Equity Profile

TKC

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S.

Communication ServicesWireless Telecommunication Services$5.0B

May11Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close1:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. is a leading telecommunications provider in Turkey, offering wireless services and digital solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

Subscriber Growth

Tracking the number of active subscribers is crucial as it directly impacts revenue and market share.

2% YoY growth

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

ARPU indicates how much revenue the company generates per subscriber, reflecting pricing power and service value.

$5.50

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TKC Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. is a leading telecommunications provider in Turkey, offering wireless services and digital solutions. As a key player in the Communication Services sector, the company is positioned to benefit from trends in mobile connectivity and digital transformation.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-48.26%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.72%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Turkcell reported disappointing earnings, missing analyst expectations significantly. The company's stock reacted negatively, reflecting investor concerns about its growth trajectory.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to improving customer service and network quality.
They indicated plans to expand digital services offerings.
A focus on cost management was emphasized to improve profitability.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts are cautious about Turkcell's upcoming earnings, given its recent performance and the competitive landscape. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in subscriber growth and revenue.

Bull Case

If Turkcell can demonstrate strong subscriber growth and improved ARPU, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence and stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss expectations on subscriber growth or fails to control costs, it may face further declines in stock value.

Key Metrics to Watch

Subscriber Growth

2% YoY growth

Tracking the number of active subscribers is crucial as it directly impacts revenue and market share.

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

$5.50

ARPU indicates how much revenue the company generates per subscriber, reflecting pricing power and service value.

Capital Expenditures

$200 million

Investments in infrastructure are essential for maintaining service quality and supporting future growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the subscriber growth rate for Q1-2026?

Subscriber growth is a key indicator of the company's market position and revenue potential, making it a focal point for investor sentiment.

How has the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) changed this quarter?

Changes in ARPU will provide insights into pricing strategies and customer engagement, which are critical for future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Turkcell's potential for subscriber recovery due to recent investments in digital services, which could drive new customer acquisition.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 6.5% move, but the stock has only averaged 2.14% over the last 8 quarters.

Management's focus on improving customer service may lead to better retention rates than anticipated.

Key Risk

If subscriber growth exceeds 3%, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on Turkcell's ability to attract and retain subscribers while managing pricing effectively.

Bull Confirmed If

Subscriber growth of 4% YoY or better with ARPU exceeding $5.50.

Bear Confirmed If

Subscriber growth below 1% YoY or ARPU declining to $5.00 or lower.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.52%

Historical Avg

±2.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while TKC has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

25.9%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Communication Services

n=30

Fade rate: 16 of 30 (53%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Communication Services in the last 2 years. 16 of 30 faded and 14 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.6% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

6.40%

of float

Insider

2.07%

of float

Holders

200

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Morgan Stanley
11,219,091 sh · $71.4M
1.27%
-1.0%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Turkcell beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.79%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report may lead to muted stock movement as investors await clearer signals of recovery.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates an average decline of 2.43%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on subscriber growth and retention strategies.
2Updates on digital service offerings and their impact on revenue.
3Management's outlook on competitive pressures in the telecommunications market.
4Any changes in pricing strategy affecting ARPU.
5Insights into cost management efforts and their expected impact on profitability.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

May8

HEReported

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc.

RecapView

May8

JHGReported

Company Snapshot

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. is a leading telecommunications provider in Turkey, offering wireless services and digital solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

Subscriber Growth

Tracking the number of active subscribers is crucial as it directly impacts revenue and market share.

2% YoY growth

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

ARPU indicates how much revenue the company generates per subscriber, reflecting pricing power and service value.

$5.50

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TKC Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-48.26%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.72%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to improving customer service and network quality.
They indicated plans to expand digital services offerings.
A focus on cost management was emphasized to improve profitability.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Turkcell can demonstrate strong subscriber growth and improved ARPU, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence and stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss expectations on subscriber growth or fails to control costs, it may face further declines in stock value.

Key Metrics to Watch

Subscriber Growth

2% YoY growth

Tracking the number of active subscribers is crucial as it directly impacts revenue and market share.

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

$5.50

ARPU indicates how much revenue the company generates per subscriber, reflecting pricing power and service value.

Capital Expenditures

$200 million

Investments in infrastructure are essential for maintaining service quality and supporting future growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the subscriber growth rate for Q1-2026?

Subscriber growth is a key indicator of the company's market position and revenue potential, making it a focal point for investor sentiment.

How has the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) changed this quarter?

Changes in ARPU will provide insights into pricing strategies and customer engagement, which are critical for future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Turkcell's potential for subscriber recovery due to recent investments in digital services, which could drive new customer acquisition.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 6.5% move, but the stock has only averaged 2.14% over the last 8 quarters.

Management's focus on improving customer service may lead to better retention rates than anticipated.

Key Risk

If subscriber growth exceeds 3%, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on Turkcell's ability to attract and retain subscribers while managing pricing effectively.

Bull Confirmed If

Subscriber growth of 4% YoY or better with ARPU exceeding $5.50.

Bear Confirmed If

Subscriber growth below 1% YoY or ARPU declining to $5.00 or lower.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.52%

Historical Avg

±2.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±6.5% while TKC has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

25.9%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Communication Services

n=30

Fade rate: 16 of 30 (53%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

6.40%

of float

Insider

2.07%

of float

Holders

200

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Morgan Stanley
11,219,091 sh · $71.4M
1.27%
-1.0%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Turkcell beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.79%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report may lead to muted stock movement as investors await clearer signals of recovery.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates an average decline of 2.43%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on subscriber growth and retention strategies.
2Updates on digital service offerings and their impact on revenue.
3Management's outlook on competitive pressures in the telecommunications market.
4Any changes in pricing strategy affecting ARPU.
5Insights into cost management efforts and their expected impact on profitability.