Equity Profile

TXRH

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryRestaurants$12.6B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. operates a chain of casual dining restaurants known for their steaks and Texas-style hospitality....

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric indicates how well existing locations are performing, which is crucial for assessing overall business health.

5.0%

Total Revenue

Total revenue gives a broad view of the company's sales performance and growth trajectory.

$1.1B

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TXRH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. operates a chain of casual dining restaurants known for their steaks and Texas-style hospitality. As a player in the consumer discretionary sector, it reflects trends in consumer spending and dining preferences, which can be influenced by economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-2.35%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Texas Roadhouse reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.87, matching analyst expectations with a slight positive surprise. However, the stock experienced a modest decline of 1.10% the following day, reflecting market caution.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency.
Commitment to menu innovation and expanding delivery options.
Plans to open new locations in key markets.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Texas Roadhouse's upcoming earnings, with expectations for steady growth in same-store sales and revenue. However, concerns about rising costs and competition in the casual dining sector linger.

Bull Case

If the company reports strong same-store sales growth and effective cost management, it could signal robust demand and operational strength, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the earnings report reveals disappointing sales figures or rising costs that squeeze margins, it could lead to a negative reassessment of the company's growth prospects.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

5.0%

This metric indicates how well existing locations are performing, which is crucial for assessing overall business health.

Total Revenue

$1.1B

Total revenue gives a broad view of the company's sales performance and growth trajectory.

Operating Margin

15.5%

Operating margin reflects the company's efficiency in managing its costs relative to its revenue.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported same-store sales growth for Q2-2026?

This figure will indicate customer demand and the effectiveness of the company's strategies in a competitive market.

How will management address rising costs and their impact on operating margins?

Understanding management's approach to cost control will be crucial for assessing future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for strong same-store sales growth driven by Texas Roadhouse's customer loyalty and brand strength.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in consumer spending indicate a rebound in dining out, which could favor Texas Roadhouse.

The company's commitment to menu innovation and customer experience may drive higher traffic.

Options pricing suggests a larger expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth exceeds 6%, it could challenge the cautious outlook currently held by analysts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the balance between revenue growth and cost control in a challenging economic environment.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of 6% or better would confirm strong consumer demand.

Bear Confirmed If

Operating margin below 14% would raise concerns about cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.27%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.3% while TXRH has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

41.5%

Calls (5K)P/C Ratio: 0.41Puts (14K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Texas Roadhouse beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.29%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors weigh future uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 0.64%, reflecting disappointment in growth prospects.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on same-store sales performance and customer traffic trends.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into new menu items and customer feedback.
4Any commentary on expansion plans and new restaurant openings.
5Management's outlook on the broader economic environment and its impact on consumer spending.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Danaos Corporation

Company Snapshot

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. operates a chain of casual dining restaurants known for their steaks and Texas-style hospitality....

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric indicates how well existing locations are performing, which is crucial for assessing overall business health.

5.0%

Total Revenue

Total revenue gives a broad view of the company's sales performance and growth trajectory.

$1.1B

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TXRH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-2.35%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.67%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency.
Commitment to menu innovation and expanding delivery options.
Plans to open new locations in key markets.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the company reports strong same-store sales growth and effective cost management, it could signal robust demand and operational strength, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the earnings report reveals disappointing sales figures or rising costs that squeeze margins, it could lead to a negative reassessment of the company's growth prospects.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

5.0%

This metric indicates how well existing locations are performing, which is crucial for assessing overall business health.

Total Revenue

$1.1B

Total revenue gives a broad view of the company's sales performance and growth trajectory.

Operating Margin

15.5%

Operating margin reflects the company's efficiency in managing its costs relative to its revenue.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported same-store sales growth for Q2-2026?

This figure will indicate customer demand and the effectiveness of the company's strategies in a competitive market.

How will management address rising costs and their impact on operating margins?

Understanding management's approach to cost control will be crucial for assessing future profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for strong same-store sales growth driven by Texas Roadhouse's customer loyalty and brand strength.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in consumer spending indicate a rebound in dining out, which could favor Texas Roadhouse.

The company's commitment to menu innovation and customer experience may drive higher traffic.

Options pricing suggests a larger expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth exceeds 6%, it could challenge the cautious outlook currently held by analysts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the balance between revenue growth and cost control in a challenging economic environment.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of 6% or better would confirm strong consumer demand.

Bear Confirmed If

Operating margin below 14% would raise concerns about cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.27%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.3% while TXRH has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

41.5%

Calls (5K)P/C Ratio: 0.41Puts (14K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Texas Roadhouse beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.29%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors weigh future uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 0.64%, reflecting disappointment in growth prospects.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on same-store sales performance and customer traffic trends.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into new menu items and customer feedback.
4Any commentary on expansion plans and new restaurant openings.
5Management's outlook on the broader economic environment and its impact on consumer spending.