Equity Profile

TOL

Toll Brothers, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryHomebuilding$12.9B

Aug18Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is a leading homebuilder in the consumer discretionary sector, known for its luxury homes and communities....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Expected to be around $2.72.

New Home Sales

This metric reflects demand in the housing market, which directly impacts Toll Brothers' revenue and growth potential.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TOL Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is a leading homebuilder in the consumer discretionary sector, known for its luxury homes and communities. As the housing market fluctuates, the company's performance is closely tied to consumer spending and interest rates, making it a key player in the homebuilding industry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.76%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, Toll Brothers reported an EPS of $2.72, exceeding expectations by 5.39%. However, the stock declined by 2.23% the following day, indicating some investor caution despite the positive earnings surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on increasing home deliveries.
Commitment to maintaining strong profit margins.
Plans to expand into new markets.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect Toll Brothers to continue showing resilience in a challenging housing market, with a focus on luxury home sales. Investors are looking for signs of sustained demand despite economic pressures.

Bull Case

If Toll Brothers can demonstrate strong new home sales and maintain or increase its average selling prices, it could signal robust demand and pricing power, driving stock prices higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports weaker-than-expected sales or declining margins, it could raise concerns about its ability to navigate the current housing market challenges.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Expected to be around $2.72.

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

New Home Sales

N/A

This metric reflects demand in the housing market, which directly impacts Toll Brothers' revenue and growth potential.

Average Selling Price (ASP)

N/A

ASP provides insight into the company's pricing power and market positioning within the luxury home segment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the average selling price for new homes this quarter?

This metric will indicate whether Toll Brothers is successfully maintaining its luxury market position amidst economic pressures.

How many new home sales were recorded in the quarter?

Sales figures will provide insight into demand trends and the company's ability to navigate the current housing market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Toll Brothers' ability to maintain strong sales in the luxury segment, despite broader economic challenges.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical performance shows resilience in luxury home sales even during downturns.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, suggesting that investors are bracing for potential surprises.

Recent insider selling could indicate a strategic repositioning rather than a lack of confidence in the company's future.

Key Risk

If new home sales exceed expectations, it could challenge the consensus view of a slowing housing market.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around Toll Brothers' ability to sustain demand and pricing power in a fluctuating housing market.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS above $2.72 and reporting strong new home sales would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.50 and declining sales would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.28%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.3% while TOL has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

43.9%

Calls (52K)P/C Ratio: 1.03Puts (19K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$139,700.00

1,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$139,700.00

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Toll Brothers beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.34%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report may lead to muted stock movement as investors assess management's commentary on future sales and pricing.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, the stock could decline by approximately 0.83%, raising concerns about its market position.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on new home sales figures and trends.
2Insights on average selling prices and any changes in pricing strategy.
3Management's outlook on market conditions and demand for luxury homes.
4Updates on expansion plans into new markets.
5Any commentary on cost management and profit margins.

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Company Snapshot

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is a leading homebuilder in the consumer discretionary sector, known for its luxury homes and communities....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Expected to be around $2.72.

New Home Sales

This metric reflects demand in the housing market, which directly impacts Toll Brothers' revenue and growth potential.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TOL Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.12%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.76%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on increasing home deliveries.
Commitment to maintaining strong profit margins.
Plans to expand into new markets.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Toll Brothers can demonstrate strong new home sales and maintain or increase its average selling prices, it could signal robust demand and pricing power, driving stock prices higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports weaker-than-expected sales or declining margins, it could raise concerns about its ability to navigate the current housing market challenges.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Expected to be around $2.72.

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

New Home Sales

N/A

This metric reflects demand in the housing market, which directly impacts Toll Brothers' revenue and growth potential.

Average Selling Price (ASP)

N/A

ASP provides insight into the company's pricing power and market positioning within the luxury home segment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the average selling price for new homes this quarter?

This metric will indicate whether Toll Brothers is successfully maintaining its luxury market position amidst economic pressures.

How many new home sales were recorded in the quarter?

Sales figures will provide insight into demand trends and the company's ability to navigate the current housing market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Toll Brothers' ability to maintain strong sales in the luxury segment, despite broader economic challenges.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical performance shows resilience in luxury home sales even during downturns.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, suggesting that investors are bracing for potential surprises.

Recent insider selling could indicate a strategic repositioning rather than a lack of confidence in the company's future.

Key Risk

If new home sales exceed expectations, it could challenge the consensus view of a slowing housing market.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around Toll Brothers' ability to sustain demand and pricing power in a fluctuating housing market.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS above $2.72 and reporting strong new home sales would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.50 and declining sales would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±16.28%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±16.3% while TOL has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

43.9%

Calls (52K)P/C Ratio: 1.03Puts (19K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$139,700.00

1,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$139,700.00

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Toll Brothers beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.34%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report may lead to muted stock movement as investors assess management's commentary on future sales and pricing.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, the stock could decline by approximately 0.83%, raising concerns about its market position.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on new home sales figures and trends.
2Insights on average selling prices and any changes in pricing strategy.
3Management's outlook on market conditions and demand for luxury homes.
4Updates on expansion plans into new markets.
5Any commentary on cost management and profit margins.