Equity Profile

TKO

TKO Group Holdings, Inc.

Communication ServicesMovies & Entertainment$15.3B

May14Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. operates in the Communication Services sector, focusing on movies and entertainment....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a critical measure of a company's profitability and performance, which investors closely watch.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to expand its business and attract more customers, essential for long-term success.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TKO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. operates in the Communication Services sector, focusing on movies and entertainment. As a player in this industry, TKO is influenced by trends in consumer spending and the ongoing evolution of digital content consumption.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-18.03%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.72%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, TKO reported an EPS of $1.12, beating estimates by 23.35%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.89% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for TKO's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its recent positive momentum.

Bull Case

If TKO can deliver strong earnings and revenue growth, it may signal a robust recovery in consumer demand for entertainment, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if TKO fails to meet earnings expectations or shows signs of declining revenue, it could lead to a negative market reaction, especially given the mixed performance in previous quarters.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

How is TKO addressing competition in the entertainment sector?

Understanding TKO's competitive strategy will provide insights into its future growth potential and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating TKO's ability to capitalize on the resurgence in consumer spending on entertainment, especially given recent positive trends.

Supporting Evidence

TKO's recent EPS beat suggests stronger operational performance than anticipated.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting heightened investor interest.

Historical performance shows that TKO has a mixed track record, which could lead to overreactions in either direction.

Key Risk

If TKO's EPS comes in above $1.20, it could challenge the cautious outlook and shift investor sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it will reveal TKO's ability to sustain growth in a competitive market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.20 or higher would confirm strong profitability and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.90 would indicate potential issues with profitability and could lead to a sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.86%

Historical Avg

±2.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of nearly 7%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.4% while TKO has averaged ±2.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

28.9%

Calls (204K)P/C Ratio: 0.03Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Communication Services

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 28 (46%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Communication Services in the last 2 years. 13 of 28 faded and 15 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.9%, with a raw directional average of +1.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If TKO beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.89%, confirming a positive growth trajectory.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may remain flat as investors await further clarity on future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.70%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new content releases and their expected impact on revenue.
2Insights into cost management strategies and their effect on margins.
3Discussion on audience engagement metrics and how they compare to industry benchmarks.
4Clarification on competitive positioning and market share trends.
5Management's outlook on future quarters and any guidance on expected challenges.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. operates in the Communication Services sector, focusing on movies and entertainment....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a critical measure of a company's profitability and performance, which investors closely watch.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to expand its business and attract more customers, essential for long-term success.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TKO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-18.03%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.72%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, TKO reported an EPS of $1.12, beating estimates by 23.35%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.89% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for TKO's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its recent positive momentum.

Bull Case

If TKO can deliver strong earnings and revenue growth, it may signal a robust recovery in consumer demand for entertainment, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if TKO fails to meet earnings expectations or shows signs of declining revenue, it could lead to a negative market reaction, especially given the mixed performance in previous quarters.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

How is TKO addressing competition in the entertainment sector?

Understanding TKO's competitive strategy will provide insights into its future growth potential and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating TKO's ability to capitalize on the resurgence in consumer spending on entertainment, especially given recent positive trends.

Supporting Evidence

TKO's recent EPS beat suggests stronger operational performance than anticipated.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting heightened investor interest.

Historical performance shows that TKO has a mixed track record, which could lead to overreactions in either direction.

Key Risk

If TKO's EPS comes in above $1.20, it could challenge the cautious outlook and shift investor sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it will reveal TKO's ability to sustain growth in a competitive market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.20 or higher would confirm strong profitability and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.90 would indicate potential issues with profitability and could lead to a sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.86%

Historical Avg

±2.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of nearly 7%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.4% while TKO has averaged ±2.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

28.9%

Calls (204K)P/C Ratio: 0.03Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Communication Services

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 28 (46%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If TKO beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.89%, confirming a positive growth trajectory.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may remain flat as investors await further clarity on future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.70%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new content releases and their expected impact on revenue.
2Insights into cost management strategies and their effect on margins.
3Discussion on audience engagement metrics and how they compare to industry benchmarks.
4Clarification on competitive positioning and market share trends.
5Management's outlook on future quarters and any guidance on expected challenges.