing strategies.
3Insights into capital expenditures and future investments.
4Management's perspective on competitive pressures in the market.
5Plans for expanding digital services and their expected impact on revenue.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. is a leading telecommunications company in Turkey, providing mobile and fixed-line services....

Key Metrics to Watch

Subscriber Growth

This metric indicates how well Turkcell is attracting and retaining customers, which is crucial for revenue growth.

Expected to show a steady increase.

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

ARPU reflects the company's ability to monetize its subscriber base effectively, impacting overall profitability.

Expected to remain stable or improve slightly.

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TKC Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-48.26%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.72%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Turkcell reported disappointing earnings, missing analyst expectations significantly. The stock reacted negatively, reflecting investor concerns about growth and profitability.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to improving customer service and network quality.
They indicated plans to expand digital services and offerings.
Management expressed intentions to optimize operational costs.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Turkcell shows strong subscriber growth and improved ARPU, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence and stock performance.

Bear Case

Conversely, continued subscriber losses or stagnant ARPU could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Key Metrics to Watch

Subscriber Growth

Expected to show a steady increase.

This metric indicates how well Turkcell is attracting and retaining customers, which is crucial for revenue growth.

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

Expected to remain stable or improve slightly.

ARPU reflects the company's ability to monetize its subscriber base effectively, impacting overall profitability.

Capital Expenditure (CapEx)

Expected to be in line with previous quarters.

CapEx is important for understanding Turkcell's investment in network infrastructure and technology, which can drive future growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the current subscriber growth rate and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Subscriber growth is critical for Turkcell's revenue, and any significant changes could impact investor confidence.

What are the latest trends in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)?

ARPU trends will indicate how effectively Turkcell is monetizing its subscriber base, which is vital for profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Turkcell's potential for subscriber recovery due to recent investments in digital services and network improvements.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 6.5% move, but the stock has averaged only 2.14% in historical moves.

The company's commitment to enhancing customer service may lead to improved retention rates.

Recent trends in mobile data consumption suggest a growing demand for Turkcell's services.

Key Risk

If subscriber growth exceeds 5%, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on subscriber metrics and revenue generation, which are critical for future growth.

Bull Confirmed If

A subscriber growth rate of over 5% quarter-over-quarter would confirm the bullish case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in ARPU below the previous quarter's level would confirm the bearish case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.52%

Historical Avg

±2.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while TKC has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

25.9%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Communication Services

n=30

Fade rate: 16 of 30 (53%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

6.40%

of float

Insider

2.07%

of float

Holders

200

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Morgan Stanley
11,219,091 sh · $71.4M
1.27%
-1.0%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Turkcell beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.79%, confirming a positive shift in growth outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience muted movement as investors digest the information.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of approximately 2.43%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on subscriber growth and retention strategies.
2Any commentary on ARPU trends and pricing strategies.
3Insights into capital expenditures and future investments.
4Management's perspective on competitive pressures in the market.
5Plans for expanding digital services and their expected impact on revenue.