Equity Profile

UGP

Ultrapar ParticipaÃ§Ãµes S.A.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$5.2B

May6Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. operates in the automotive retail sector, focusing on consumer discretionary products....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Ultrapar is managing its costs and revenues.

$0.13

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

$37.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UGP Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. operates in the automotive retail sector, focusing on consumer discretionary products. With a market cap of $7 billion, the company plays a significant role in the automotive market, which is influenced by consumer spending trends and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ultrapar reported earnings that met expectations, but revenue figures were not disclosed. The stock reacted modestly, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Ultrapar to report earnings of $0.13 per share on revenues of $37.3 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of growth or challenges in the automotive retail sector.

Bull Case

If Ultrapar can exceed revenue expectations, it may signal strong consumer demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses revenue targets or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about market conditions and consumer spending, negatively impacting the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.13

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Ultrapar is managing its costs and revenues.

Revenue

$37.3B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the revenue figure be for Q1-2026?

This number will be critical in assessing the company's performance and market demand, influencing investor sentiment.

How does management view the current consumer spending trends?

Understanding management's perspective on consumer behavior will help gauge future performance and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Ultrapar's ability to capitalize on emerging trends in automotive retail, particularly if consumer spending rebounds.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 6.63% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Ultrapar has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, suggesting potential for positive surprises.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $32.2 billion, it could undermine confidence in the company's growth prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Ultrapar can maintain its growth trajectory amid fluctuating consumer spending.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue exceeding $37.3 billion would confirm strong market demand and effective sales strategies.

Bear Confirmed If

Revenue falling below $32.2 billion would raise concerns about declining consumer interest and market challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.63%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility.

Options are pricing ±6.6% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

31.7%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 22 (36%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 14 of 22 (64%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 7.8%, with a raw directional average of +0.3% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

5.99%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

180

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.55%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical averages showing a potential drop of around 1.73%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer spending trends and their impact on sales.
2Management's outlook on the automotive market for the remainder of the year.
3Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Insights into competitive pressures within the automotive retail sector.
5Any commentary on future growth initiatives or market expansions.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. operates in the automotive retail sector, focusing on consumer discretionary products....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Ultrapar is managing its costs and revenues.

$0.13

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

$37.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UGP Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ultrapar reported earnings that met expectations, but revenue figures were not disclosed. The stock reacted modestly, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Ultrapar to report earnings of $0.13 per share on revenues of $37.3 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of growth or challenges in the automotive retail sector.

Bull Case

If Ultrapar can exceed revenue expectations, it may signal strong consumer demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses revenue targets or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about market conditions and consumer spending, negatively impacting the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.13

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Ultrapar is managing its costs and revenues.

Revenue

$37.3B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the revenue figure be for Q1-2026?

This number will be critical in assessing the company's performance and market demand, influencing investor sentiment.

How does management view the current consumer spending trends?

Understanding management's perspective on consumer behavior will help gauge future performance and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Ultrapar's ability to capitalize on emerging trends in automotive retail, particularly if consumer spending rebounds.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 6.63% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with historical performance.

Ultrapar has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, suggesting potential for positive surprises.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $32.2 billion, it could undermine confidence in the company's growth prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Ultrapar can maintain its growth trajectory amid fluctuating consumer spending.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue exceeding $37.3 billion would confirm strong market demand and effective sales strategies.

Bear Confirmed If

Revenue falling below $32.2 billion would raise concerns about declining consumer interest and market challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.63%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility.

Options are pricing ±6.6% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

31.7%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 22 (36%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

5.99%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

180

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.55%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical averages showing a potential drop of around 1.73%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer spending trends and their impact on sales.
2Management's outlook on the automotive market for the remainder of the year.
3Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Insights into competitive pressures within the automotive retail sector.
5Any commentary on future growth initiatives or market expansions.